Diego Pavia

Senior quarterback for Vanderbilt. 2025: 3,539 passing yards, 29 TD, 8 INT.

QB · Vanderbilt · Sr. · #2

6′0″ · 207 lb · Albuquerque, NM

CFB Index 95 · #1 of 146 QBsHigh confidencePOTY finalist (model)Returning to Vanderbilt for 2026

How he plays

Extends plays with his feet until something opens up.

Success rate: 99th percentile.

The full scouting read

The numbers

3,539

passing yards · 2025

29 TD · 8 INT · 9.4 per attempt

Backed by 484 yds · 5 TD -- top 1% passing yards game.

The play that turned itSwung Vanderbilt from 32% to 67% to win.Auburn at Vanderbilt · 45-38

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 quarterback for Vanderbilt. 2025: 3,539 passing yards, 29 TD, 8 INT.

Signed as a 2-star recruit to New Mexico State in 2022.
Transferred from New Mexico State to Vanderbilt in 2024.
Named All-America (CBS) in 2025.

The full story, with sources

Diego Pavia

QB · Vanderbilt · Sr · #2

Extends plays with his feet until something opens up. Two head coaches in four seasons, at two different programs. Three straight seasons of it now: All-America (CBS) again in 2025. The receipt on tape: 484 pass yds, 48 rush yds against Kentucky, Week 13, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
recognition record
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2022New Mexico State7-6HC: Jerry Kill · Run-leaning, slow tempo

2023New Mexico State10-5HC: Jerry Kill · Run-leaning, slow tempo

2024Vanderbilt7-6HC: Clark Lea · Run-heavy, slow tempo

2025Vanderbilt10-3HC: Clark Lea · Balanced, slow tempo

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

95All-America level #1 of 146?

High confidenceAscending13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: success rate (99th percentile). Strength: epa / dropback (96th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#2 / 183 · 99th pct

54.9%

EPA / dropback#7 / 183 · 96th pct

0.41

Explosive rate#26 / 183 · 86th pct

11.5%

Interception rate#55 / 183 · 70th pct

1.7%

Sack rate#112 / 183 · 39th pct

5.5%

Box-score rates (8)

Yards / att#3 / 183 · 98th pct

9.4

Completion %#8 / 183 · 96th pct

70.6%

Pass TDs#9 / 183 · 95th pct

Rush yards#10 / 183 · 95th pct

862

Pass yards#14 / 183 · 93rd pct

3539

Rush TDs#14 / 183 · 91st pct

Fumbles lost#87 / 174 · 38th pct

Interceptions#115 / 183 · 32nd pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

77th → 96th percentile

Success rate

60th → 99th percentile

Explosive rate

42nd → 86th percentile

Sack rate

54th → 39th percentile

Interception rate

90th → 70th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

250/358 (69.8%) · 29 TD · 8 INT

358 of 378 attempts matched to play-by-play

148 of 358 attempts charted for true throw depth

Adjusted ANY/A

9.128 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

5.3%123 of 206 QBs

Sacked on 5.3% of dropbacks (123 of 206) — and still 8 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

15% of attempts (22)

91%comp

Air -3.6 · YAC 9.1 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

53% of attempts (78)

81%comp1 INT

Air 4.5 · YAC 6.8 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

21% of attempts (31)

55%comp

Air 13.2 · YAC 6.1 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

11% of attempts (17)

29%comp2 INT

Air 30.2 · YAC 9.8 avg

Overall 69.8% completion on 358 attempts · 29% completion on 17 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 35 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-31 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 8/172 (4.7%) · league sack rate 4.2% · ~our read

Down 2

+22 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/108 (3.7%) · league sack rate 4.5% · ~our read

Down 3+

+35 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 9/85 (10.6%) · league sack rate 7.8% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home8g	292	2.5	9.7	0.4
Road5g	240	1.8	8.5	1.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	251	2.3	9.0	0.6
Weeks 8+6g	297	2.2	9.5	0.7

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Clark Lea

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

POTY finalist (model)

Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

95 · #1 of 146 QBs

Two-star recruit. Now #1 at the position.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Vanderbilt	267	378	70.6%	3,539	9.4	29	8	170.4	84	--	--
2024	Vanderbilt	177	298	59.4%	2,293	7.7	20	4	143.5	56	--	--
2023	New Mexico State	221	366	60.4%	2,973	8.1	26	9	147.1	59	--	--
2022	New Mexico State	100	189	52.9%	1,442	7.6	13	6	133.3	62	--	--
Career		765	1,231	62.1%	10,247	8.3	88	27	151.3	66	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Vanderbilt	167	862	5.2	10	--
2024	Vanderbilt	193	800	4.1	8	--
2023	New Mexico State	176	923	5.2	7	--
2022	New Mexico State	93	504	5.4	6	--
Career		629	3,089	4.9	31	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 14 · 2025

W 45–24

at Tennessee

268 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT · QBR 92.8 · 165 rush yds (20 car) · 1 TD

Dominant 21-point win on the road against Tennessee.

