#29

Ahmad Hardy

Ahmad Hardy led the Power Four in rushing and the entire country in yards after contact. PFF calls him the No. 1 returning running back in college football. The tackle that brings him down on first contact mostly doesn't exist.

RB · Missouri · Jr. · #29

5′10″ · 210 lb · Oma, MS · Lawrence County

CFB Index 94 · #2 of 326 RBsHigh confidenceNational watchReturning to Missouri for 2026

via mutigers.com ↗

Next upSat Sep 19 · 7 pm ETvs TroyMemorial StadiumMissouri by 26.5

The numbers

1,649

rushing yards · 2025

16 TD · 6.4 per carry · 6 catches

Backed by 25 car · 300 yds · 3 TD -- top 0.1% rushing yards game.

The play that turned itSwung Missouri from 17% to 64% to win.Missouri at Auburn · 23-17

His career numbers, season by season

The story

Signed as a 3-star recruit to UL Monroe in 2024.
Transferred from UL Monroe to Missouri in 2025.
Named All-America (Consensus) in 2025.
Ahmad Hardy cleared to play (Jul 20)

The full story, with sources

How he plays

Hits the crease and outruns the angle.

Success rate: 79th percentile.

The full scouting read

The story

In 2025 he ran for 1,648 yards -- the most by any Power Four back -- and 16 touchdowns, and he did it the hard way: a nation-leading 1,181 yards after contact, the signature of a runner defenses simply can't bring down on first touch. He's a transfer-up story too, a former Sun Belt Freshman of the Year at ULM who carried his production straight into the SEC. Now PFF ranks him the No. 1 returning running back in the sport. The forward stakes are individual hardware and a Missouri offense built around him: in a year without an obvious skill-position Heisman favorite, the Power Four's leading returning rusher is exactly the kind of non-quarterback dark horse who can crash the race. For Hardy, 2026 is the year the best-kept secret becomes the headline.

SOURCES

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2024UL Monroe5-7HC: Bryant Vincent · Run-heavy, slow tempo

2025Missouri8-5HC: Eli Drinkwitz · Run-heavy

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

94All-America level #2 of 326?

High confidenceAscending13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush yards (100th percentile). Strength: carries (99th percentile). Concern: rec yards (14th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#92 / 456 · 79th pct

50.0%

EPA / carry#99 / 456 · 78th pct

0.24

Yards / carry#103 / 456 · 78th pct

5.7

TD rate#107 / 456 · 77th pct

4.5%

Explosive rate#125 / 456 · 73rd pct

8.5%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush yards#2 / 349 · 100th pct

1649

Carries#3 / 349 · 99th pct

256

Rush TDs#4 / 349 · 99th pct

Yards / carry#31 / 349 · 91st pct

6.4

Long run#48 / 349 · 86th pct

Fumbles lost#55 / 201 · 49th pct

Receptions#253 / 338 · 23rd pct

Rec yards#289 / 338 · 14th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / carry

52nd → 78th percentile

Success rate

33rd → 79th percentile

Explosive rate

46th → 73rd percentile

Yards / carry

68th → 78th percentile

TD rate

62nd → 77th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Situational

Situational · Carry shape (PBP, full season)

Yardage DNA

247 carries

15%

Stuffed (≤0)

35%

Grind (1–3)

34%

Chunk (4–9)

15%

Explosive (10+)

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home9g	142	7.6	1.4
Road4g	92.2	4.1	0.8

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-77g	124	6.8	1.3
Weeks 8+6g	130	6.1	1.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Eli Drinkwitz

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2026

National watch / fringe AA

In the All-America conversation, short of a selector's first team.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

2026 outlook

In the mix to repeat All-SEC

Based on 2025: #1 of 37 SEC RBs

How the All-SEC estimate is computed

49% estimated, 95% confidence interval 43–54%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Selector Grid · 2026

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Missouri	256	1,649	6.4	16	--
2024	UL Monroe	237	1,352	5.7	13	--
Career		493	3,001	6.1	29	--

Season	Team
2025	Missouri	6	22	3.7	--
2024	UL Monroe	8	72	9.0	--
Career		14	94	6.7	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 8 · 2025

W 23–17

at Auburn

58 rush yds (24 car) · 2 TD

A wire-to-wire battle — won by 6 on the road.

