Blake Shapen

Senior quarterback for Mississippi State. 2025: 2,436 passing yards, 15 TD, 8 INT.

QB · Mississippi State · Sr. · #2

6′1″ · 210 lb · Shreveport, LA

CFB Index 51 · #61 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceReturning to Mississippi State for 2026

The numbers

2,436

passing yards · 2025

15 TD · 8 INT · 8 per attempt

The play that turned itSwung Mississippi State from 14% to 92% to win.Arizona State at Mississippi State · 24-20

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 quarterback for Mississippi State. 2025: 2,436 passing yards, 15 TD, 8 INT.

Signed as a 3-star recruit to Evangel Christian Academy in 2020.
Transferred from Baylor to Mississippi State in 2024.

The full story, with sources

How he plays

Pushes it downfield on every look.

Interception rate: 69th percentile.

The full scouting read

Blake Shapen

QB · Mississippi State · Sr · #2

Pushes it downfield on every look. Across five seasons and two programs, two head coaches: Dave Aranda and Jeff Lebby. The receipt: 381 pass yds, 4 pass TD against Texas — Week 9, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2021Baylor12-2HC: Dave Aranda · Run-heavy

2022Baylor6-7HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning

2023Baylor3-9HC: Dave Aranda · Balanced

2024Mississippi State2-10HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning

2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

51Rotational starter #61 of 146?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: sack rate (12th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Interception rate#58 / 183 · 69th pct

1.7%

Explosive rate#65 / 183 · 65th pct

9.9%

EPA / dropback#77 / 183 · 58th pct

0.20

Success rate#111 / 183 · 39th pct

39.0%

Sack rate#162 / 183 · 12th pct

9.0%

Box-score rates (8)

Yards / att#38 / 183 · 78th pct

8.0

Pass yards#68 / 183 · 63rd pct

2436

Completion %#68 / 183 · 63rd pct

64.1%

Pass TDs#71 / 183 · 60th pct

Rush TDs#86 / 183 · 49th pct

Interceptions#115 / 183 · 32nd pct

Rush yards#132 / 183 · 28th pct

Fumbles lost#132 / 174 · 18th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

51st → 58th percentile

Success rate

65th → 39th percentile

Explosive rate

58th → 65th percentile

Sack rate

25th → 12th percentile

Interception rate

93rd → 69th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

186/294 (63.3%) · 15 TD · 8 INT

294 of 304 attempts matched to play-by-play

115 of 294 attempts charted for true throw depth

Adjusted ANY/A

6.5283 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

8.7%182 of 206 QBs

Sacked on 8.7% of dropbacks (182 of 206) — and still 83 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

15% of attempts (17)

82%comp1 INT

Air -2.9 · YAC 8.3 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

57% of attempts (65)

58%comp

Air 4.0 · YAC 5.4 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

19% of attempts (22)

55%comp2 INT

Air 14.0 · YAC 3.4 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

10% of attempts (11)

36%comp

Air 33.9 · YAC 6.0 avg

Overall 63.3% completion on 294 attempts · 36% completion on 11 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 58 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-45 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 9/116 (7.8%) · league sack rate 4.2% · ~our read

Down 2

-3 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 7/101 (6.9%) · league sack rate 4.5% · ~our read

Down 3+

+58 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 12/93 (12.9%) · league sack rate 7.8% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home6g	210	1.8	8.3	0.3
Road5g	235	0.8	7.7	1.2

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	201	1.5	8.3	0.7
Weeks 8+5g	246	1.2	7.7	0.8

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Jeff Lebby

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

51 · #61 of 146 QBs

Three-star recruit. Now #61 at the position.

2026 outlook

Outside shot for All-SEC

Based on 2025: #11 of 16 SEC QBs

How the All-SEC estimate is computed

22% estimated, 95% confidence interval 19–25%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Mississippi State	195	304	64.1%	2,436	8.0	15	8	142.5	58	--	--
2024	Mississippi State	74	108	68.5%	974	9.0	8	1	166.9	58	--	--
2023	Baylor	184	298	61.7%	2,188	7.3	13	3	135.8	39	--	--
2022	Baylor	233	368	63.3%	2,790	7.6	18	10	137.7	47	--	--
2021	Baylor	62	86	72.1%	596	6.9	5	0	149.5	47	--	--
Career		748	1,164	64.3%	8,984	7.7	59	22	142.0	49	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Mississippi State	112	26	0.2	3	--
2024	Mississippi State	34	36	1.1	2	--
2023	Baylor	67	29	0.4	4	--
2022	Baylor	76	96	1.3	2	--
2021	Baylor	21	59	2.8	0	--
Career		310	246	0.8	11	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 10 · 2025

W 38–35

at Arkansas

242 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT · QBR 72.2 · 16 rush yds (10 car)

Edged out Arkansas on the road in a shootout.

