Playoff odds39% → 43%CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: vs. ALAAlabama
Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET · ALANo. 9 Alabama is 6-2 · First meeting between Kiffin and Kalen DeBoer as head coaches · LSU’s chance to win: 57% (the site’s model)
His week
“Most talented team we've played”
LSU head coach Lane Kiffin offers thoughts on Alabama, QB Keelon Russell
I think LSU is maybe one of the most likely eventual champions, but they are so low bc they don’t have a great win yet. Seems pretty clear to me this year the rationale is a great win is almost as much a positive as a loss is negative, and I honestly don’t hate it if they just get a bit more consistent with it bc there’s still all kinds of silly reasoning.
Tyler from Shreveport La, Geaux Tigahs!!! LSU!!! I want to go to the SEC championship game with y'all!!
No rat poison here. Thanks to the cfp for the billboard material.
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 19th of 138 per play. Defense: 2nd.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is LSU. The other two rows are where LSU stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Sat Nov 7vs. ALAAlabama (6-2)57%
Sat Nov 14vs. TEXTexas (6-2)67%
Sat Nov 21at TENNTennessee (6-2)67%
Sat Nov 28at ARKArkansas (3-5)97%
Percent: LSU’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
LSU has held at 10th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▲ Higher
Age 51 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in, a former NFL head coach
▼ Lower
His first season at LSU
▲ Higher
No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 24W 38-17 at AuburnThat's the Lane Kiffin we hired.LSULSU fan
Oct 17W 31-0 vs. Mississippi StateLane Kiffin thinks Froot Loops are all different flavors.LSULSU fan
Oct 10L 34-35 at KentuckyKiffin is not a very good coach. I’ll be glad when he is goneLSULSU fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 3W 63-14 vs. McNeeseWhat was Kiffin yelling at the team? Wrong answers onlyLSULSU fan
Sep 26W 35-6 vs. Texas A&MI’ve thoroughly enjoyed lane kiffin not being mentioned every 5 secondsLSULSU fan
Sep 19L 24-32 at Ole MissFair play Rebels... You'll always have that first stomping over Kiffin... See y'all next year and onwardsLSULSU fan
Sep 12W 45-14 vs. Louisiana TechWe finished paying out his buyout money in December before we hired KiffinLSULSU fan
Sep 5W 51-10 vs. ClemsonBe so funny if this lost ends up with Dabo finally retiring and Kiffin taking the Clemson job.LSULSU fan
Dozens of stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: Alabama
2nd of 104 FBS head coaches · from many outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Most about: press conference and quotes, game preview, lawsuit or investigation.
Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State and Texas all move on in the CFP + tweeting at Lane KiffinDec 23
Lane Kiffin Thinks Big Ten, Pac-12 Players Should Transfer Without PenaltyAug 18
Lane Kiffin believes players not playing this fall should be able to transfer and play immediatelyAug 19
A toilet flush was caught on mic during a Lane Kiffin phone interviewOct 1
Lane Kiffin fined for remarks about SEC Officiating 'secrecy'Oct 26Reported
Florida AtlanticSeveral stories2017 to 2019
Most about: conference and schedule, contract and pay, press conference and quotes.
Lane Kiffin attempts to recruit 5* Guard on TwitterAug 28
Lane Kiffin becomes first coach to offer a female offensive lineman.Aug 28
The inside story of Lane Kiffin’s season at Tennessee, 10 years laterSep 18
World Chicken War III, Lane Kiffin 2020, & Championship Weekend PreviewDec 4
[Deckelbaum] Lane Kiffin was just asked if he will be the head coach at Florida Atlantic next season in an interview on Fox Sports 640 AM in South Florida. There was no answer. Just a long 10 seconds or so of silence, then the show went to break.Dec 5
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2019). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’09
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WUG
Georgia · 2009
45-19
Quality opponent
WVA
Vanderbilt · 2009
31-16
RivalQuality opponent
WKY
Kentucky · 2009
30-24
RivalQuality opponent
Signature losses
LVT
Virginia Tech · 2009
14-37
Bowl/CFP stakes
LAL
Alabama · 2009
10-12
Rival
LMI
Ole Miss · 2009
17-42
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
3-3 against his rivals at USC. Just 1-2 against Brian Kelly.
