No. 25 Houston beats Georgia Southern 42-28
Team pages: Houston · Georgia Southern
No. 25 Houston beat Georgia Southern 42-28. Share this game
We had Houston favored. It won.
Next: Houston beat UCF 27-17, Sat Oct 3
Next: Georgia Southern beat Coastal Carolina 31-24, Sat Oct 3
Top comment in the game thread
Well this isn’t ideal
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Houston an 81% chance, and the closing betting line (Houston was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.
Favored the whole way: Houston never fell below 79%.
Georgia Southern never had better than a 20% chance.
Houston 42-28 Georgia Southern
Houston wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Georgia Southern 28-42 HoustonGeorgia Southern lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 10:02Georgia Southern ties the game 14-14 with a touchdown, sparking Houston fan outrageQuoted at the top of the page.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Houston -17.5), at 84% for Houston (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Houston’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 10:30Weigman 5-yd TD runHouston goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:30 · Houston 7, Georgia Southern 0▲4%Houston’s chance to win, 89% to 93%▲4%Houston’s chance to win, 89% to 93%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 2:31Weigman 22-yd TD pass to YoungHouston leads 14-0Q1, 2:31 · Houston 14, Georgia Southern 0▲3%Houston’s chance to win, 94% to 97%▲3%Houston’s chance to win, 94% to 97%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 9:28Cummings 2-yd TD runties it 14-14Q2, 9:28 · Houston 14, Georgia Southern 14▼9%Houston’s chance to win, 89% to 80%▼9%Houston’s chance to win, 89% to 80%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:52Weigman 2-yd TD pass to FrederickHouston leads 28-14Q2, 0:52 · Houston 28, Georgia Southern 14▲6%Houston’s chance to win, 91% to 97%▲6%Houston’s chance to win, 91% to 97%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 11:25Weigman 23-yd TD pass to WalkerHouston leads 34-14Q3, 11:25 · Houston 34, Georgia Southern 1434-14score after the play34-14score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 6:34Johnson 23-yd TD pass to Taylorcuts it to 35-21Q3, 6:34 · Houston 35, Georgia Southern 2135-21score after the play35-21score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Houston scored on 6 of its 8 drives; Georgia Southern on 4 of its 9.
Houston’s drives are teal, Georgia Southern’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“wat da fuq is going on man”
When fans got loud
Busy
It was the second quarter that had fans talking the most.
The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Houston’s chance to make the playoff rose from 8% to 9%.
Make the playoff
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Houston 42, Georgia Southern 28
Georgia Southern covered +17.5 by 3.5. The total, 70, went over 56.5.
| Team totals | Houston | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 441 | 355 |
| Passing | 17 of 22, 239 yds | 27 of 39, 289 yds |
| Rushing | 41 for 202 yds | 26 for 66 yds |
| First downs | 28 | 22 |
| Third down | 8 of 9 | 7 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 4 for 45 yds | 9 for 64 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:39 | 31:21 |
Houston leaders
- Passing Conner Weigman 17 of 22, 239 yds, 4 TD
- Rushing Re'Shaun Sanford II 17 for 120 yds; Makhi Hughes 16 for 70 yds
- Receiving Trent Walker 6 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Patrick Overmyer 3 for 68 yds
Georgia Southern leaders
- Passing Max Johnson 26 of 38, 284 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing David Mbadinga 6 for 37 yds; Weston Bryan 6 for 25 yds
- Receiving Alex Taylor 6 for 119 yds, 2 TD; Taeo Todd 2 for 46 yds
No rain through the game
81° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Statesboro/bulloch Co airport, 5.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Houston · 2-1
Rated 20th in our preseason ratings, 12th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Georgia Southern · 1-2
Rated 99th in our preseason ratings, 84th now, up 15 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 31-0 vs Charleston Southern #219 of 668
won by 31 as a 28.5-point favorite
Week by week
Georgia Southern
- Wk 1Wvs Charleston Southern31-0
- Wk 2Lat Clemson7-22
- Wk 3Lat Jacksonville State27-31
Houston
- Wk 1Wvs Oregon State33-20
- Wk 2Wvs Southern77-6
- Wk 3Lat Texas Tech26-28
Power rating by week
Houston is rated 9.3 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Houston’s passing EPA against Georgia Southern, 75 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Houston’s passing EPA against Georgia Southern’s defense
Houston offense, 97th percentile · Georgia Southern defense, 22nd
Houston’s explosive plays against Georgia Southern’s defense
Houston offense, 9th percentile · Georgia Southern defense, 71st
Houston’s EPA/play against Georgia Southern’s defense
Houston offense, 99th percentile · Georgia Southern defense, 58th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Houston fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (82nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 19%
- Line · 8%
- Georgia Southern fans · 0th
- Houston fans · 82nd
Houston favored by 17.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
Houston by 17.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Georgia Southern.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +19.5 → +17.5 · Total: 55.5 → 56.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 79° at kickoff.
Houston at Georgia Southern · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro
- 79°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 98weather score, Comfortable
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Allen E. Paulson Stadium that day, a 5 pm, 6 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 98 at 4 pm.
- noon: 99, Comfortable
- 12:45 pm: 98, Comfortable
- 2 pm: 97, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 97, Comfortable
- 4 pm: 98, Comfortable (this game)
- 5 pm: 100, Ideal
- 6 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Georgia Southern is worth +6.5 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 89th percentile.
63% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (27-16 home, 19-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.2 at home vs. away over 103 games — outside the ±5.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 823 miles to get here.