Aidan Chiles

#2 · QB · Northwestern6′4″ · 225 lb · Long Beach, CA · Downey

ZPR7116th of 119 QBs HeismanNo. 8in our model Last gameL 26–34at Oregon · Oct 31

Nextvs IowaSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET

Graded Solid or better in each of the last two games.

Last game: L 26-34 at Oregon, Oct 31 · 22 of 38 for 281 yards, a touchdown · 14 carries for 93 yards, a rushing touchdown. Started all eight of Northwestern’s games.

Northwestern’s next game: vs Iowa, Sat Nov 7, 7:30 p.m. ET · FOX

Northwestern is 6-2 in the eight games played. A chain-mover who runs a lot.

Strongest: an interception on 0.5% of throws, 10th lowest of 158 starters. Weakest: sacked on 8% of dropbacks, 31st highest of 158 starters.

Plays most like Altmyer ’25, Illinois 2025.

Passing yards

1,898

139 of 202, 69%

TD–INT

13–1

9.4 per throw

NCAA rating

168.0

15th of 119

ZPR

16th of 119

How ZPR works

Solid or better in 7 of 8 graded games.

Best by our grade: at Indiana. Lowest: at Michigan State, sacked 5 times. Biggest game: at Indiana, No. 5. Best play: Completion for 1 yards, touchdown, at Michigan State, Q4 7:24. Win chance 26% to 50%.

Tap a game for its plays

Q1Q2Q3Q4

South Dakota State

W 34–18·FCS

Solid

273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · Rush 8 for 18, 1 TD · Sacked 2

Man this pass protection + Chiles holding onto the ball for so long is going to be brutal all season
Northwestern fan

Biggest swing: a Q1 completion added 20 points of win chance. Win chance: 64% to 84%.

Full game page

Colorado

W 41–7·Unranked

Great

241 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · Rush 9 for 2, 2 TD · Sacked 1

Chiles has been really good
Northwestern fan

Biggest swing: a Q1 run added 15 points of win chance. Win chance: 63% to 77%.

Full game page

at Indiana

L 23–29·Ranked #5

Fans talked about this game

Great

293 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · Rush 13 for 0, 1 TD · Sacked 2

Chiles is far from perfect but *they aren't open*
Northwestern fan

Biggest swing: a Q4 run added 34 points of win chance. Win chance: 5% to 40%.

Full game page

Penn State

W 34–13·Unranked

Solid

93 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · Rush 6 for 21, 1 TD · Sacked 1

Chicago has some fun sports legends right now. PCA, Caleb Williams, Aidan Chiles.
Northwestern fan

Biggest swing: a Q1 run added 16 points of win chance. Win chance: 69% to 84%.

Full game page

Ball State

W 45–14·Unranked

Great

Strong start, faded late · 272 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · Rush 8 for 32, 1 TD · Sacked 1

Don't forget, it's a revenge game for Chiles too.
Northwestern fan

Biggest swing: a Q1 run added 15 points of win chance. Win chance: 63% to 78%.

Full game page

at Michigan State

W 24–21·Unranked

Fans talked about this game

Shaky

Passing grade only · Slow start, strong finish · 226 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · Rush 16 for 25, 1 TD · Sacked 5

Considering Chiles destroyed Indiana’s secondary in the second half that’s simply not true
Northwestern fan

Biggest swing: a Q4 run added 44 points of win chance. It flipped the game for the team: 18% to 62%.

Full game page

Rutgers

W 42–14·Unranked

Solid

Passing grade only · 219 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · Rush 12 for 83, 2 TD · Sacked 1

Chiles is responsible for 18 TDs with NO turnovers
Northwestern fan

Biggest swing: a Q1 completion added 12 points of win chance. Win chance: 68% to 81%.

Full game page

at Oregon

L 26–34·Unranked

Fans talked about this game

Solid

Passing grade only · Strong start, faded late · 281 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · Rush 14 for 93, 1 TD · Sacked 3

sure Jeremiah smith is incredible, but I’m not sure there is a player in all of college football who has elevated his team more than Aidan Chiles
Northwestern fan

Biggest swing: a Q1 completion added 19 points of win chance. Win chance: 60% to 78%.

Full game page

Season

Fades after halftime

How to read this

Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for the quarterback, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game; on games with a lot of running it grades the passing only. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming the quarterback. Dashed outlines on the Season row are last season’s average. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of the quarterback’s plays, up helped the team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.