With T. Richardson — 6 rec · 75 yds · 1 TD · S. Alexander — 115 rush yds (10 car) · 3 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 13 · Kentucky · 2&10 · Q2 · EPA +6.61Tre Richardson 71 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
Week 1 · Iowa · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +6.08Tre Richardson 75 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
Week 10 · Texas · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +5.43(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete deep right to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX30, for 67 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:54, 1ST DOWN #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "" #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "". CALL UPHELD #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
Week 11 · Auburn · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +4.47Tre Richardson 57 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
Week 6 · Alabama · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA -4.42Diego Pavia pass intercepted Keon Sabb return for 12 yds to the ALA 19
Week 13 · Kentucky · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.37Tre Richardson 56 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
Week 3 · South Carolina · 3&21 · Q3 · EPA +4.31Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 24 yds to the SC 27 for a 1ST down South Carolina Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Dylan Stewart) to the SC 13 for a 1ST down
Week 2 · Virginia Tech · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.18Diego Pavia pass complete to Brycen Coleman for 54 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
Week 2 · Virginia Tech · 2&16 · Q3 · EPA +4.11Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 25 yds to the VT 44 for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Ben Bell) to the VT 29 for a 1ST down
Week 5 · Utah State · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +4.10Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 53 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 45-3vs Charleston Southern	20/25	275	3	0	11.0	85.6	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 2	W 44-20@ Virginia Tech	12/18	193	2	1	10.7	88.7
Wk 3	W 31-7@ South Carolina	18/25	177	2	1	7.1	76.9
Wk 4	W 70-21vs Georgia State	18/24	245	1	0	10.2	93.3
Wk 5	W 55-35vs Utah State	26/34	321	5	1	9.4	92.9	5 TD passes
Wk 6	L 14-30@ Alabama	21/35	198	1	1	5.7	53.9
Wk 8	W 31-24vs LSU	14/22	160	1	0	7.3	93.1
Wk 9	W 17-10vs Missouri	10/19	129	0	1	6.8	59.1
Wk 10	L 31-34@ Texas	27/38	365	3	0	9.6	85.0	3 TD passes
Wk 11	W 45-38vs Auburn	25/33	377	3	0	11.4	95.7	3 TD passes
Wk 13	W 45-17vs Kentucky	33/39	484	5	1	12.4	92.3	Season-high 484 yds
Wk 14	W 45-24@ Tennessee	18/28	268	1	2	9.6	92.8
Bowl	L 27-34vs Iowa	25/38	347	2	0	9.1	86.3
Total		267/378	3539	29	8	9.3	84.3

How he plays

Play style

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

56.7%Completion %

34.3%Conversion/dropback

29.4%Land short of sticks

1INTs

56.7% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 34.3% conversion-per-dropback — 29.4% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

7/24Inside-5 share

7 of the team's 24 inside-the-5 carries (29.2%).

2026 Outlook

Vanderbilt

Preseason read · May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Vanderbilt · editorial

Returning around him

35% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
1 Vanderbilt player drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: -2 net (18 in / 20 out)

2026 Award watch

Manning Award
Maxwell Watch
Davey O'Brien
Heisman Watch

Vanderbilt · Last season: 10-3 (AP #13) · Talent rank #42 · 2026 recruiting class #33

DNA match

Player DNA

Scrambler

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Dillon Gabriel’s 2023 season.

Dillon Gabriel

70%match

Oklahoma · 2023

All-Big 12NFL Rd 3 · Pk 30

Jaxson Dart

Ole Miss · 2024

All-SECNFL Rd 1 · Pk 25

53%

Frank Harris

UTSA · 2022

All-Conference USANFL Rd 6

51%

Caleb Williams

USC · 2022

Consensus All-American

51%

Trinidad Chambliss

Ole Miss · 2025

All-SEC

50%

Matches Dillon on

Yards / attempt

Rush yards / carry

Height

Differs from Dillon on

Rush usage (higher)

INT rate (higher)

Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to John Mateer’s path through Oklahoma.

John Mateer

83%match

Oklahoma · 2025

Rocco Becht

Iowa State · 2025

81%

Stetson Bennett

Georgia · 2022

All-SECNFL Rd 4

79%

Jaren Hall

BYU · 2022

NFL Rd 5

78%

Dylan Rizk

UCF · 2024

76%

Matches John on

Yards per attempt

Completion %

Height

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Dillon Gabriel's senior season at Oklahoma (2023).

Dillon Gabriel

56%match

Oklahoma · 2023

All-Big TenNFL Rd 3 · Pk 30

Jaxson Dart

Ole Miss · 2024

All-SECNFL Rd 1 · Pk 25

46%

Cameron Ward

Miami · 2024

43%

Jordan McCloud

Texas State · 2024

All-Sun Belt

34%

Brady Cook

Missouri · 2023

34%

Matches Dillon on

Height

Differs from Dillon on

Rush usage (higher)

Total pass EPA (college ability) (lower)

Completion % (higher)

Player DNA

Players who play like Diego Pavia

Anthony Colandrea

UNLV · 2025

75%

Devon Dampier

Utah · 2025

73%

Diego Pavia

Vanderbilt · 2024

73%

Jalon Daniels

Kansas · 2025

72%

John Rhys Plumlee

UCF · 2023

65%

Heisman trajectory

Heisman Trajectory · 2025

Peak #4

Final rank

Avg #6.7

Finalist prob 47%

Peaked at #4 — sustained finalist conversation.

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Diego Pavia

Fans warmer than rivals

What fans are saying

One fan believes Vanderbilt's success is heavily dependent on Diego Pavia's presence

202212 games

202315 games

202413 games

202513 games

Program memory

2025 snapshot

Passing profile

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

POTY finalist (model)

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Scrambler

Players who play like Diego Pavia

Heisman trajectory

Peak #4