cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Austin Brawley /New Mexico

Austin Brawley

S · New Mexico · Sr · #21

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

25 TACKLES · 1 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to New Mexico for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to New Mexico for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Safety · New Mexico

Returning around him

  • 12% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
  • 1 New Mexico player drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +1 net (15 in / 14 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

New Mexico · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #131 · 2026 recruiting class #138

S · NEW MEXICO · MOUNTAIN WEST

Austin Brawley

  • 4
  • #21
  • 5-10 | 180 lb
  • Massillon, OH

CFB Zeitgeist Score

59

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 90th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#10231

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R03 · Backup

Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
2 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionS
Class4
Jersey21
Measurements5-10 | 180 lb
HometownMassillon, OH
Primary teamNew Mexico

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination New Mexico 2025
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 14, 2025
Season Move Context
2025 Ohio -> New Mexico Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#10231Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#10479Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Austin Brawley

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Austin Brawley

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 5g
25Tackles
2.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
5Tackles
0.5Tackles for loss
0.2Sacks
Projected (13g)
65Tackles
6.5Tackles for loss
2.6Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 25): needs 6.9/game over remaining 8.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 25): needs 9.4/game over remaining 8.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 1): needs 0.6/game over remaining 8.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 1): needs 1.1/game over remaining 8.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Austin Brawley is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on New Mexico's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, and 3 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #10231 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 25 12 solo | #1667/4942 (66th pct)
TFL 2.5 Backfield disruption | #1236/4972 (75th pct)
Sacks 1.0 Pass-rush finish | #872/4972 (82nd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Coverage splash against FBS defenders.

Coverage splash

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
25 66th
SOLO
12 62nd
TFL
2.5 75th
SACK
1.0 82nd

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
3 76th
INT
3 94th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 5 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 17-34@ Michigan430.00.01
Wk 12W 20-17vs Colorado State321.50.020
Wk 13W 20-3@ Air Force410.00.01
Wk 14W 23-17vs San Diego State931.01.010Season-high 9 tackles
BowlL 17-20@ Minnesota530.00.01
Total25122.51.033
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Ohio10-4HC: Tim Albin · Balanced
2023Ohio10-3HC: Tim Albin · Run-leaning
2024Ohio11-3HC: Tim Albin · Run-heavy
2025New Mexico9-4HC: Jason Eck · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025New Mexico25122.51.033--
2024Ohio38231.50.021--
2023Ohio41150.50.022--
2022Ohio2092.01.0------
Career4 loaded seasons124596.52.076--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT 3 0 pick-six TD | #56/869 (94th pct)
Pass breakups 3 Coverage disruption | #521/2184 (76th pct)
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 25 #1667/4942 66th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 2.5 #1236/4972 75th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 1.0 #872/4972 82nd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Interceptions 3 #56/869 94th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 3 #521/2184 76th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense INT return yards 64 #74/578 87th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense INT return avg 21.3 #193/578 67th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 12 #1735/4584 62nd pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 5 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home2g6.01.20.50.0
Road3g4.30.00.01.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins3g5.30.80.30.3
Losses2g4.50.00.01.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-72g4.50.00.01.0
Weeks 8+3g5.30.80.30.3

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the S cohort

59Solid starter
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: interceptions (89th). Concern: qb hurries (22nd).

Interceptions#56 / 817 · 90th pct
3inte
Passes defended#517 / 2975 · 78th pct
3defe
Sacks#847 / 2975 · 63rd pct
1.0defe
Tackles for loss#1222 / 2975 · 56th pct
2.5defe
Tackles#1667 / 2975 · 43rd pct
25defe
Solo tackles#1735 / 2975 · 40th pct
12defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · S · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Austin BrawleyNew MexicoDalton JohnsonArizona· 69% simMichael MontgomerySouthern Miss· 69% simDevin LafayetteTroy· 68% sim
Interceptions
90
Brawley
95
Johnson
75
Montgomery
75
Lafayette
Passes defended
78
Brawley
96
Johnson
67
Montgomery
91
Lafayette
Sacks
63
Brawley
63
Johnson
89
Montgomery
63
Lafayette
Tackles for loss
56
Brawley
47
Johnson
85
Montgomery
56
Lafayette
Tackles
43
Brawley
98
Johnson
99
Montgomery
99
Lafayette
Solo tackles
40
Brawley
97
Johnson
82
Montgomery
98
Lafayette
QB hurries
22
Brawley
22
Johnson
22
Montgomery
22
Lafayette

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Centerfielder

Single-high range who erases the deep middle of the field.

S

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Zahodri Jackson’s 2021 season.

Zahodri Jackson

88%match

Utah State · 2021

#2

Jabbar Muhammad

Oklahoma State · 2021

87%
#3

Dylan Flowers

Western Kentucky · 2025

84%
#4

Amari Butler

Louisiana Tech · 2025

81%
#5

Khian'Dre Harris

Old Dominion · 2023

81%

Matches Zahodri on

PD rate
Tackle volume
Height

Differs from Zahodri on

Class year (higher)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Caine Savage's senior season at Nevada (2023).

Caine Savage

87%match

Nevada · 2023

#2

Jaden Dedman

Nevada · 2023

83%
#3

Marquis Cooper

Buffalo · 2025

83%
#4

Chris Mills

Texas State · 2023

82%
#5

Demarko Williams

Western Kentucky · 2025

80%

Matches Caine on

Class year
Tackle volume
PD rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jason Eck

Pass share

43.3%

350 pass / 459 run

Plays / game

62.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

11.3%

293 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

3 coaches
2022
Danny Gonzales
New Mexico
2023
Danny Gonzales
New Mexico
2024
Bronco Mendenhall
New Mexico
era →
2025
Jason Eck
New Mexico
era →

Played under 3 different head coaches: Danny Gonzales, Bronco Mendenhall, and Jason Eck. Multi-era developmental context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMassillon, OH
Height5'10"
Weight180 lb
Class4
PositionS
Jersey21

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Ohio S4 #10231 #10479 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Mid-American
2023 Ohio S4 #7346 #7589 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Mid-American
2022 Ohio S4 #13163 #12921 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Mid-American

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 New Mexico Mountain West S 4 No. 21 | 5-10 | 180 lb | Massillon, OH
2024 Ohio Mid-American S 4 No. 21 | 5-10 | 180 lb | Massillon, OH
2023 Ohio Mid-American S 4 No. 21 | 5-10 | 180 lb | Massillon, OH
2022 Ohio Mid-American S 4 No. 21 | 5-10 | 180 lb | Massillon, OH