Luke Altmyer

Senior quarterback for Illinois. 2025: 3,007 passing yards, 22 TD, 5 INT.

QB · Illinois · Sr. · #9

6′2″ · 205 lb · Starkville, MS

CFB Index 76 · #21 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceReturning to Illinois for 2026

The numbers

3,007

passing yards · 2025

22 TD · 5 INT · 8.2 per attempt

Best game: 328 pass yds, 2 TD, 28 rush yds, vs USC

The play that turned itSwung Illinois from 36% to 77% to win.Illinois at Rutgers · 38-31

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 quarterback for Illinois. 2025: 3,007 passing yards, 22 TD, 5 INT.

Signed as a 4-star recruit to Ole Miss in 2021.
Transferred from Ole Miss to Illinois in 2023.

The full story, with sources

How he plays

Picks you apart underneath and protects the ball.

Success rate: 91st percentile.

The full scouting read

Luke Altmyer

QB · Illinois · Sr · #9

Picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Luke Altmyer has played for two head coaches across five seasons and two programs. 2025 brought the first one: All-Big Ten. The receipt: 390 pass yds, 3 rush yds against Purdue — Week 6, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
recognition record
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2021Ole Miss10-3HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-leaning, fast tempo

2022Ole Miss8-5HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-heavy, fast tempo

2023Illinois5-7HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced

2024Illinois10-3HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning, slow tempo

2025Illinois9-4HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

76All-Conference level #21 of 146?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: success rate (91st percentile). Strength: epa / dropback (90th percentile). Concern: sack rate (18th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#17 / 183 · 91st pct

47.2%

EPA / dropback#18 / 183 · 90th pct

0.36

Interception rate#37 / 183 · 80th pct

1.4%

Explosive rate#60 / 183 · 67th pct

10.1%

Sack rate#150 / 183 · 18th pct

7.5%

Box-score rates (8)

Completion %#23 / 183 · 87th pct

67.4%

Yards / att#32 / 183 · 83rd pct

8.2

Pass yards#36 / 183 · 81st pct

3007

Pass TDs#35 / 183 · 80th pct

Rush TDs#53 / 183 · 68th pct

Interceptions#53 / 183 · 67th pct

Rush yards#65 / 183 · 65th pct

242

Fumbles lost#87 / 174 · 38th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

81st → 90th percentile

Success rate

67th → 91st percentile

Explosive rate

48th → 67th percentile

Sack rate

26th → 18th percentile

Interception rate

71st → 80th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

240/357 (67.2%) · 22 TD · 5 INT

357 of 365 attempts matched to play-by-play

138 of 357 attempts charted for true throw depth

Adjusted ANY/A

7.6638 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

7.4%170 of 206 QBs

Sacked on 7.4% of dropbacks (170 of 206) — and still 38 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

12% of attempts (16)

88%comp1 INT

Air -2.4 · YAC 11.7 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

56% of attempts (77)

68%comp

Air 4.2 · YAC 3.6 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

20% of attempts (27)

41%comp1 INT

Air 14.1 · YAC 1.7 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

13% of attempts (18)

44%comp2 INT

Air 26.3 · YAC 0.9 avg

Overall 67.2% completion on 357 attempts · 44% completion on 18 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 45 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-33 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 6/137 (4.4%) · league sack rate 4.2% · ~our read

Down 2

+45 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/109 (3.7%) · league sack rate 4.5% · ~our read

Down 3+

-4 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 14/92 (15.2%) · league sack rate 7.8% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home8g	216	1.9	8.2	0.4
Road5g	256	1.4	9.4	0.4

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-78g	252	1.8	9.5	0.1
Weeks 8+5g	198	1.6	7.3	0.8

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Bret Bielema

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

76 · #21 of 146 QBs

Former four-star. Now #21 at the position.

2026 outlook

In the mix for All-Big Ten

Based on 2025: #6 of 19 Big Ten QBs

How the All-Big Ten estimate is computed

35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Illinois	246	365	67.4%	3,007	8.2	22	5	153.8	73	--	--
2024	Illinois	211	347	60.8%	2,717	7.8	22	6	144.0	51	--	--
2023	Illinois	175	270	64.8%	1,883	7.0	13	10	131.9	41	--	--
2022	Ole Miss	8	17	47.1%	125	7.4	2	1	135.9	--	--	--
2021	Ole Miss	20	37	54.1%	192	5.2	1	2	95.8	31	--	--
Career		660	1,036	63.7%	7,924	7.6	60	24	142.4	55	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Illinois	100	242	2.4	5	--
2024	Illinois	99	217	2.2	4	--
2023	Illinois	94	282	3.0	3	--
2022	Ole Miss	4	3	0.8	1	--
2021	Ole Miss	21	--	0.0	0	--
Career		318	744	2.3	13	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 5 · 2025

W 34–32

vs USC

328 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 97.5 · 28 rush yds (5 car) · 1 TD

Edged out USC at home in a shootout.