With A. Evans III — 16 rush yds (1 car) · K. Taylor — 40 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 95.9 · 55 rush yds (6 car) · 1 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 5 · Tennessee · 3&5 · Q1 · EPA -6.89Blake Shapen pass intercepted Colton Hood return for 23 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Week 3 · Alcorn State · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +6.78Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 75 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
Week 2 · Arizona State · 3&9 · Q4 · EPA +6.45Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
Week 1 · Southern Miss · 3&8 · Q1 · EPA +6.16Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 55 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
Week 9 · Texas · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +4.95Davon Booth 62 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
Week 2 · Arizona State · 2&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.66Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 47 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
Week 4 · Northern Illinois · 3&9 · Q4 · EPA +4.66Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 57 yds to the NIU 6 for a 1ST down
Week 10 · Arkansas · 4&7 · Q4 · EPA +4.16(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete deep right to #0 B.Thompson caught at ARK34, for 32 yards to the ARK34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
Week 3 · Alcorn State · 3&16 · Q2 · EPA +4.09Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 22 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
Week 12 · Missouri · 2&9 · Q1 · EPA +4.05(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete deep middle to #0 B.Thompson caught at Mizzou35, for 54 yards to the Mizzou20 (#0 S.Hall), 1ST DOWN

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 34-17@ Southern Miss	26/34	270	1	1	7.9	57.6
Wk 2	W 24-20vs Arizona State	19/33	279	3	0	8.5	42.0	3 TD passes
Wk 3	W 63-0vs Alcorn State	10/14	173	2	1	12.4	79.6
Wk 4	W 38-10vs Northern Illinois	12/20	160	1	0	8.0	72.0
Wk 5	L 34-41vs Tennessee	18/29	180	1	1	6.2	22.9
Wk 6	L 9-31@ Texas A&M	15/20	142	1	1	7.1	51.2
Wk 8	L 21-23@ Florida	24/36	324	0	1	9.0	73.8
Wk 9	L 38-45vs Texas	26/42	381	4	0	9.1	67.4	Season-high 381 yds
Wk 10	W 38-35@ Arkansas	16/28	242	2	1	8.6	72.2
Wk 11	L 21-41vs Georgia	10/15	86	0	0	5.7	46.4
Wk 12	L 27-49@ Missouri	19/33	199	0	2	6.0	36.2
Total		195/304	2436	15	8	8.0	56.5

How he plays

Play style

Elite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

69.2%Completion %

31.9%Conversion/dropback

44.4%Land short of sticks

0INTs

69.2% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 31.9% conversion-per-dropback — 44.4% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

8/42Inside-5 share

8 of the team's 42 inside-the-5 carries (19.0%).

2026 Outlook

Mississippi State

Preseason read · May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Mississippi State

Returning around him

34% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
2 Mississippi State players drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: -12 net (28 in / 40 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Mississippi State · Last season: 5-8 · Talent rank #20 · 2026 recruiting class #23

DNA match

Player DNA

Vertical Passer

Elite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Blake Shapen’s 2022 season.

Blake Shapen

76%match

Baylor · 2022

Rocco Becht

Iowa State · 2025

76%

Tanner Morgan

Minnesota · 2021

71%

Skylar John Thompson

Kansas State · 2021

68%

Matches Blake on

Rush yards / carry

Yards / attempt

Differs from Blake on

Rush usage (higher)

Class year (higher)

EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)

Through 5 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Brady Cook’s path through Missouri.

Brady Cook

87%match

Missouri · 2024

Alessio Milivojevic

Michigan State · 2025

85%

Mason Heintschel

Pittsburgh · 2025

85%

Ian Book

Notre Dame · 2020

All-ACCNFL Rd 4

86%

Cameron Ward

Miami · 2024

84%

Matches Brady on

Completion %

Yards per attempt

Height

As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Brett Gabbert's graduate season at Miami (OH) (2024).

Brett Gabbert

58%match

Miami (OH) · 2024

All-MAC

Hank Bachmeier

Wake Forest · 2024

57%

Jacolby Criswell

North Carolina · 2024

54%

Payton Thorne

Auburn · 2024

50%

Grayson James

Boston College · 2025

All-Conference USA

50%

Matches Brett on

TD rate

Yards / attempt

Height

Differs from Brett on

Rush usage (higher)

Completion % (higher)

Player DNA

Players who play like Blake Shapen

Rocco Becht

Iowa State · 2025

82%

Jack Layne

New Mexico · 2025

79%

Blake Shapen

Mississippi State · 2025

76%

Payton Thorne

Michigan State · 2022

76%

JC French

Georgia Southern · 2025

76%

Heisman trajectory

Heisman Trajectory · 2025

Peak #84

Final rank

#162

Avg #131.0

Finalist prob 0%

Peaked at #84 this season.

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Blake Shapen

Fans warmer than rivals

2020

20244 games

2025 snapshot

Passing profile

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Impact starter

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Vertical Passer

Players who play like Blake Shapen

Heisman trajectory

Peak #84