Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 1 game
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-18vs South Dakota State | 14/24 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 11.4 | — | Season-high 273 yds |
| Total | 14/24 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 11.4 | — |
#2
Aidan Chiles
Senior quarterback for Northwestern. 2026: 1 game with a box-score line.
6′4″ · 225 lb · Long Beach, CA · Downey
CFB Index 44 · #83 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceWatch-list name (model)Transferred Michigan State → Northwestern for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
273
passing yards · 2026
1 TD · 0 INT · 11.4 per attempt
1 game into 2026 so far -- Best game: 273 pass yds, 1 TD, 18 rush yds, vs South Dakota State
The play that turned itSwung Michigan State from 19% to 63% to win.UCLA at Michigan State · 38-13
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
4 quarterback for Northwestern. 2026: 1 game with a box-score line.
- Signed as a 4-star recruit to Oregon State in 2023.
- Transferred from Michigan State to Northwestern in 2026.
- Aidan Chiles named Northwestern starter (Aug 24) Reported
Aura™ · Him Watch
Underrated
-24aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 53rd percentile of QBs; the tape says
78th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=68
— the tape outruns the hype.Aura — fan perception53rd pctl
Production — on-field78th pctl
n=68 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = our passing-value metric (wEPA)
Buzz vs Tape
Attention percentile: 54th · Production percentile: 78th
His production sits in the 78th percentile among qualified QBs this season, well ahead of 54th-percentile attention — a gap of 24 points between tape and volume.
54thattention percentile · vs QBs
78thproduction percentile · vs QBs
Also worth knowing:
In Their Words
155 windows · 2026 fan posts
aidan×207.9dakota×50.2starting×13.1michigan×10.7south×13.0
Aidan Chiles
Operates within the system without forcing anything. Two head coaches in four seasons, at three different programs. His first career honor landed in 2025: All-Big Ten. The receipt on tape: 273 pass yds, 18 rush yds against South Dakota State, Week 1, 2026.
273 PASS YDS · 1 PASS TD · 18 RUSH YDS
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
- season totals
- positional archetype classification
- head-coach lineage
- recognition record
- game log
His career
He arrived as a blue-chip recruit and played like one.
The week the volume broke through — put up 76 yds vs Youngstown State.Youngstown State · W 41-242025
20239 games
- Signed with Oregon State4-star out of Downey
202412 games
- Entered the portal
20258 games
- All-Big Ten
2026
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
1 coach2023–2026
Northwestern
Played his entire career under David Braun.
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Northwestern
2025Michigan State
2026Northwestern
2026 snapshot
Season context · Team result + system
2023Oregon State8-5HC: Jonathan Smith · Run-leaning
2024Michigan State5-7HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced, slow tempo
2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced
2026Northwestern1-0HC: David Braun · Run-leaning, slow tempo
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidence
Elite: yards / att (100th percentile). Strength: interceptions (92nd percentile). Concern: pass yards (0th percentile).
Box-score rates (7)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Splits & context
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 1 game: 273 YDS/g, 1.0 TD/g, 11.4 YPA, 0.0 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
David Braun
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 1 game in so far.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
Watch-list name (model)
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career stats
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Northwestern | 14 | 24 | 58.3% | 273 | 11.4 | 1 | 0 | 167.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Michigan State | 128 | 203 | 63.1% | 1,392 | 6.9 | 10 | 3 | 134.0 | 39 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Michigan State | 192 | 324 | 59.3% | 2,415 | 7.5 | 13 | 12 | 127.7 | 59 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Oregon State | 24 | 35 | 68.6% | 309 | 8.8 | 4 | 0 | 180.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 358 | 586 | 61.1% | 4,389 | 7.5 | 28 | 15 | 134.7 | 51 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Northwestern | 8 | 18 | 2.2 | 1 | -- |
| 2025 | Michigan State | 81 | 227 | 2.8 | 6 | -- |
| 2024 | Michigan State | 96 | 234 | 2.4 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Oregon State | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 3 | -- |
| Career | 202 | 558 | 2.8 | 13 | -- |
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 34–18
273 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · 18 rush yds (8 car) · 1 TD
With J. Himon II — 87 rush yds (4 car) · 1 TD · G. Wilde — 3 rec · 104 yds
Signature plays
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +3.97(12:25) #0 A.Chiles pass complete deep middle to #17 G.Wilde caught at SDSU46, for 71 yards to the SDSU11 (#28 C.Van Tol), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 3&8 · Q2 · EPA +2.91(08:56) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NU49, for 25 yards to the SDSU23 (#21 M.Green), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 3&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.85(04:36) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #17 G.Wilde caught at SDSU35, for 17 yards to the SDSU29 (#28 C.Van Tol; #21 M.Green), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 3&6 · Q4 · EPA +2.84(06:51) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at NU48, for 17 yards to the NU50 (#28 C.Van Tol), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SDSU Holding declined
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 3&1 · Q4 · EPA +2.62(04:37) #0 A.Chiles rush left for 14 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:34, 1ST DOWN #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 2&3 · Q1 · EPA -2.62(05:26) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 7 yards to the SDSU46 (#97 B.Leiferman)
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.52(11:44) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #86 A.Honig caught at SDSU00, for 11 yards to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:42, 1ST DOWN #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +1.85(08:28) #0 A.Chiles pass complete deep right to #19 D.Wagner caught at SDSU43, for 22 yards to the SDSU42 (#18 J.Krcil), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +1.32(02:16) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #6 J.Himon II caught at NU30, for 15 yards to the NU40 (#4 M.Farr; #24 M.Stanard), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +1.22(10:49) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #86 A.Honig caught at NU28, for 14 yards to the NU39 (#5 C.McShane), 1ST DOWN
Game log
How he plays
Play style
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
CFB Index positional classification
DNA match
Player DNA
Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Brendan Sorsby’s 2024 season.
Matches Brendan on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Rush yards / carry
Differs from Brendan on
Recruiting rating (higher)
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Weight (lower)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Katin Houser’s path through East Carolina.
89%match
Matches Katin on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Garrett Shrader's junior season at Syracuse (2022).
66%match
Matches Garrett on
Height
Differs from Garrett on
Class year (lower)
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Yards / attempt (lower)
Player DNA
Players who play like Aidan Chiles
Heisman trajectory
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peak #10
Peaked at #10 — top-10 conversation.
Background
2025 Junior (at Michigan State): Played in first nine games, including starting first eight games of season, before missing last three (Minnesota, Penn State and Iowa) games with an injury … completed 63 percent of his passes (128-of-203) for 1,392 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions … l...
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology