P.J. Fleck

Head coach · Minnesota
10th season · since 2017 · Western Michigan before

At Minnesota71-47since 2017 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool8% · 43rd of 132 jobsLast gameL 16-23at Indiana · Oct 31Nextvs UCLASat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · FOX
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianWestern MichiganMinnesotaCentral MichiganCentral MichiganIowaIowaPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelWestern Michigan when he took over: 19.4 (Regional Program II), its final 2012 readingtook overWestern Michigan, 2013: 1-11, Regional Program IIIWestern Michigan, 2013: 1-11, Regional Program III20131-11Western Michigan, 2014: 8-5, Regional Program III20148-5Western Michigan, 2015: 8-5, Regional Program I20158-5Western Michigan, 2016: 13-1, National Program IIIWestern Michigan, 2016: 13-1, National Program III201613-1+9.3Minnesota when he took over: 28.4 (National Program III), its final 2016 readingtook overMinnesota, 2017: 5-7, National Program IIIMinnesota, 2017: 5-7, National Program III20175-7Minnesota, 2018: 7-6, National Program III20187-6Minnesota, 2019: 11-2, National Program II201911-2Minnesota, 2020: 3-4, National Program II20203-4Minnesota, 2021: 9-4, National Program II20219-4Minnesota, 2022: 9-4, National Program I20229-4Minnesota, 2023: 6-7, National Program II20236-7Minnesota, 2024: 8-5, National Program I20248-5Minnesota, 2025: 8-5, National Program I20258-5Minnesota, 2026: 5-3, National Program IMinnesota, 2026: 5-3, National Program I20265-3+9.9best: 2024bracket: consecutive-win streak · gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes15-game win streak (2015-16)

Bowls and playoffs: 8-2

Western Michigan’14L’15W’16LMinnesota’18W’19W’21W’22W’23W’24W’25W

Show all 10 games
Western Michigan2014Famous Idaho Potato BowlL 24-382015Bahamas BowlW 45-312016Cotton Bowl ClassicL 16-24Minnesota2018Quick Lane BowlW 34-102019Outback BowlW 31-242021Guaranteed Rate BowlW 18-62022Pinstripe BowlW 28-202023Quick Lane BowlW 30-242024Duke's Mayo BowlW 24-102025Rate BowlW 20-17

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 16-23 at Indiana Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3
  • Hot seat8% 43rd of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. UCLA Sat Nov 7
  • Stature39th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.9% → 0.4% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 5%. Lose and he’s at 9%.

vs. UCLA, Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET FOX · No. 5 UCLA is 8-0 · First meeting between Fleck and Bob Chesney as head coaches · Minnesota’s chance to win: 27% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Minnesota wins: 5%, 59th of 132Now: 8%If Minnesota loses: 9%, 40th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Minnesota wins: 5%, 59th of 132
  • Now: 8%
  • If Minnesota loses: 9%, 40th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

8% chance he’s out after the season · 43rd of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow5% had they won5% had they wonLoss 9%Win 5%5%5%13%11%8%7%14%9%8%Pre1W vs. Eastern IllinoisW2L vs. Mississippi StateL3W vs. AkronW4W at WashingtonW5W vs. MichiganW6L at PurdueL7W vs. IowaW8L at IndianaL9Chance to win vs. UCLA27%10Chance to win at Penn State40%11Chance to win vs. Northwestern26%12Chance to win at Wisconsin38%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow5% had they wonLoss 9%Win 5%5%8%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 5-713%
  2. 6-67%
  3. 7-54%
  4. 8-42%
  5. 9-31%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All nine of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool201720192021202320262017, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 97th-hottest of 105 FBS jobs2017, week 4 (3 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2017, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2018, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 110 FBS jobs2018, week 4 (4 games in): 6%, 63rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 5 (4 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 6 (5 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 7 (6 games in): 8%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 10 (9 games in): 8%, 49th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 11 (10 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 12 (11 games in): 6%, 51st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 13 (12 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 49th-hottest of 106 FBS jobs2019, week 4 (3 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2019, week 5 (4 games in): 4%, 72nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 104th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2020, week 10 (3 games in): 9%, 38th-hottest of 96 FBS jobs2020, week 11 (4 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 100 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (5 games in): 9.5%, 46th-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (5 games in): 9.5%, 51st-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (5 games in): 9.5%, 51st-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (6 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (7 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 96th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 87th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 104th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 101st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 111th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 96th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 88th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 81st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 4%, 76th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 78th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 8%, 54th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 8%, 57th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 8%, 54th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 8%, 42nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 8%, 42nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 8%, 42nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 14%, 27th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 14%, 33rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 15%, 34th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 11%, 40th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (7 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 57th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): 6%, 53rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 55th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 55th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 4%, 55th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 43rd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 9%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 9%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 9.9%, 40th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 6%, 51st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 7%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 5%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 42nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 51st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 14%, 32nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 8%, 43rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowEvery season ended Cool, 2017–2025

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 10 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters. History alone points the other way: of 213 past coaches in year 10 or later at this point in a season, 6% were pushed out over results, against 13% of 1,454 in years 3–9.

  • ▼ Cooler
    5-3, outscoring opponents by 38
  • ▼ Cooler
    $26.6M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 3.8× his pay, a multiple above average in FBS — costly to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in year 10 or later, after 8 games
6% pushed out over results · of 213 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$26,600,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.8× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 12%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Sports are not kind”

Gophers’ P.J. Fleck reflects on gut-wrenching Indiana loss

FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul headline · Mon Nov 2

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Fans are frustrated with Minnesota

Yes Josh I am THAT unlucky, I am the guy that 'for the first time in history" happens every weekend, I bet Minnesota and I was supposed to win, but lost

Minnesota DBs sold tf outta that game

This is so loser Minnesota sports mindset all you fucking losers are sucked into We deserve and should expect to be able to win these games. We're not a bad sports state. This is not a bad team. So shut your mouth bitch lol

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 126th of 138 per play. Defense: 21st.

Offense, per play126thRunning offense135thDefense, per play21stDefense, opponents' starting field position32ndWorstBest
Offense, per play126th of 138Running offense135th of 138Defense, per play21st of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position32nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Minnesota. The other two rows are where Minnesota stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. UCLA (8-0)FOX27%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Penn State (4-4)40%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Northwestern (6-2)26%
  4. Fri Nov 27at Wisconsin (5-3)NBC38%

Percent: Minnesota’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Minnesota stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

34th40th46thPreseason40thEastern Illinois W 59-7Eastern Illinois W 59-7W 59-7Eastern Illin…39thMississippi State L 13-38Mississippi State L 13-38L 13-38Mississippi S…39thAkron W 41-7Akron W 41-7W 41-7Akron39thWashington W 27-24Washington W 27-24W 27-24Washington39thMichigan W 20-14Michigan W 20-14W 20-14Michigan39thPurdue L 13-41Purdue L 13-41L 13-41Purdue42ndIowa W 13-10Iowa W 13-10W 13-10Iowa42ndIndiana L 16-23Indiana L 16-23L 16-23Indiana40th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 16-23 at Indiana6 headlines · 62nd of 138
  2. Oct 19–25W 13-10 vs. Iowa7 headlines · 53rd of 138Minnesota's P.J. Fleck HYPED after Golden Gophers' UPSET win over No. 15 Iowa FOX Sports
  3. Oct 12–18No game5 headlines · 51st of 138P.J. Fleck's Gophers dominate after bye weeks, but mostly against bad teams Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11L 13-41 at Purdue6 headlines · 53rd of 138Gophers-Purdue reaction: P.J. Fleck’s in-game decisions deserve scrutiny after ugly loss Bring Me The News
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 20-14 vs. Michigan16 headlines · 29th of 138P.J. Fleck crowd surfs on 'Big Noon Kickoff' before Minnesota-Michigan USA Today
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 27-24 at Washington3 headlines · 68th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Minnesota’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Defense carries it: 77th percentile defense, above the median offense at 67th.

Minnesota, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B
of which —67th
efficiency — 67th percentile success rate, 2017–25
B64th
Standard-downs success
B62nd
Passing-downs success
B62nd
Trench push (line yards)
B61st
Red-zone scoring rate
B+71st
Power-success (short yardage)
B68th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B+
of which —77th
77th percentile SP+ defense, 2017–25
B-54th
Front-7 havoc
B69th
Secondary havoc
C+49th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C+47th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

5%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled43rd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 45 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    His 10th season at Minnesota
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $7 million in 2025, the 75th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 4% on the season before
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.