CFB Zeitgeist Score
68
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 85th percentile.
Keagan Johnson
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
754 REC YDS · 59 REC · 3 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to New Mexico for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Wide receiver · New Mexico
Returning around him
- 12% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 1 New Mexico player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +1 net (15 in / 14 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
New Mexico · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #131 · 2026 recruiting class #138
WR · NEW MEXICO · MOUNTAIN WEST
Keagan Johnson
- 4
- #6
- 6-0 | 199 lb
- Omaha, NE
Heisman Heat
#2230
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2021–2025+114%
Up 114% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#29 in market ▼ from #23 · 5 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kansas State -> New Mexico | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
| 2023 | Iowa -> Kansas State | 4-star | 0.9000 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (754).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Keagan Johnson
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Keagan Johnson
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Receiving yards (total)
754
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
Best by a New Mexico WR since Caleb Medford 2023.
National rank #78 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 86th
Why it matters
#78 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving yards — 754 yards on 59 receptions.
Vs cohort
This player 754 (86th)
HIGH · n=59 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Yards per reception#240 / 531
- Receiving TDs#222 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 10 at UNLV — 158 receiving_yards_total
Result W 40-35
The week the volume broke through — put up 158 yds at UNLV.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
754Rec yards
59Receptions
3Rec TDs
Per game
62.8Rec yards
5Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
816.8Rec yards
64Receptions
3Rec TDs
✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 754.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 754): needs 246/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 59): needs 1/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 59): needs 21/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 5/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 7/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Keagan Johnson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For New Mexico, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
59 94th
YDS
754 93rd
YPR
12.8 57th
TD
3 82nd
Rushing
CAR
2 53rd
YDS
9 47th
YPC
4.5 51st
TD
0 81st
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 17-34@ Michigan | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 2 | W 32-22vs Idaho State | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 5 | W 38-20vs New Mexico State | 5 | 117 | 23.4 | 1 | 48 | |
| Wk 6 | L 28-35@ San José State | 11 | 145 | 13.2 | 0 | 24 | 145-yard receiving day |
| Wk 7 | L 25-41@ Boise State | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 1 | 21 | |
| Wk 8 | W 24-22vs Nevada | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 9 | W 33-14vs Utah State | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 10 | W 40-35@ UNLV | 6 | 158 | 26.3 | 1 | 80 | Season-high 158 yds |
| Wk 12 | W 20-17vs Colorado State | 5 | 65 | 13.0 | 0 | 25 | |
| Wk 13 | W 20-3@ Air Force | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 14 | W 23-17vs San Diego State | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 | 17 | |
| Bowl | L 17-20@ Minnesota | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 | 16 | |
| Total | 59 | 754 | 12.2 | 3 | 80 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Iowa10-3HC: Kirk Ferentz · Run-leaning
2022Iowa8-5HC: Kirk Ferentz · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2023Kansas State9-4HC: Chris Klieman · Run-leaning
2025New Mexico9-4HC: Jason Eck · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | New Mexico | 59 | 754 | 12.8 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Kansas State | 24 | 227 | 9.5 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | Iowa | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | -- |
| 2021 | Iowa | 18 | 352 | 19.6 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 103 | 1,344 | 13.0 | 7 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | New Mexico | 2 | 9 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Kansas State | 8 | 26 | 19 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Iowa | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2021 | Iowa | 3 | 8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 13 | 43 | 19 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 59 | #69/1110 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 754 | #84/1107 | 93rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 3 | #206/1111 | 82nd pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 12.8 | #474/1106 | 57th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 29.3% | #12/1137 | 99th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 9 | #213/397 | 47th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 5 | #261/346 | 25th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.5 | #195/393 | 51st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 2 | #194/407 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 80 | #28/1105 | 98th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 26.1% | #2/1137 | 100th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 22.6% | #6/1137 | 100th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 15.4% | #13/1137 | 99th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 15.1% | #10/1137 | 99th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 11.7% | #31/1137 | 97th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 11.4% | #45/1137 | 96th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.7% | #239/1137 | 79th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 3.7 | 46.3 | 11.7 | 0.2 |
| Road6g | 6.2 | 79.3 | 12.8 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 4.0 | 61.4 | 13.8 | 0.2 |
| Losses4g | 6.8 | 65.8 | 9.2 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 5.5 | 64.7 | 11.3 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 4.3 | 61.0 | 13.2 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
68Solid starter
Elite: long catch (95th). Strength: receptions (87th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Keagan JohnsonNew MexicoCorey RuckerArkansas State· 89% simDevin VoisinSouth Alabama· 88% simKyre DuplessisDelaware· 88% sim
Long catch
Receptions
Rec yards
Rec TDs
Yards / catch
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Slot Technician
Runs precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Johntay Cook II’s 2025 season.
Johntay Cook II
83%match
#2
Quian Williams
All-MAC
82%
#3
Thayer Thomas
80%
#4
John Paul Richardson
80%
#5
Justin Garrett
75%
Matches Johntay on
Total EPA (college ability)
Yards / reception
EPA / play (adj)
Differs from Johntay on
Class year (higher)
Reception volume (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Isaiah Esdale’s path through Rice.
Isaiah Esdale
99%match
#2
Joshua Harris
99%
#3
Hunter Long
All-ACCNFL Rd 3 · Pk 18
96%
#4
Quian Williams
All-MAC
95%
#5
Jordan Dwyer
95%
Matches Isaiah on
Height
Yards per reception
Weight
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Keelan Marion's graduate season at Miami (2025).
Keelan Marion
80%match
All-Big 12
#2
Michael Jackson III
75%
#3
Chase Penry
70%
#4
Cam Ross
68%
#5
Jalil Farooq
64%
Matches Keelan on
Yards / reception
Weight
TD rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jason Eck
Pass share
43.3%
350 pass / 459 run
Plays / game
62.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.3%
293 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Danny Gonzales
New Mexico
2022
Danny Gonzales
New Mexico
2023
Danny Gonzales
New Mexico
2025era →
Jason Eck
New Mexico
Coaching transition mid-career: Danny Gonzales → Jason Eck. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownOmaha, NE
Height6'0"
Weight199 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey6
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNew Mexico
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Kansas State | WR4 | #2230 | #1987 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2023 | Kansas State | WR4 | #822 | #768 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2022 | Iowa | WR4 | #2834 | #2666 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2021 | Iowa | WR4 | #445 | #356 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | New Mexico | Mountain West | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Omaha, NE |
| 2024 | Kansas State | Big 12 | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Omaha, NE |
| 2023 | Kansas State | Big 12 | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Omaha, NE |
| 2022 | Iowa | Big Ten | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Omaha, NE |
| 2021 | Iowa | Big Ten | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Omaha, NE |