The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as the season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.

Style of play

Chain-mover

Also: mobile, big-play arm

Why this word

Runs7.4 a gameRarelyA lot

Throws8.9 yards past the lineShortDeep

Completes67% by play-by-playFewerMore

Takes sacks8% of dropbacksRarelyOften

The dot is this quarterback, among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.

Throws at a middling depth and runs a lot. 7.4 carries a game. Closest matches: Altmyer ’25, Chambliss ’25, Kienholz, Lopez.

Where the throws go

Behind the line11%typical 17%

Short49%typical 47%

Middle29%typical 22%

Deep11%typical 14%

Runs 7.4 times a game; 82% of starters run less.

Closest in style

Nearer the middle means more alike.

Altmyer ’25 Illinois 2025 · Chain-mover
3,007 yards, 22 TD, 5 INT. Both complete a lot and take sacks.
Chambliss ’25 Ole Miss 2025 · Dual-threat
3,937 yards, 22 TD, 3 INT. Both are efficient and complete a lot.
Kienholz Louisville · Dual-threat
2,094 yards, 12 TD, 3 INT so far. Both complete a lot and are efficient.
Lopez Wake Forest · Chain-mover
2,176 yards, 18 TD, 1 INT so far. Both protect the ball and hit big plays.

Compared with the 158 FBS starters this season for throws and running, and with 219 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.

This week

RecordNorthwestern is 6-2.
Fans after Oregon
Chiles has such absurd downfield awareness, I just still can’t believe he is OUR qb
Northwestern fan

What’s being said

5 stories this week, from 3 outlets.

Stories per day. W and L: the team’s results.

Video: Kirk Ferentz on Northwestern's Chip Kelly, Aidan Chiles

Hawk Central Nov 3

All 75 stories this season

Worth knowing

Aidan Chiles has rushed for a touchdown in every game this season (8 of 8).
Aidan Chiles has 1 interception in 202 throws, the 9th-fewest among FBS quarterbacks.

His most important play this season

Q4, 7:24 · Northwestern down 8, ties itAidan Chiles runs 1 yard for a touchdownNorthwestern at Michigan State, week 7Q4, 7:24 · Northwestern 21, Michigan State 21▲24%Northwestern’s chance to win, 26% to 50%▲24%Northwestern’s chance to win, 26% to 50%A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 touchdown A.Honig pass attempt SuccessfulWatch from this playBig Ten Football

All 14 of his plays on video

Aidan Chiles

QB · Northwestern

Filling the Shoesas of Nov 4

Aidan Chiles takes over from Preston Stone at Northwestern.

1,898passing yards13passing TD274rushing yards

Passing value per play

+0.53

our model · 2026 · 160 plays

Fans price the perception around the 68th percentile; the tape produces at the 92nd — so where is the credit?

Read the story so far

Aidan Chiles arrived as a 4-star prospect, the No.153 recruit nationally. Aidan Chiles lines up at QB for Northwestern.

On the field, the headline is 1,898 pass yds, with 13 pass td.

Aidan Chiles inherited the QB job from Preston Stone (4-star).

The number to watch: +0.53 — passing value per play.

QB successionleap of faith

Inherited fromPreston Stone 4★

AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-11-04

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2026	Northwestern	139	202	68.8%	1,898	9.4	13	1	168.0	71
2025	Michigan State	128	203	63.1%	1,392	6.9	10	3	134.0	39
2024	Michigan State	192	324	59.3%	2,415	7.5	13	12	127.7	59
2023	Oregon State	24	35	68.6%	309	8.8	4	0	180.4	--
Career		483	764	63.2%	6,014	7.9	40	16	142.4	57

Season	Team
2026	Northwestern	86	274	3.2	10	37
2025	Michigan State	81	227	2.8	6	64
2024	Michigan State	96	234	2.4	3	26
2023	Oregon State	17	79	4.6	3	23
Career		280	814	2.9	22	64

Last game (Wk 9): 281 passing yards, 1 passing TD.