With H. Beatty — 3 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 100.0 · K. Feagin — 60 rush yds (14 car)

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 5 · USC · 2&8 · Q3 · EPA +5.95Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 64 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
Week 6 · Purdue · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.95Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 62 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
Week 4 · Indiana · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +4.66Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 59 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
Week 1 · Western Illinois · 2&11 · Q2 · EPA +4.53Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 59 yds to the WIU 4 for a 1ST down
Week 6 · Purdue · 2&11 · Q3 · EPA +4.16Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 49 yds to the PUR 1 for a 1ST down
Week 5 · USC · 2&8 · Q4 · EPA +4.00Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 61 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST down
Week 9 · Washington · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA -3.99(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass intercepted by #2 R.Clark at WASH11 #2 R.Clark return 0 yards to the WASH11 (#80 H.Beatty)
Week 10 · Rutgers · 3&17 · Q2 · EPA +3.85(11:48) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 24 yards gain to the RUT42 (#5 K.Sanders), 1ST DOWN
Week 6 · Purdue · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.69Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 40 yds to the PUR 40 for a 1ST down Purdue Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (An'Darius Coffey) to the PUR 25 for a 1ST down
Week 2 · Duke · 3&7 · Q3 · EPA +3.57Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 18 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Roughing Passer (Wesley Williams) to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST down

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 52-3vs Western Illinois	17/21	217	3	0	10.3	89.7	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 45-19@ Duke	22/31	296	3	0	9.5	85.9	3 TD passes
Wk 3	W 38-0vs Western Michigan	17/26	196	2	0	7.5	51.1
Wk 4	L 10-63@ Indiana	14/22	146	1	0	6.6	42.9
Wk 5	W 34-32vs USC	20/26	328	2	0	12.6	97.5	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 6	W 43-27@ Purdue	19/22	390	1	0	17.7	90.9	Season-high 390 yds
Wk 7	L 16-34vs Ohio State	30/44	248	1	1	5.6	64.4
Wk 9	L 25-42@ Washington	22/34	199	2	2	5.9	83.5
Wk 10	W 35-13vs Rutgers	19/31	235	4	1	7.6	88.9	4 TD passes
Wk 12	W 24-6vs Maryland	15/25	172	2	1	6.9	80.5
Wk 13	L 10-27@ Wisconsin	21/35	248	0	0	7.1	66.0
Wk 14	W 20-13vs Northwestern	10/15	136	0	0	9.1	16.5
Bowl	W 30-28vs Tennessee	20/33	196	1	0	5.9	69.9
Total		246/365	3007	22	5	8.6	71.4

How he plays

Play style

High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

64.7%Completion %

25.0%Conversion/dropback

54.5%Land short of sticks

1INTs

64.7% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 25.0% conversion-per-dropback — 54.5% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

5/21Inside-5 share

5 of the team's 21 inside-the-5 carries (23.8%).

2026 Outlook

Illinois

Preseason read · May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Illinois · editorial

Returning around him

21% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
3 Illinois players drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: -7 net (20 in / 27 out)

2026 Award watch

Manning Award
Davey O'Brien
Heisman Watch

Illinois · Last season: 9-4 (AP #23) · Talent rank #51 · 2026 recruiting class #24

DNA match

Player DNA

Pocket Surgeon

High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Brady Cook’s 2023 season.

Brady Cook

84%match

Missouri · 2023

Max Duggan

TCU · 2022

All-Big 12NFL Rd 7

76%

Brennan Armstrong

Virginia · 2021

All-ACC

73%

Ty Simpson

Alabama · 2025

All-SECNFL Rd 1 · Pk 13

72%

Jaxson Dart

Ole Miss · 2023

NFL Rd 1 · Pk 25

71%

Matches Brady on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Completion %

TD rate

Differs from Brady on

EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)

Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Eli Peters’s path through Toledo.

Eli Peters

90%match

Toledo · 2020

Brady Cook

Missouri · 2024

88%

Bailey Zappe

Western Kentucky · 2021

All-Conference USANFL Rd 4

88%

Shane Buechele

SMU · 2020

86%

Jaren Hall

BYU · 2022

NFL Rd 5

83%

Matches Eli on

Yards per attempt

Completion %

As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Payton Thorne's graduate season at Auburn (2024).

Payton Thorne

64%match

Auburn · 2024

Haynes King

Georgia Tech · 2024

All-ACC

62%

Brady Cook

Missouri · 2024

54%

Behren Morton

Texas Tech · 2025

NFL Rd 7

51%

Blake Shapen

Mississippi State · 2025

50%

Matches Payton on

TD rate

Completion %

Rush usage

Differs from Payton on

INT rate (lower)

Yards / attempt (lower)

Player DNA

Players who play like Luke Altmyer

Cam Fancher

Marshall · 2023

76%

Tony Muskett

Virginia · 2023

74%

Ty Simpson

Alabama · 2025

72%

Beau Pribula

Missouri · 2025

72%

Kaidon Salter

Colorado · 2025

68%

Heisman trajectory

Heisman Trajectory · 2025

Peak #29

Final rank

#29

Avg #30.0

Finalist prob 5%

Peaked at #29 this season.

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Luke Altmyer

Fans hotter than the country

20213 games

20239 games

202513 games

2025 snapshot

Passing profile

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Impact starter

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Pocket Surgeon

Players who play like Luke Altmyer

Heisman trajectory

Peak #29