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
6-7 46.2%
National Program
14-6 70.0%
Regional Program
5-0 100.0%
Signature games
2-7 vs. AP top 25 · 1-4 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’10’11’12
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WND
Notre Dame · 2011
31-17
RivalQuality opponent
WUC
UCLA · 2011
50-0
RivalQuality opponent
WUC
UCLA · 2010
28-14
RivalQuality opponent
Signature losses
LGT
Georgia Tech · 2012
7-21
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUC
UCLA · 2012
28-38
Rival
LND
Notre Dame · 2012
13-22
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
’17 W · wire to wire’18 L · blew a 4-pt lead’19 L · blew a 11-pt lead
covered the spread
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0-1 0.0%ATS —
Power Program
0-2 0.0%ATS —
National Program
3-6 33.3%ATS 2-7 9 of 9
Regional Program
20-4 83.3%ATS 18-6 24 of 24
Signature games
0-5 vs. AP top 25 · 0-3 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’17’18’19
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WAK
Akron · 2017
50-3
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WUN
North Texas · 2017
41-17
Quality opponentConference title game
WLT
Louisiana Tech · 2017
48-23
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LCL
Charlotte · 2018
24-27
Upset
LUC
UCF · 2019
14-48
LOU
Oklahoma · 2018
14-63
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
8-4 against his rivals at Ole Miss. Winless in 4 tries against Nick Saban.
’20 L · blew a 7-pt lead’21 L’22 L · blew a 10-pt lead’23 L · blew a 4-pt lead
covered the spread
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0-3 0.0%ATS —
Blue Blood
4-6 40.0%ATS 5-5 10 of 10
Power Program
14-6 70.0%ATS 8-11-1 20 of 20
National Program
19-4 82.6%ATS 13-10 23 of 23
Regional Program
13-0 100.0%ATS 8-5 13 of 13
Signature games
8-9 vs. AP top 25 · 3-6 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’20’21’22’23’24’25
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WLS
LSU · 2021
31-17
RivalQuality opponent
WLS
LSU · 2025
24-19
RivalQuality opponent
WDU
Duke · 2024
52-20
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
Signature losses
LTT
Texas Tech · 2022
25-42
UpsetBowl/CFP stakes
LLS
LSU · 2022
20-45
RivalUpset
LUG
Georgia · 2023
17-52
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WTA
Texas A&M · 2026
35-6
RivalQuality opponent
WCL
Clemson · 2026
51-10
Quality opponent
WAU
Auburn · 2026
38-17
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LMI
Ole Miss · 2026
24-32
RivalUpset
LKY
Kentucky · 2026
34-35
Upset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
14-9 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Nick Saban.
’09 L’20 L · blew a 7-pt lead’21 L’22 L · blew a 10-pt lead’23 L · blew a 4-pt lead
covered the spread · no line for ’09
0% win rate across a real, 5-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0-3 0.0%ATS —
Blue Blood
5-9 35.7%ATS 7-5 12 of 14
Power Program
23-18 56.1%ATS 11-13-1 25 of 41
National Program
39-19 67.2%ATS 16-18 34 of 58
Regional Program
43-4 91.5%ATS 26-12 38 of 47
Signature games
13-24 vs. AP top 25 · 4-16 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’09’10’11’12’17’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
swipe to see every season
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WLS
LSU · 2021
31-17
RivalQuality opponent
WTA
Texas A&M · 2026
35-6
RivalQuality opponent
WLS
LSU · 2025
24-19
RivalQuality opponent
Signature losses
LVT
Virginia Tech · 2009
14-37
Bowl/CFP stakes
LGT
Georgia Tech · 2012
7-21
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUC
UCLA · 2012
28-38
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that moved, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
USC11.9pt#174 of 449 · a typical amount
Florida Atlantic12.5pt#154 of 449 · a typical amount
Ole Miss9.2pt#261 of 449 · a typical amount
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
None of his LSU classes is ranked and fully his yet. Across his other stops, his own classes averaged #34 nationally.
FAFlorida Atlantic
2018
#75
His class
2019
#60
His class
MIOle Miss
2020
#34
Transition
2021
#18
His class
2022
#23
His class
2023
#23
His class
2024
#21
His class
2025
#16
His class
LSLSU
2026
#11
Transition
Across every program: 7 ranked classes of his own, averaging #34 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least4players
MIOle Miss→LSLSU2026
At least 4 players followed him from Ole Miss to LSU.
Devin Harper OT
Princewill Umanmielen DE
TJ Dottery LB
Winston Watkins WR
TETennessee→USUSC2010
No confirmed followers on this move. This move predates this database’s 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor, so real followers may be undercounted here.
FAFlorida Atlantic→MIOle Miss2020
No confirmed followers on this move. This move predates this database’s 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor, so real followers may be undercounted here.
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
60%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 68 of 113 players. The other 45 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 68Inherited 45
Of his own players on this roster, 53% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 53% of the 68 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+5 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Ole Miss rosters have averaged 5 lb heavier than the FBS average (2020–2025) — heavier than 78% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, Ole Miss’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
USC2010–2012−2 lb
Florida Atlantic2017–2019−11 lb
Ole Miss2020–2025+5 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
LATop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 10 of 19 signees (53%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 7 states in all. Next: FL (3).
Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (19 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
53% of his signees come from LA and its 3 border states.
Off this map: 1 signee to the west (CA).
By region
South
17
Midwest
1
West
1
Roster distance from campus (Tiger Stadium (LA))
median hometown distance
382 mi
within 100 mi
28%
within 500 mi
63%
beyond 1,000 mi
10%
107 of 113 roster players with a known hometown (95% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Got a very good LSU team, as you know. And coach Kiffin’s done a great job bringing a lot of new faces together in a short amount of time
There’s a ‘Lane Kiffin’ rule in the bill, and it prevents a coach from leaving a team before that team’s season is over
I’m thinking about having to send [Kiffin] in on an F-16 and maybe the team on a C-130
First of all, Lane Kiffin is the Kim Kardashian of college football. Wherever she goes or he goes, there’s destruction and carnage in his place
Talking to coach Kiffin, I truly believe with what he does on offense and what we do on defense, you know, the ultimate goal is to bring a national championship to LSU, and I kind of want to see that through
He [Kiffin] believed in me at a very early age…I owe a lot to him for my career and so I think that’s the number one factor
I’ve learnt so much football from [Chris Kiffin], just the technical pieces of the game
Talking to coach Kiffin, I truly believe with what he does on offense and what we do on defense, you know, the ultimate goal is to bring a national championship to LSU, and I kind of want to see that through
Confidence is fragile at every position, but especially at quarterback because it’s the one position you’ve got to do your job with potentially getting hit from all over.
I was like, well, if someone thinks the SEC wants us to win this year after what’s been going on, they must have just been on Mars the last four months
I’m really proud of our defense for shutting them out. Going 0-for-5 on fourth down was obviously really critical and challenged our guys after last week
He’s a problem in both areas when he is healthy and able to run the ball. We just played him where we were at. He makes really good plays, especially late in the game when he starts running around and obviously he’s much better in year two
We have a toss to the running back that’s going to walk into the endzone and tight end doesn’t block the defensive end, we still made five yards but, it was going to walk in the end zone
Very explosive, fast, you know you watch them. You know they missed a few of them last week, you know they’re really hard to deal with out of breaks, and they do a great job kind of taking off from where they got people open a year ago and were a problem for people as you guys saw, so we’re going to have our hands full
Well, this is a big test; we’ve struggled with him before. I think we led the country in rush defense, but that hasn’t been against a lot of quarterback-schemed runs.
They went through a lot, and some players have played there. One feeling about that happening and losing the game. On the other hand was right there to be won.
All week, my biggest fear every minute was, you know, when the games at the end and Trinidad has the ball in his hand and the guy made a lot of plays during the game
Six years here and a lot of things and a lot of life-changing experiences and a lot of really good people that helped me through some really hard times
Same thing [Georgia head coach Kirby Smart] said in the games last year: you can have these calls and you can do great things and then, you know, he calls them ‘Houdini plays’
You know, we got to execute better. Sam’s got to do a better job, take care of it all. You know, we made a lot of yards, and we were smooth through that at times, but obviously, the red zone work is where you got to finish drives.