With B. Pribula — 252 yds · 0 TD · 2 INT · QBR 76.4 · 28 rush yds (16 car) · 1 TD · C. Weselman — 46 AVG · 1 IN 20 · 52 LONG

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 12 · Mississippi State · 2&6 · Q3 · EPA +6.25(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 72 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:56, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)
Week 3 · Louisiana · 2&6 · Q2 · EPA +6.19Ahmad Hardy run for 71 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
Week 11 · Texas A&M · 2&10 · Q4 · EPA +4.47(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 45 yards gain to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:45, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)
Week 14 · Arkansas · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +4.10(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 53 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:57, 1ST DOWN rush attempt failed
Week 12 · Mississippi State · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +3.42(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 34 yards gain to the MSU31 (#1 K.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Week 1 · Central Arkansas · 2&4 · Q3 · EPA +3.40Ahmad Hardy run for 44 yds to the CARK 35 for a 1ST down
Week 12 · Mississippi State · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +3.35(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 43 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:11, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)
Week 12 · Mississippi State · 3&8 · Q4 · EPA +3.24(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 19 yards gain to the MSU43 (#28 T.Johnson; #10 J.Smith), 1ST DOWN
Week 4 · South Carolina · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.03Ahmad Hardy run for 38 yds to the SC 37 for a 1ST down
Week 11 · Texas A&M · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.90(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 40 yards gain to the Mizzou49 (#25 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWN

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 61-6vs Central Arkansas	10	100	10.0	1	44
Wk 2	W 42-31vs Kansas	25	112	4.5	1	32
Wk 3	W 52-10vs Louisiana	22	250	11.4	3	71	3 rushing TDs
Wk 4	W 29-20vs South Carolina	22	138	6.3	1	38
Wk 5	W 42-6vs Massachusetts	24	130	5.4	3	18	3 rushing TDs
Wk 7	L 24-27vs Alabama	12	52	4.3	0	11
Wk 8	W 23-17@ Auburn	24	58	2.4	2	17
Wk 9	L 10-17@ Vanderbilt	20	97	4.9	0	17
Wk 11	L 17-38vs Texas A&M	13	109	8.4	1	45
Wk 12	W 49-27vs Mississippi State	25	300	12.0	3	72	Season-high 300 yds
Wk 13	L 6-17@ Oklahoma	17	57	3.4	0	20
Wk 14	W 31-17@ Arkansas	27	157	5.8	1	53	157-yard day
Bowl	L 7-13vs Virginia	15	89	5.9	0	43
Total		256	1649	6.5	16	72

How he plays

Play style

Hardy is contact balance personified. The defining number is the one he led the nation in -- 1,181 yards after contact -- and our play-by-play backs the whole package: an 87th-percentile rushing-touchdown rate (he finishes), an 81st-percentile EPA per carry, and a 78th-percentile yards-per-carry on genuine workhorse volume. He runs behind his pads, keeps his legs churning through arm tackles, and turns would-be three-yard gains into seven. He's not purely a track-speed home-run hitter -- his explosive-run rate is good, not elite (70th percentile) -- which makes the production all the more impressive: this is yards won by force, not just by speed. He's a downhill, between-the-tackles hammer who gets stronger as the game wears on, the kind of back an offense can lean its whole identity on.

Our classifier reads him the same way: hits the crease and outruns the angle.