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2026 season · 8 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	Grade	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	SK	RUSH	Note
Wk 1	W 34-18vs South Dakota State	Solid	14/24	273	1	0	11.4	—	2	18
Wk 3	W 41-7vs Colorado	Great	17/22	241	3	0	11.0	84.1	1	2	3 TD passes
Wk 4	L 23-29@ No. 5 Indiana	Great	22/29	293	2	0	10.1	89.1	2	0	Season-high 293 yds
Wk 5	W 34-13vs Penn State	Solid	10/14	93	0	0	6.6	84.3	1	21
Wk 6	W 45-14vs Ball State	Great	17/23	272	3	0	11.8	56.5	1	32	3 TD passes
Wk 7	W 24-21@ Michigan State	Shaky	18/27	226	0	0	8.4	55.0	5	25
Wk 8	W 42-14vs Rutgers	Solid	19/25	219	3	1	8.8	84.1	1	83	3 TD passes
Wk 9	L 26-34@ Oregon	Solid	22/38	281	1	0	7.4	93.9	3	93
Total			139/202	1898	13	1	9.4	—	16	274

The latest game

Oct. 31 · L 26-34 at Oregon, play by play

22 of 38 for 281 yards and a touchdown. He was 8 of 18 on third and fourth down.

6 of 11 of his drives scored
8 of 18 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked 3 times
11 runs for 107 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
FG3 of 5, 35 yds1
TD1 of 1, 64 yds2
FG6 of 7, 53 yds
Second quarterbegan up 10-3
TD6 of 8, 60 yds3
Punt1 of 2, 2 yds
Third quarterbegan up 20-13
FG1 of 2, 2 yds
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds
Punt1 of 2, 6 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 23-20
FG1 of 3, 36 yds4
Missed FG2 of 5, 23 yds
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
FinalL 26-34

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
15-yard run on 3rd and 8. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
2
64-yard touchdown pass to Griffin Wilde. First quarter, made it 10-0.
3
4-yard completion to Caleb Komolafe. Second quarter, up 13-6. Fans named him again and again right after.
“sure Jeremiah smith is incredible, but I’m not sure there is a player in all of college football who has elevated his team more than Aidan Chiles”Northwestern fan, r/CFB game thread
4
36-yard completion to Griffin Wilde. Fourth quarter, down 27-23. Fans named him again and again right after: the most-talked-about moment of his game.
“chiles carrying this team”Oregon fan, r/CFB game thread

The season, game by game

L 26-34 at OregonOct. 31281 yds22 of 38, 1 TDPlay by play just above

W 42-14 vs RutgersOct. 24219 yds19 of 25, 3 TD, 1 INT

Play by playOn the field

19 of 25 for 219 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. Northwestern scored touchdowns on 6 of the 10 drives he played.

6 of 10 of his drives scored
7 of 10 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
11 runs for 92 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
TD3 of 4, 29 yds12
TD1 of 1, 16 yds
TD1 of 1, 8 yds
Second quarterbegan up 21-3
Missed FG1 of 2, 26 yds
Punt2 of 3, 34 yds
TD2 of 2, 32 yds
Third quarterbegan up 28-6
Punt2 of 2, 21 yds
Int2 of 4, 8 yds3
TD4 of 5, 31 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 28-14
TD1 of 1, 14 yds4
FinalW 42-14

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
6-yard completion to Griffin Wilde on 3rd and 4. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
2
10-yard completion to Griffin Wilde on 3rd and 1. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
3
Intercepted on 3rd and 10. Third quarter, up 28-6. Picked off by Rutgers’s DK Gilley.
4
37-yard touchdown run. Fourth quarter, made it 42-14.

10203040503237

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

6 more games, with the play by play

W 24-21 at Michigan StateOct. 17226 yds18 of 27Box score only

18 of 27 for 226 yards.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

W 45-14 vs Ball StateOct. 10272 yds17 of 23, 3 TDBox score only

17 of 23 for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

W 34-13 vs Penn StateOct. 293 yds10 of 14

Play by playOn the field

10 of 14 for 93 yards. He was 3 of 7 on third and fourth down.

5 of 8 of his drives scored
3 of 7 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
5 runs for 30 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
FG3 of 4, 15 yds1
TD2 of 2, 20 yds2
Second quarterbegan up 10-0
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
TD1 of 1, 1 yds
Punt1 of 1, 5 yds
Third quarterbegan up 24-7
Downs2 of 3, 21 yds3
TD1 of 2, 31 yds4
Fourth quarterbegan up 31-7
FG—
FinalW 34-13

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
Sacked for a 9-yard loss on 3rd and 6. First quarter, tied 0-0.
2
6-yard completion to Ricky Ahumaraeze on 3rd and 3. First quarter, up 3-0. Converted.
3
Incomplete to Robby Preckel on 4th and 1. Third quarter, up 24-7. Turnover on downs. Broken up by Penn State’s K. Ebel.
4
31-yard completion to Griffin Wilde. Third quarter, up 24-7.

