Fresno State 26-10 San José State (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Fresno State · San José State

Fresno State2-126

San José State2-210Final

Sat, Sep 19 · CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, Calif. · Crowd 18,256

Fresno State beat San José State 26-10.

We had Fresno State favored. It won.

Next: Fresno State beat Rice 38-24, Sat Sep 26

Next: San José State beat Hawai'i 20-16, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

yeah next man up please nobody should continue to start after throwing four picks in one game

Q4 3:28 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Weaver 1-yd TD pass to Clark, cuts it to 13-10 (Q4, 12:36). Fresno State went from 87% to 64% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Fresno State a 67% chance, and the closing betting line (Fresno State was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Fresno State won by 16, after dipping to 40% in the second quarter.

San José State never had better than a 60% chance.

FinalFresno State 26-10 San José StateFresno State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 5:40Weaver 46-yd pass to IveyFresno State 63% → 48% (−15)
2Q4 12:364th and 1Weaver 1-yd TD pass to Clark, cuts it to 13-10Fresno State 87% → 64% (−23)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 5:40Weaver 46-yd pass to IveySan José State 37% → 52% (+15)
2Q4 12:364th and 1Weaver 1-yd TD pass to Clark, cuts it to 13-10San José State 13% → 36% (+23)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 3:42Fresno State fans celebrate Mandal rushing for a first down while SJSU fans complain about missed callsMobile Mandal!! Love to see itr/CFB game thread
Q4 3:28Weaver throws fourth interception to Harris as fans call him awfulHow has Luke Weaver not been benched? You can't win games when you throw 4 picks?r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 1:09Donelson runs for a touchdown to make it 26-10 with 1:09 leftDonaldson with the touchdown!r/CFB game thread

Fresno State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Fresno State -4), at 55% for Fresno State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a San José State or Fresno State flair (42 and 121); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Fresno State scored on 6 of its 16 drives; San José State on 2 of its 15.

Fresno State’s drives are teal, San José State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From San José State’s side

San José State’s best moment: Weaver 1-yd TD pass to Clark, cuts it to 13-10 (Q4 12:36). It lifted San José State’s win chance by 23 points.

“pretty annoying that they forgot what a hold was all of a sudden this drive”

A Fresno State fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were at their loudest with the game on the line.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

Too close to call on 55% of plays.

What it cost

San José State’s chance to win the conference fell from 7% to 6%.

Win the conference

Fresno State · won6% → 6%

San José State · lost7% → ▼6%

Before the game (September 19, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Fresno State 26, San José State 10

Fresno State covered −4 by 12. The total, 36, stayed under 47.5.

Team totals	Fresno State	San José State
Total yards	354	335
Passing	15 of 29, 186 yds	21 of 38, 244 yds
Rushing	39 for 168 yds	32 for 91 yds
First downs	16	13
Third down	5 of 16	6 of 17
Fourth down	0 of 0	1 of 3
Turnovers	0	4
Penalties	10 for 70 yds	7 for 41 yds
Time of possession	33:52	26:08

Fresno State leaders

Passing Jayden Mandal 15 of 29, 186 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Bryson Donelson 9 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Rayshon Luke 14 for 49 yds
Receiving Josiah Freeman 6 for 95 yds, 1 TD; Ezekiel Avit 3 for 52 yds

San José State leaders

Passing Luke Weaver 21 of 38, 244 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT
Rushing Jabari Bates 19 for 94 yds; Isaiah Carlson 2 for 6 yds
Receiving Anthony Ivey 7 for 150 yds; Carson Clark 5 for 27 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

64° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 74°, with about 7 in 10 games between 66° and 86°.

Game-day temperatures at CEFCU Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 12:36 left10:50 p.m.

Fresno State 13, San José State 10 · San José State 36% to win

63°

Weaver 1-yd TD pass to Clark, cuts it to 13-10

Measured at San Jose/reid/hillv airport, 2.7 miles away, and San Jose International A airport, 4.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Fresno State · 1-1

Rated 53rd in our preseason ratings, 55th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 49-3 vs Sacramento State #130 of 668

won by 46 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 0-39 @ USCTop 25 #30 of 668

lost by 39 as a 21.5-point underdog

Last three games

San José State · 2-1

Rated 151st in our preseason ratings, 126th now, up 25 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 6-point win over Eastern Michigan as a 1.5-point underdog.

W 30-20 vs Cal Poly #215 of 668

won by 10 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 27-21 @ Eastern Michigan #101 of 668

won by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 26-42 @ USCTop 25 #30 of 668

lost by 16 as a 37.5-point underdog

Week by week

San José State

Wk 1Lat USC26-42
Wk 1Wat Eastern Michigan27-21
Wk 2Wvs Cal Poly30-20

Fresno State

Wk 1Lat USC0-39
Wk 2Wvs Sacramento State49-3

Power rating by week

Fresno State is rated 6.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: San José State’s explosive plays against Fresno State, 43 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

San José State’s explosive plays against Fresno State’s defense
San José State offense, 29th percentile · Fresno State defense, 72nd
San José State’s EPA/play against Fresno State’s defense
San José State offense, 48th percentile · Fresno State defense, 65th
San José State’s rushing EPA against Fresno State’s defense
San José State offense, 42nd percentile · Fresno State defense, 63rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Fresno StateSan José State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Fresno State leads the series 39-31

70 meetings since 1950 · Fresno State has won the last 2

2025Fresno State 41-14
2024Fresno State 33-10
2023San José State 42-18
2022Fresno State 17-10
2021Fresno State 40-9

Each line is San José State’s chance to win through that meeting. San José State is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

San José State fans are in a better mood than Fresno State fans (90th vs 75th among FBS fanbases), even with Fresno State favored.

Fresno State favored by 4 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Fresno State by 4, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3.5 points toward San José State.

The total fell 5 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

San José State is worth +3.2 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 33rd percentile.

57% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (24-18 home, 15-31 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.9 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 121 miles to get here.

Fresno State beats San José State 26-10