Boom vs consistent · carry-yardage shape

Steady, not spectacular

~ our read

247Carries

1416Yards

16.7%Top-5 share

15.4%Stuffed rate

Just 16.7% of his season rushing yards came on his 5 best carries — remarkably even — and he's stuffed on 15.4% of his carries. 12 carries for 52 yds vs Alabama; 21 for 249 vs Louisiana.

Closer · Q4-with-lead carry share

Not actually a closer

checked · no story

48.6%Carry share

25.9%Q4-lead share

68.2%In competitive games

48.6% of carries overall (251/516) → 25.9% of Q4-with-lead carries (22/85) — 68.2% of those in competitive (≤16-pt) games.

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

15/163rd/4th & short

12/29Inside-5 share

15 of 16 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (93.8%). 12 of the team's 29 inside-the-5 carries (41.4%).

2026 Outlook

Missouri

Preseason read · May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Running back · Missouri · editorial

Returning around him

42% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
6 Missouri players drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: +3 net (30 in / 27 out)

2026 Award watch

Doak Walker

Missouri · Last season: 8-5 (AP #25) · Talent rank #19 · 2026 recruiting class #34

DNA match

Player DNA

Speed Merchant

Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to DeWayne McBride’s 2022 season.

DeWayne McBride

68%match

UAB · 2022

All-Conference USANFL Rd 7

Abram Smith

Baylor · 2021

All-Big 12

64%

Blake Corum

Michigan · 2022

Consensus All-AmericanNFL Rd 3 · Pk 19

64%

Mohamed Ibrahim

Minnesota · 2022

All-Big Ten

59%

Jordan James

Oregon · 2024

All-Big TenNFL Rd 5

57%

Matches DeWayne on

Yards / carry

Weight

Total rush EPA (college ability)

Differs from DeWayne on

Height (lower)

Rush TD rate (lower)

Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jermar Jefferson’s path through Oregon State.

Jermar Jefferson

95%match

Oregon State · 2020

All-Pac-12NFL Rd 7

Jordan James

Oregon · 2024

All-Big TenNFL Rd 5

94%

DeSean Bishop

Tennessee · 2025

All-SEC

93%

Samuel Singleton

Florida State · 2025

88%

Ryan Montgomery

Cincinnati · 2023

88%

Matches Jermar on

Yards per carry

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Kenneth Walker's sophomore season at Michigan State (2021).

Kenneth Walker

77%match

Michigan State · 2021

DeWayne McBride

UAB · 2021

All-Conference USANFL Rd 7

67%

Abram Smith

Baylor · 2021

All-Big 12

64%

Jaylen Wright

Tennessee · 2022

All-SECNFL Rd 4

63%

B.J. Baylor

Oregon State · 2021

61%

Matches Kenneth on

Yards / carry

Weight

Receiving share

Differs from Kenneth on

Class year (lower)

Yards / reception (lower)

Player DNA

Players who play like Ahmad Hardy

Evan Dickens

Liberty · 2025

67%

Background

2025: Rushed for 100-plus yards in the first five games of the 2025 season and seven overall (100 vs. Central Arkansas; 112 vs. Kansas; 250 vs. Louisiana; 138 vs. South Carolina; 130 vs. UMass; 109 vs. Texas A&M; 300 vs. Miss. St.; 157 at Arkansas ) … Doak Walker Award finalist … Walter Camp Nati...

via mutigers.com ↗

The backfield · Missouri

#29Ahmad HardyRB · Jr.1,649 rushing yards · 2025
#20Jamal RobertsRB · Sr.753 rushing yards · 2025
#31Anthony FavrowRB · Sr.4 rushing yards · 2025
#26Brady HultmanRB · Sr.1 game · 2025
#24Xai'Shaun EdwardsRB · Jr.2 games · 2026

3 more on the roster · Missouri team page

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Ahmad Hardy

The story

202412 games

202513 games

2026

2025 snapshot

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

National watch / fringe AA

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Speed Merchant

Players who play like Ahmad Hardy

Background

The backfield · Missouri