102030405031

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

L 23-29 at IndianaSept. 25293 yds22 of 29, 2 TDBox score only

22 of 29 for 293 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

W 41-7 vs ColoradoSept. 19241 yds17 of 22, 3 TD

Play by playOn the field

17 of 22 for 241 yards and 3 touchdowns. He was 6 of 9 on third and fourth down.

6 of 10 of his drives scored
6 of 9 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
8 runs for 11 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Punt1 of 2, 4 yds1
Punt3 of 3, 30 yds
TD—2
Second quarterbegan up 7-0
Punt—3
TD1 of 1, 18 yds
TD3 of 4, 53 yds
Third quarterbegan up 21-0
Fumble1 of 1, 11 yds
TD2 of 3, 49 yds
TD4 of 4, 47 yds4
FG2 of 4, 29 yds
FinalW 41-7

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
Incomplete to Luke Dehnicke on 3rd and 3. First quarter, tied 0-0.
2
1-yard run on 3rd and 1. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
3
2-yard run on 3rd and 6. Second quarter, up 7-0.
4
32-yard completion to Griffin Wilde. Third quarter, up 28-7.

102030405032

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

W 34-18 vs South Dakota StateSept. 5273 yds14 of 24, 1 TD

Play by playOn the field

14 of 24 for 273 yards and a touchdown. He was 5 of 12 on third and fourth down.

5 of 10 of his drives scored
5 of 12 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked twice
6 runs for 29 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
TD2 of 2, 82 yds1
Punt1 of 2, 4 yds2
Punt1 of 2, 17 yds34
Second quarterbegan up 7-0
FG2 of 3, 39 yds
Punt1 of 2, 8 yds
Punt1 of 3, 12 yds
Third quarterbegan up 10-6
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
TD2 of 2, 57 yds
FG2 of 3, 21 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 17-12
TD2 of 4, 33 yds
FinalW 34-18

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
71-yard completion to Griffin Wilde. First quarter, tied 0-0.
2
3-yard run on 3rd and 12. First quarter, up 7-0.
3
17-yard completion to Griffin Wilde on 3rd and 10. First quarter, up 7-0. Converted.
4
Incomplete to Drew Wagner on 3rd and 18. First quarter, up 7-0. Broken up by South Dakota State’s N. St-Juste.

10203040503571

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

Highs and lows

Only games with 20 or more plays count for best and lowest.
Best by our grade	at Indiana	L 23-29 · Graded great · 293 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · Rush 13 for 0, 1 TD · Sacked 2
Lowest by our grade	at Michigan State	W 24-21 · Graded shaky · Passing grade only · Slow start, strong finish · 226 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · Rush 16 for 25, 1 TD · Sacked 5
Biggest game	at Indiana	No. 5 at kickoff · L 23-29 · Graded great · 293 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · Rush 13 for 0, 1 TD · Sacked 2
Best play	at Michigan State	Completion for 1 yards, touchdown, Q4 7:24 · Win chance 26% to 50%

Where he ranks

6th among FBS quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns. Tied for 2nd among Big Ten quarterbacks in yards an attempt.

Stat	His	Nation	Big Ten
Passing yards	1,898	30th of 370	4th of 50
Yards an attempt	9.4	T-11th of 152	T-2nd of 22
Touchdown passes	13	T-40th of 370	T-5th of 50
Passer rating	168.0	17th of 152	3rd of 22
Completion percentage	68.8	22nd of 152	3rd of 22
Rushing yards	274	35th of 370	3rd of 50
Rushing touchdowns	10	6th of 370	1st of 50

Counting stats rank all FBS quarterbacks with a pass attempt; the rates rank those with at least 10 attempts a game.

