Q4 transformation · one-season descriptive
Fourth-quarter fade
2 times this season the team led entering the fourth quarter and lost — and it shows in the tape: 0.544 → -0.190 EPA/dropback into the fourth.
t=-2.86 (n=340/41), one season of descriptive data — never a predictive trait. Across ~200 QB-seasons screened at this threshold, expected false positives run near 5%.













Bowl
New York Giants