Octavian Smith Jr.

Senior wide receiver for Maryland. 2025: 43 catches, 529 receiving yards.

WR · Maryland · Sr. · #5

6′0″ · 182 lb · Burtonsville, MD

CFB Index 48 · #242 of 485 WRsHigh confidenceReturning to Maryland for 2026

The numbers

529

receiving yards · 2025

43 catches · 12.3 per catch

Best game: 4 rec, 103 yds, vs Towson

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 wide receiver for Maryland. 2025: 43 catches, 529 receiving yards.

Signed as a 4-star recruit to Maryland in 2022.

His career, year by year

How he plays

Moves the chains on third down.

Yards / catch: 63rd percentile.

The full scouting read

Octavian Smith Jr.

WR · Maryland · Sr · #5

Moves the chains on third down. Fourth year in the Maryland receiving corps, same address the whole way. The receipt on tape: 113 rec yds, 6 receptions against Wisconsin, Week 4, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
seasons on the roster
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

4 seasons under Mike Locksley — 24-26 over that span.

2022Maryland8-5HC: Mike Locksley · Balanced

2023Maryland8-5HC: Mike Locksley · Pass-leaning

2024Maryland4-8HC: Mike Locksley · Pass-leaning

2025Maryland4-8HC: Mike Locksley · Pass-leaning

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

48Rotational starter #242 of 485?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: catch rate (9th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Yards / catch#298 / 798 · 63rd pct

12.6

Explosive rate#385 / 798 · 52nd pct

10.3%

EPA / target#567 / 798 · 29th pct

0.26

TD rate#507 / 798 · 18th pct

0.0%

Catch rate#728 / 798 · 9th pct

53.8%

Box-score rates (8)

Receptions#166 / 558 · 70th pct

Rec yards#194 / 558 · 65th pct

529

Rush yards#103 / 287 · 64th pct

Long catch#209 / 558 · 62nd pct

Yards / catch#317 / 558 · 42nd pct

12.3

Rush TDs#67 / 287 · 39th pct

Fumbles lost#86 / 218 · 36th pct

Rec TDs#482 / 558 · 7th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / target

42nd → 29th percentile

Explosive rate

36th → 52nd percentile

Catch rate

40th → 9th percentile

TD rate

50th → 18th percentile

Yards / catch

33rd → 63rd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Situational

Situational · Share of own targets (PBP, 2025)

Third-down role

26%20 of his 78 targets came on third down · Receiver median is 24%

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Home7g	3.4	46.3	13.0	0.0
Road5g	3.8	41.0	9.7	0.0

First half vs Second half

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	3.7	59.8	15.4	0.0
Weeks 8+6g	3.5	28.3	7.9	0.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Mike Locksley

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Rotational

Earning real snaps in the rotation without a starting job.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

48 · #242 of 485 WRs

Former four-star. Now #242 at the position.

2026 outlook

Outside shot for All-Big Ten

Based on 2025: #38 of 61 Big Ten WRs

How the All-Big Ten estimate is computed

15% estimated, 95% confidence interval 13–17%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Maryland	43	529	12.3	0	--
2024	Maryland	30	315	10.5	2	--
2023	Maryland	22	209	9.5	1	--
2022	Maryland	12	157	13.1	2	--
Career		107	1,210	11.3	5	--

Season	Team
2025	Maryland	4	22	--	19	--
2024	Maryland	1	2	95	--	--
2023	Maryland	2	-1	55	--	--
2022	Maryland	1	8	345	--	--
Career		8	31	495	19	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2025

W 44–17

vs Towson

4 rec · 103 yds

Dominant 27-point win at home against Towson.

With M. Washington — 261 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · QBR 94.8 · 29 rush yds (3 car) · 1 TD · B. McFerson — 48 AVG · 1 IN 20 · 52 LONG

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 3 · Towson · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +4.23Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 53 yds to the TOW 2 for a 1ST down
Week 7 · Nebraska · 3&5 · Q1 · EPA +2.97Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 19 yds to the NEB 45 for a 1ST down
Week 3 · Towson · 3&5 · Q2 · EPA +2.86Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 22 yds to the TOW 32 for a 1ST down
Week 3 · Towson · 3&11 · Q3 · EPA +2.73Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 13 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Wisconsin · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.69Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 26 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Wisconsin · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.66Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 48 yds to the WIS 17 for a 1ST down
Week 6 · Washington · 3&6 · Q3 · EPA +2.46Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 29 yds to the WASH 16 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Florida Atlantic · 2&6 · Q2 · EPA +2.34Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 22 yds to the FAU 41 for a 1ST down
Week 6 · Washington · 3&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.21Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 23 yds to the WASH 4 for a 1ST down
Week 12 · Illinois · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.18(06:47) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #5 O.Smith Jr. caught at UMD42, for 16 yards to the UMD42 (#6 J.Clarke), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 39-7vs Florida Atlantic	3	33	11.0	22
Wk 2	W 20-9vs Northern Illinois	3	18	6.0	10
Wk 3	W 44-17vs Towson	4	103	25.8	53
Wk 4	W 27-10@ Wisconsin	6	113	18.8	48	Season-high 113 yds
Wk 6	L 20-24vs Washington	3	57	19.0	29
Wk 7	L 31-34vs Nebraska	3	35	11.7	19
Wk 8	L 17-20@ UCLA	5	19	3.8	7
Wk 10	L 10-55vs Indiana	3	16	5.3	12
Wk 11	L 20-35@ Rutgers	1	7	7.0	7
Wk 12	L 6-24@ Illinois	4	37	9.3	16
Wk 13	L 20-45vs Michigan	5	62	12.4	22
Wk 14	L 28-38@ Michigan State	3	29	9.7	15
Total		43	529	11.6	53

How he plays

Play style

Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.

CFB Index positional classification

Money down · 3rd-down role

Catch rate says one thing, EPA says another

checked · no story

7/203rd-down conversions

0.603rd-down EPA/target

0.15Other-downs EPA/target

8 of 20 caught on third down (40.0%) — EPA/target 0.60 vs 0.15 elsewhere (7 conversions).

Catch rate is disclosed context only, never the gate — conversions and EPA/target are. Interception targets carry no attribution row at any source, so EPA/target here is unfixably, slightly inflated.

2026 Outlook

Maryland

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Wide receiver · Maryland

Returning around him