This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-2, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerOklahomaUSCTexasTexasNotre DameNotre DameDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderOklahoma when he took over: 71.9 (Power Program I), its final 2016 readingtook overOklahoma, 2017: 12-2, Power Program IOklahoma, 2017: 12-2, Power Program I201712-2Oklahoma, 2018: 12-2, Power Program I201812-2Oklahoma, 2019: 12-2, Power Program I201912-2Oklahoma, 2020: 9-2, Power Program I20209-2Oklahoma, 2021: 10-2, Power Program IOklahoma, 2021: 10-2, Power Program I202110-2+5.5USC when he took over: 58.7 (Power Program I), its final 2021 readingtook overUSC, 2022: 11-3, Power Program IUSC, 2022: 11-3, Power Program I202211-3USC, 2023: 8-5, Power Program I20238-5USC, 2024: 7-6, Power Program I20247-6USC, 2025: 9-4, Power Program I20259-4USC, 2026: 7-2, Power Program IUSC, 2026: 7-2, Power Program I20267-2-2.7best: 2019bracket: consecutive-win streak · gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes17-game win streak (2020-21)

Bowls and playoffs: 3-5

Oklahoma2017 semiRose BowlL 48-542018 semiOrange BowlL 34-452019 semiPeach BowlL 28-632020Cotton Bowl ClassicW 55-20USC2022Cotton Bowl ClassicL 45-462023Holiday BowlW 42-282024Las Vegas BowlW 35-312025Alamo BowlL 27-30

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 30-18 vs. Ohio State Sat Oct 31
  • This season7-2
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextat Indiana Sat Nov 14 (no game this week)
  • Stature13th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll unranked → #18 into the poll
  • Playoff odds 18% → 34% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Indiana

No game this week · Sat Nov 14, time to be announced · Indiana is 8-1 · First meeting between Riley and Curt Cignetti as head coaches · USC’s chance to win: 24% (the site’s model)

His week

It’s a non-issue”

USC’s Lincoln Riley on heated exchange with Ohio State AD

The New York Times headline · Tue Nov 3

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 16th of 138 per play. Defense: 88th.

Offense, per play16thOffense, staying on schedule3rdDefense, per play88thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 40126thWorstBest
Offense, per play16th of 138Offense, staying on schedule3rd of 138Defense, per play88th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 40126th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is USC. The other two rows are where USC stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Sat Nov 14at Indiana (8-1)24%
  2. Sat Nov 21vs. Maryland (2-6)91%
  3. Sat Nov 28at UCLA (8-0)33%

Percent: USC’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today.

How the season got here

USC has held at 13th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 30-18 vs. Ohio State97 headlines · 1st of 138Lincoln Riley addresses USC future with prepared statement after upsetting Ohio State The New York Times
  2. Oct 19–25L 7-24 at Wisconsin26 headlines · 17th of 138Wisconsin shuts down USC, exposing Lincoln Riley’s Trojans as CFP pretenders The New York Times
  3. Oct 12–18No game18 headlines · 23rd of 138Does Lincoln Riley have USC back on track? What spoiling Penn State’s White Out means The New York Times
  4. Oct 5–11W 31-23 at Penn State22 headlines · 18th of 138Does Lincoln Riley have USC back on track? What spoiling Penn State’s White Out means The New York Times
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 25-21 vs. Washington83 headlines · 1st of 138USC football wins, but shaky performance doesn't quiet noise around Lincoln Riley USA Today
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 27-41 vs. Oregon41 headlines · 9th of 138Oregon outlasts USC. Did the Ducks save their season? Will Lincoln Riley ever get over the hump? The New York Times

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from USC’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 95th percentile offense, above the median defense at 52nd.

USC, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A+
of which —95th
efficiency — 95th percentile success rate, 2022–25
A+91st
Standard-downs success
A+93rd
Passing-downs success
A85th
Trench push (line yards)
B69th
Red-zone scoring rate
A84th
Power-success (short yardage)
B-58th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B-
of which —52nd
52nd percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
B+72nd
Front-7 havoc
B67th
Secondary havoc
D26th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B-56th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool93rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All four of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202220232024202520262022, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (9 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (10 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (11 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (12 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 2%, 92nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 111th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (4 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (5 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (6 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (7 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    7-2, outscoring opponents by 74 · AP-ranked
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 5 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    $52.5M buyout (imputed from pay) · 4.5× his pay, a multiple among the largest in FBS — costly to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 7-2 after 9 games
1% pushed out over results · of 321 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 9 games
13% pushed out over results · of 695 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$52,466,918 imputed from total pay — not a reported figure · 4.5× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 3%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

3%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled65th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $11.5 million in 2025, the 98th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 15% on the season before
  • ▼ Lower
    A Power Four program · 91st percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.