Justin Joly

#7 · TE · Sr. · NC State6′3″ · 251 lb · Brewster, NY · Iona Prep

Justin Joly: TE · NC State · #7.

Similar players

Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.

Drew PainterJames Madison · 2022 · 86% season match
Jeremiah FranklinBoston College · 2024 · 81% season match
Ryan JonesEast Carolina · 2021 · 74% season match
Josh CuevasAlabama · 2025 · 71% season match
Jack WestoverWashington · 2023 · 70% season match

Justin Joly

TE · NC State · Sr · #7

Shows up in the passing game from any alignment. The four seasons span two programs and two head coaches: Jim Mora and Dave Doeren. The first career honor came in 2025: All-ACC. One game to point at: 101 receiving yards and 6 receptions against Pittsburgh — Week 9, 2025.

Style of play

Play style

No single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike.

Fans

No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.

NC State in the news

Conner Rutherford decommits from NC StateOn3 Oct 28
Doeren calls out NIL resourcesBleacher Report Oct 27
Dave Doeren fired as NC State coachOct 24
NC State updates depth chartOct 21

Where to follow

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2025	NC State	49	489	10.0	7	59
2024	NC State	43	661	15.4	4	40
2023	UConn	56	562	10.0	2	59
2022	UConn	18	250	13.9	2	62
Career		166	1,962	11.8	15	62

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 24-17vs East Carolina	5	27	5.4	0	9
Wk 2	W 35-31vs Virginia	4	41	10.3	0	21
Wk 3	W 34-24@ Wake Forest	4	22	5.5	2	8	2 TD catches
Wk 4	L 33-45@ Duke	5	63	12.6	0	18
Wk 5	L 21-23vs Virginia Tech	6	60	10.0	0	22
Wk 6	W 56-10vs Campbell	4	43	10.8	1	15
Wk 7	L 7-36@ No. 16 Notre Dame	2	8	4.0	0	6
Wk 9	L 34-53@ Pittsburgh	6	101	16.8	2	59	Season-high 101 yds
Wk 12	L 7-41@ No. 16 Miami	1	7	7.0	0	7
Wk 13	W 21-11vs Florida State	5	66	13.2	1	27
Wk 14	W 42-19vs North Carolina	5	30	6.0	1	19
Bowl	W 31-7vs Memphis	2	21	10.5	0	17
Total		49	489	10.0	7	59

Signature game

Week 9 · 2025

L 34-53

at Pittsburgh

6 rec · 101 yds · 2 TD

With C. Bailey — 225 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 52.7 · 39 rush yds (6 car) · C. Noonkester — 44.6 yards per punt · 5 punts · 2 inside the 20

Signature plays

The plays that mattered most

Week 9 · Pittsburgh · 1st and 10 · Q2 · EPA +4.66Hoffmann to Joly: a 59-yard touchdown pass.
Week 13 · Florida State · 4th and 6 · Q4 · EPA +3.35Bailey to Joly: a 12-yard touchdown pass.
Week 13 · Florida State · 2nd and 14 · Q2 · EPA +3.09Bailey to Joly: a 27-yard pass.
Week 3 · Wake Forest · 4th and 1 · Q1 · EPA +2.85CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Week 9 · Pittsburgh · 1st and 10 · Q1 · EPA +2.70Bailey to Joly: a 25-yard touchdown pass.
Week 3 · Wake Forest · 3rd and 4 · Q3 · EPA +2.70CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 4 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)

4 more plays

Week 1 · Memphis · 3rd and 4 · Q3 · EPA +2.66Bailey to Joly: a 17-yard pass.
Week 6 · Campbell · 1st and 10 · Q2 · EPA +2.51CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 10 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
Week 14 · North Carolina · 2nd and 6 · Q2 · EPA +2.18Bailey to Joly: a 19-yard pass.
Week 7 · Notre Dame · 3rd and 5 · Q2 · EPA +1.98CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the ND 45 for a

Receiving profile

Receiver profile · Targets, catch rate, and throw depth

How often he's targeted, and how well it works

49 rec · 489 yds · 7 TD

47 of 49 receptions matched to play-by-play

21 of 63 targets charted for true throw depth

Targets

6318% of team targets

Catch rate

75%47 of 63 targets

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

10% of targets (2)

100%catch rate

Air -1.5 · YAC 5.5 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

57% of targets (12)

75%catch rate

Air 3.9 · YAC 0.9 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

24% of targets (5)

80%catch rate

Air 14.2 · YAC 3.5 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

10% of targets (2)

100%catch rate

Air 22.0 · YAC 20.0 avg

75% catch rate on 63 targets · 18% of the team's targets.

Situational

Situational · Share of own targets (PBP, 2025)

Third-down role

18%11 of his 62 targets came on third down · TE median is 22%

Teams and coaches

2022UConn6-7HC: Jim Mora · Run-heavy, slow tempo

2023UConn3-9HC: Jim Mora · Balanced

2024NC State6-7HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced, slow tempo

2025NC State8-5HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced

Our ratings

CFB Zeitgeist Score 75 (#11 of 156). Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles · 2025 season

75Quality starter #11 of 156 · 2025?

10 metrics · season cumulative

2025 score: the 2026 sample is not big enough yet. The rows below are 2026 so far. Elite: rec tds (98th percentile). Strength: receptions (96th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

TD rate#166 / 798 · 79th pct

4.8%

Catch rate#193 / 798 · 76th pct

75.8%

EPA / target#245 / 798 · 69th pct

0.54

Explosive rate#411 / 798 · 48th pct

9.7%

Yards / catch#546 / 798 · 32nd pct

10.1

Box-score rates (5)

Rec TDs#2 / 175 · 98th pct

Receptions#7 / 175 · 96th pct

Rec yards#17 / 175 · 90th pct

489

Long catch#19 / 175 · 89th pct

Yards / catch#106 / 175 · 39th pct

10.0

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / target

82nd → 69th percentile

Explosive rate

95th → 48th percentile

Catch rate

42nd → 76th percentile

TD rate

39th → 79th percentile

Yards / catch

75th → 32nd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps in 2025. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Home6g	4.8	44.5	9.3	0.5
Road5g	3.6	40.2	9.2	0.8

First half vs Second half

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Weeks 1-78g	4.0	35.6	8.6	0.4
Weeks 8+4g	4.2	51.0	10.8	1.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dave Doeren

Pass share

49.7%

411 pass / 416 run

Plays / game

63.6

13 games

Team sack rate

4.7%

422 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

All-Conference 1st team

First team in his league at the position.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score

75 · #11 of 156 TEs · 2025

Two-star recruit. Now #11 at the position.

Starter

The No. 2,723 recruit in the country is starting at tight end in the ACC as a senior.

Justin Joly

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Style of play