All Big Ten quarterbacks

Rk	Quarterback	Yards	TD	INT	Att	Y/A
1	Jayden Maiava	2,525	20	5	296	8.5
2	Julian Sayin	2,007	19	4	192	10.5
3	Ryan Browne	1,964	11	5	250	7.9
4	Aidan Chiles	1,898	13	1	202	9.4
5	Josh Hoover	1,860	19	2	206	9.0
6	Rocco Becht	1,839	13	5	234	7.9
7	Anthony Colandrea	1,824	15	7	263	6.9
8	Malik Washington	1,805	9	7	289	6.2
9	Katin Houser	1,663	13	5	216	7.7
10	Drake Lindsey	1,592	10	6	259	6.1
11	Demond Williams Jr.	1,495	9	3	187	8.0
12	Colton Joseph	1,346	11	5	187	7.2
13	Alessio Milivojevic	1,263	7	3	185	6.8
14	Hank Brown	1,190	8	3	169	7.0
15	Dylan Raiola	1,097	9	2	145	7.6
16	Dylan Lonergan	1,066	10	6	127	8.4
17	Nico Iamaleava	982	4	4	116	8.5
18	Dante Moore	926	9	0	99	9.4
19	Bryce Underwood	924	5	6	124	7.5
20	Elijah Brown	714	7	3	99	7.2
21	Ty Dieffenbach	683	3	1	100	6.8
22	AJ Surace	662	7	5	83	8.0
23	Tommy Carr	503	2	1	68	7.4
24	Jeremy Hecklinski	472	4	2	67	7.0
25	Luke Fahey	463	3	2	51	9.1
26	Grant Wilson	230	3	0	22	10.5
27	Brock Thomas	228	1	1	40	5.7
28	Michael Clayton II	172	4	0	26	6.6
29	Jonas Williams	126	0	1	14	9.0
30	Alex Manske	102	0	0	14	7.3
31	Evans Chuba	96	1	0	14	6.9
32	Ryan Hopkins	93	0	1	13	7.2
33	TJ Lateef	82	1	0	11	7.5
34	Leo Hannan	67	0	1	15	4.5
35	Cardell Williams	63	1	0	7	9.0
36	Cam Fancher	59	0	1	11	5.4
37	Tavien St. Clair	52	1	1	7	7.4
38	Max Shikenjanski	50	0	0	3	16.7
39	Sean Ashenfelder	50	0	1	10	5.0
40	Kayd Coffman	42	1	1	10	4.2
41	Jack Capaldi	35	0	0	2	17.5
42	Brady Palmer	34	0	0	6	5.7
43	Akili Smith Jr.	31	0	0	4	7.8
44	Jimmy Sullivan	13	0	0	4	3.2
45	Tyler Cherry	10	0	0	3	3.3
46	Connor Barry	8	0	0	2	4.0
47	Carson Boyd	5	0	0	1	5.0
48	Madden Iamaleava	0	0	0	1	0.0
49	Nicco Marchiol	0	0	0	1	0.0
50	Daniel Kaelin	-1	0	0	2	-0.5

Sorted by passing yards. Gray: under 10 attempts a game, so not ranked on yards an attempt.

Passing yards1,8984th in the Big Ten this season; 35th among current FBS players over the whole career (6,014).

Touchdown passes13tied for 5th in the Big Ten this season; tied for 39th among current FBS players over the whole career (40).

Conference ranks count every player in the conference with a row in that stat, any position. Career ranks count current FBS players, from the games in our log.

Opponents faced, by strength

Ratings of the games shown run from -20 to +24 points against an average team (SP+ rating of each opponent).

Pass targets

Wilde and Wagner saw 98 of the 203 charted throws.

Receiver	Targets	Catches	Yards	Throw depth	After catch
Griffin Wilde	56	43	753	12.6	5.1
Drew Wagner	42	30	261	5.5	3.9
Alex Honig	21	15	229	9.0	6.5
Caleb Komolafe	19	15	162	0.4	11.2
Luke Dehnicke	17	14	251	11.6	6.0
7 others	44	21	234	9.6	3.7
No receiver charted	4	The interception is among these

Play by play: 203 passes, 138 caught, 1,890 yards; the box score counts 202 attempts. Throw depth: average air yards per target. After catch: average yards after the catch per catch. Bar: targets; the blue part was caught.