Maybe it was perfect for us, you know, that we needed something like that, because in the game, we played well on offense and he was 70 to 7 or something. Maybe it’s what we needed.
Maybe it was perfect for us; maybe we needed something like that because if we play good on offense and the game is 70-7 or something, we don’t have attention
It’s not [usually] a high rank recruit, but some guy that’s just big, strong, fast and you’re like, ‘Man, that’s a backup at LSU?’ And every time you looked it up, you’re like yeah, some three-star player from Louisiana
I can’t predict on Junior and Dae’Quan being this early in the week what that would look like, obviously there’s still new information to come with Thursday and what the SEC guides us to do
Again even if it’s a couple players that don’t even start, if it makes your team better and it’s legal to do and your players want it, I’ll take the hit publicly for it
When you come to watch, that’s an exciting team to watch, that plays really good football and they really master situations, they’re really well coached, they have a style about how they play, which I think we’ve done at previous places
Knox pushing me to do that, challenging me, allowed me to help other players, friends, coaches to say, 'Man, you should try this sometime, because once you remove something from your life, you start to realize how many other people are addicted to it or need it,'
’Hey, coach, we really like you. But my grandparents aren’t letting me move to Oxford, Mississippi.’ That doesn’t come up when you say Baton Rouge, Louisiana
I was asked questions about the differences in recruiting, and I said a narrative that we battled there from some out-of-state Black parents and grandparents was not wanting their kid to move to Mississippi. That’s a narrative that coaches have been fighting forever. It wasn’t calculated by bringing it up.
Don’t mistake because you see me doing things around the community, or a parade, or Mardi Gras, or a concert that there isn’t relentless pursuit of greatness here and effort in the way that we work and the amount of time spent in this office
It’s a sport guys. Stop attacking each other personally and each others families. Move on and both sides just enjoy what they have. Make a grateful list of what you have this morning and focus on that and not what you don’t have
Hired into programs rated 63 to 64 (Blue Blood tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 0 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 5 lower. Median stay: 4 seasons.
Every coach hired into a Blue Blood job since 1990 (34): typically -2.6 after year 1, -5.0 after year 2.
Builder meaningfully raised a program that wasn't one · Inheritor inherited a power and neither built it higher nor let it collapse · Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
64.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.8
position-weighted
Net
+7.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Sam Leavitt (QB) from Arizona State
Biggest loss: Michael Van Buren Jr. (QB) to South Florida
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Lane Kiffin moved Ole Miss from National Program I to Power Program II in 6 seasons.
+9.4 pts over 6 seasons · top 18% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
3rd-best Ole Miss tenure of 17 by the numbers.
Followed Matt Luke (2017–2019) · succeeded by Pete Golding (2025–now).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
swipe to see every season
Season
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Trend
Record & result
Record
5-5
10-3
8-5
11-2
10-3
11-1
Postseason
W bowl
L bowl
L bowl
W bowl
W bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
Jeff Lebby
Jeff Lebby
Charlie Weis Jr. / John David Baker
Charlie Weis Jr. / John David Baker
Charlie Weis Jr. / Joe Cox
Charlie Weis Jr. / Joe Cox
DC
D. J. Durkin / Chris Partridge
D. J. Durkin / Chris Partridge
Maurice Crum Jr. / Chris Partridge
Pete Golding
Bryan Brown / Pete Golding
Bryan Brown / Pete Golding
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
92
54
81
90
96
97
Defense
6
70
44
41
96
65
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
43.9
44.0
39.0
36.5
50.0
45.1
Red-zone pass%
34.7
37.7
32.8
35.0
32.1
28.3
4th-down go%opp. territory
71.8
54.8
50.0
47.8
40.9
41.9
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+24.6 pts
#23 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
-5.8 pts
#132 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 232 lbs
across 81 of 98 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.8 lbs
#55 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: TX (14), FL (11), GA (10), MS (8), LA (7)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
