Justin Joly

Former tight end at NC State. 2025: 49 catches, 489 receiving yards, 7 TD.

TE · NC State · Sr. · #7

6′3″ · 251 lb · Brewster, NY

CFB Index 75 · #11 of 156 TEsMedium-low confidenceAll-Conf 1st teamDrafted by Denver — Rd 5, Pick 12, #152 overall

The numbers

489

receiving yards · 2025

49 catches · 7 TD · 10 per catch

Backed by 9 rec · 73 yds · 1 TD -- top 1% catches game.

Swing playSwung NC State from 23% to 46% to win.NC State at Pittsburgh · 53-34

His career numbers, season by season

The story

Former tight end at NC State. 2025: 49 catches, 489 receiving yards, 7 TD.

Signed as a 2-star recruit to UConn in 2022.
Transferred from UConn to NC State in 2024.
Drafted round 5 by the Denver in 2026.

The full story, with sources

How he plays

Shows up in the passing game from any alignment.

TD rate: 79th percentile.

The full scouting read

How it ended

Four seasons at NC State, 1,962 receiving yards, a first-team All-Conference season (2025) — drafted at #152 overall by Denver.

His career

Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.

20228 games

Signed with UConn2-star out of Iona Prep

202413 games

Entered the portal

202512 games

All-ACCfirst

2026

Drafted by Denverround 5, pick 152

Career arc

Recruit

★★

#2723 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2022–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

R5 · #152

Denver · 2026

Trophy case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

2 honors · 1 category

🥈

ALL-ACC · 1ST TEAM

All-ACC 1st team (2025)

Coaching lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach

2022–2025

Dave Doeren

NC State

Played his entire career under Dave Doeren.

Where He Ended Up · NFL

Denver2026 NFL rookie season

#152Rd 5 · Pick 12

Denver2026 NFL rookie season

View college career stats ↓

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2022UConn6-7HC: Jim Mora · Run-heavy, slow tempo

2023UConn3-9HC: Jim Mora · Balanced

2024NC State6-7HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced, slow tempo

2025NC State8-5HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced

Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

75Quality starter #11 of 156?

Medium-low confidence10 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rec tds (98th percentile). Strength: receptions (96th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

TD rate#166 / 798 · 79th pct

4.8%

Catch rate#193 / 798 · 76th pct

75.8%

EPA / target#245 / 798 · 69th pct

0.54

Explosive rate#411 / 798 · 48th pct

9.7%

Yards / catch#546 / 798 · 32nd pct

10.1

Box-score rates (5)

Rec TDs#2 / 175 · 98th pct

Receptions#7 / 175 · 96th pct

Rec yards#17 / 175 · 90th pct

489

Long catch#19 / 175 · 89th pct

Yards / catch#106 / 175 · 39th pct

10.0

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / target

82nd → 69th percentile

Explosive rate

95th → 48th percentile

Catch rate

42nd → 76th percentile

TD rate

39th → 79th percentile

Yards / catch

75th → 32nd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Receiving profile

Receiver profile · Targets, catch rate, and throw depth

How often he's targeted, and how well it works

49 rec · 489 yds · 7 TD

47 of 49 receptions matched to play-by-play

21 of 63 targets charted for true throw depth

Targets

6318% of team targets

Catch rate

75%47 of 63 targets

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

10% of targets (2)

100%catch rate

Air -1.5 · YAC 5.5 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

57% of targets (12)

75%catch rate

Air 3.9 · YAC 0.9 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

24% of targets (5)

80%catch rate

Air 14.2 · YAC 3.5 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

10% of targets (2)

100%catch rate

Air 22.0 · YAC 20.0 avg

75% catch rate on 63 targets · 18% of the team's targets.

Situational

Situational · Share of own targets (PBP, 2025)

Third-down role

18%11 of his 62 targets came on third down · TE median is 22%

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Home7g	4.4	41.1	9.5	0.4
Road5g	3.6	40.2	9.2	0.8

First half vs Second half

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Weeks 1-78g	4.0	35.6	8.6	0.4
Weeks 8+4g	4.2	51.0	10.8	1.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Dave Doeren

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

All-Conference 1st team

First team in his league at the position.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

75 · #11 of 156 TEs

Two-star recruit. Now #11 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	NC State	49	489	10.0	7	--
2024	NC State	43	661	15.4	4	--
2023	UConn	56	562	10.0	2	--
2022	UConn	18	250	13.9	2	--
Career		166	1,962	11.8	15	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2025

W 35–31

vs Virginia

4 rec · 41 yds

Edged out Virginia at home in a shootout.

With C. Bailey — 200 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 90.0 · 44 rush yds (6 car) · 2 TD · C. Noonkester — 49.8 yards per punt · 4 punts · 1 inside the 20

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 9 · Pittsburgh · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.66(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 T.Hoffmann pass complete deep right to #7 J.Joly caught at Pitt38, for 59 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:20, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
Week 13 · Florida State · 4&6 · Q4 · EPA +3.35(01:52) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #7 J.Joly caught at FSU00, for 12 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:47, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
Week 13 · Florida State · 2&14 · Q2 · EPA +3.09(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #7 J.Joly caught at NCSU36, for 27 yards to the NCSU48 (#24 K.Kirkland; #3 E.Joseph), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Week 3 · Wake Forest · 4&1 · Q1 · EPA +2.85CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Week 9 · Pittsburgh · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.70(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete deep middle to #7 J.Joly caught at Pitt02, for 25 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:08, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
Week 3 · Wake Forest · 3&4 · Q3 · EPA +2.70CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 4 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Week 1 · Memphis · 3&4 · Q3 · EPA +2.66(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #7 J.Joly caught at Mep41, for 17 yards to the Mep40 (#31 D.Ward), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Week 6 · Campbell · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.51CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 10 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Week 14 · North Carolina · 2&6 · Q2 · EPA +2.18(01:24) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #7 J.Joly caught at NCSU48, for 19 yards to the NCSU48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
Week 7 · Notre Dame · 3&5 · Q2 · EPA +1.98CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST down

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 24-17vs East Carolina	5	27	5.4	0	9
Wk 2	W 35-31vs Virginia	4	41	10.3	0	21
Wk 3	W 34-24@ Wake Forest	4	22	5.5	2	8	2 TD catches
Wk 4	L 33-45@ Duke	5	63	12.6	0	18
Wk 5	L 21-23vs Virginia Tech	6	60	10.0	0	22
Wk 6	W 56-10vs Campbell	4	43	10.8	1	15
Wk 7	L 7-36@ Notre Dame	2	8	4.0	0	6
Wk 9	L 34-53@ Pittsburgh	6	101	16.8	2	59	Season-high 101 yds
Wk 12	L 7-41@ Miami	1	7	7.0	0	7
Wk 13	W 21-11vs Florida State	5	66	13.2	1	27
Wk 14	W 42-19vs North Carolina	5	30	6.0	1	19
Bowl	W 31-7vs Memphis	2	21	10.5	0	17
Total		49	489	9.3	7	59