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

139/202 (68.8%) · 13 TD · 1 INT

All 202 box-score attempts covered (play-by-play lists 203 passing plays)

200 of 203 attempts charted for true throw depth

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 203 passing plays (138 completions) against the box score's 202 attempts (139 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

9.2223 of 185 QBs

Sack rate

7.3%141 of 185 QBs

Sacked on 7.3% of dropbacks (141 of 185) — and still 23 of 185 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

12% of attempts (23)

83%comp

Air -2.4 · YAC 11.1 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

50% of attempts (99)

69%comp1 INT

Air 4.2 · YAC 4.9 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

28% of attempts (57)

65%comp

Air 14.0 · YAC 2.9 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

10% of attempts (21)

62%comp

Air 28.1 · YAC 8.2 avg

Overall 68.8% completion on 202 attempts · 62% completion on 21 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2026 baseline

No situation moves him more than 66 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-22 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/115 (4.3%) · league sack rate 4.5%

Down 2

+66 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/43 (9.3%) · league sack rate 5.0%

Down 3+

-6 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 7/58 (12.1%) · league sack rate 8.3%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

2023Oregon State8-5HC: Jonathan Smith · Run-leaning

2024Michigan State5-7HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced, slow tempo

2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced

2026Northwestern6-2HC: David Braun · Run-leaning

Our ratings

CFB Zeitgeist Score 77 (#12 of 145). Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

77All-Conference level #12 of 145?

13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: epa / dropback (95th percentile). Strength: interception rate (95th percentile). Concern: sack rate (23rd percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

EPA / dropback#9 / 157 · 95th pct

0.43

Interception rate#9 / 157 · 95th pct

0.5%

Success rate#10 / 157 · 94th pct

52.1%

Explosive rate#21 / 157 · 86th pct

14.3%

Sack rate#122 / 157 · 23rd pct

7.3%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush TDs#4 / 159 · 98th pct

Interceptions#5 / 159 · 93rd pct

Yards / att#11 / 159 · 93rd pct

9.4

Fumbles lost#1 / 142 · 92nd pct

Completion %#23 / 159 · 86th pct

68.8%

Rush yards#30 / 159 · 81st pct

274

Pass yards#31 / 159 · 81st pct

1898

Pass TDs#41 / 159 · 71st pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

75th → 95th percentile

Success rate

47th → 94th percentile

Explosive rate

33rd → 86th percentile

Sack rate

28th → 23rd percentile

Interception rate

78th → 95th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

After 215 dropbacks

71Zeitgeist Passer Rating16th of 119 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 168.0 15th of 119 FBS QBs

Positive-play rate weight 24%

53.2%90th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · -0.7% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

9.1392nd pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · -0.2 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

8.0%15th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · +0.5% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (4 of 219 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2026 season · 8 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home5g	220	2.0	9.9	0.2
Road3g	267	1.0	8.6	0.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	233	1.5	9.9	0.0
Weeks 8+2g	250	2.0	8.1	0.5

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

David Braun

Pass share

40.2%

204 pass / 303 run

Plays / game

63.4

8 games

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Northwestern’s two quarterbacks

Aidan Chiles	Threw in all 8 games · 139 of 202, 1,898 yds, 13 TD, 1 INT · 9.4 yards an attempt on 202 attempts · ran for 274 yds, 10 TD
Nicco Marchiol	Threw in 1 of 8 games · 0 of 1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 0.0 yards an attempt on 1 attempt · ran for 22 yds, 0 TD

Box score. Every quarterback on the team who has thrown a pass this season.

Awards

Player standing · 2026

In the Heisman race (#8 in our model)

Our Heisman model ranks this player #8 right now. Heisman finalists are named in December.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score

77 · #12 of 145 QBs

Former four-star. Now #12 at the position.

Heisman trajectory

Our Heisman model · 2026 · week 10

#8

Weeks outside our model's top 25 sit on the baseline.

Peak #7 · week 6

Avg #12.9

Finalist chance 22%

Peaked at #7 in week 6; #8 as of week 10.

Aidan Chiles

Style of play

This week

What’s being said

Worth knowing

His most important play this season

In the news this week

In the news this season

What they’re talking about

Week by week

What was said at each stop

In the news across his career

What fans said

Latest stories

In the game threads

Where to follow

Career stats

Game log

The latest game

The season, game by game

Highs and lows

Where he ranks

Pass targets

Passing profile

Situational

Teams and coaches

Our ratings

Splits

Northwestern’s two quarterbacks

Awards

In the Heisman race (#8 in our model)

Heisman trajectory

#8

Four seasons, three schools

Moves

2023 9 games

2024 12 games

2025 8 games

2026 8 games