66.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
62.8
position-weighted
Net
+3.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jaxson Dart (QB) from USC
Biggest loss: Grant Tisdale (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Jeff Lebby → Charlie Weis Jr. (co) / John David Baker (co) · 2022The system held
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 44.0% → 37.7% (-6.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 3% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: D. J. Durkin (co) / Chris Partridge (co) → Maurice Crum Jr. (co) / Chris Partridge (co) · 2022
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Maurice Crum Jr. (co) / Chris Partridge (co) → Pete Golding · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Pete Golding → Bryan Brown (co) / Pete Golding · 2024
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Interior line via the portal
70%
#24 of 224 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
81%
#180 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2020: Beat Indiana 26-20 Outback Bowl2021: Lost to Baylor 7-21 Allstate Sugar Bowl2022: Lost to Texas Tech 25-42 TaxAct Texas Bowl2023: Beat Penn State 38-25 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2024: Beat Duke 52-20 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
25 NFL Draft picks: Elijah Moore (2021), Royce Newman (2021), Sam Williams (2022), Matt Corral (2022), Snoop Conner (2022), Chance Campbell (2022), Mark Robinson (2022), Deane Leonard (2022) + 17 more
Lane Kiffin raised Florida Atlantic from Regional Program IV to Regional Program I.
+13.4 pts over 3 seasons · top 3% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
1st-best Florida Atlantic tenure of 9 by the numbers.
Followed Charlie Partridge (2014–2016) · succeeded by Willie Taggart (2020–2022).
System Shift, on departure
System Shift, on arrival
Season
2017
2018
2019
Trend
Record & result
Record
11-3
5-7
10-3
Postseason
W bowl
—
—
Coordinators
OC
Kendal Briles
Charlie Weis Jr.
Charlie Weis Jr.
DC
Chris Kiffin
Tony Pecoraro
Glenn Spencer
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
99
64
81
Defense
63
65
81
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
36.8
36.4
48.9
Red-zone pass%
29.8
27.8
41.4
4th-down go%opp. territory
51.1
52.5
33.3
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+33.0 pts
#10 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+21.1 pts
#30 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Kendal Briles → Charlie Weis Jr. · 2018
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 36.8% → 36.4% (-0.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 49% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Chris Kiffin → Tony Pecoraro · 2018
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Tony Pecoraro → Glenn Spencer · 2019
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Lane Kiffin inherited USC at Blue Blood and kept it there.
−13.2 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 5% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
4th-best USC tenure of 17 by the numbers.
Followed Pete Carroll (2001–2009) · succeeded by Ed Orgeron (2013).
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2010
2011
2012
2013
Trend
Record & result
Record
8-5
10-2
7-6
3-2
Postseason
—
—
L bowl
W bowl
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
59
87
19
83
Defense
18
30
54
97
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
50.7
55.6
53.5
36.4
Red-zone pass%
50.8
50.4
48.4
34.6
4th-down go%opp. territory
48.8
27.0
45.5
19.6
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2012: Lost to Georgia Tech 7-21 Hyundai Sun Bowl
19 NFL Draft picks: Tyron Smith (2011), Jurrell Casey (2011), Shareece Wright (2011), Jordan Cameron (2011), Ronald Johnson (2011), Allen Bradford (2011), Stanley Havili (2011), David Ausberry (2011) + 11 more
Lane Kiffin inherited Tennessee at Power Program I and saw it slip to Power Program II.
Followed Phillip Fulmer (1992–2008) · succeeded by Derek Dooley (2010–2012).
System Shift, on departure
System Shift, on arrival
Postseason detail2009: Lost to Virginia Tech 14-37 Bowl
6 NFL Draft picks: Eric Berry (2010), Dan Williams (2010), Montario Hardesty (2010), Jacques McClendon (2010), Chris Scott (2010), Jonathan Crompton (2010)
7-6
All-time wins
Wins at programs this site tracks, 1936–present — one consistent count for every coach, not each program’s own historically reported total.
2nd all-time at Florida Atlantic
Was he good?
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
The data leans positive, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
Raised the program
FA+13.4 pts at Florida Atlantic · #146 of 1290 · top quarter