Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 71-3vs Nicholls | 15/21 | 199 | 3 | 0 | 9.5 | — | Season-high 199 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 34-7vs Washington State | 22/34 | 192 | 3 | 2 | 5.6 | 50.9 | 3 TD passes |
| Total | 37/55 | 391 | 6 | 2 | 7.5 | 50.9 |
#2
Avery Johnson
Avery Johnson survived a 6-6 disappointment in 2025, then chose to come back and fix it. His new head coach is Collin Klein — the man who recruited him to Manhattan — and their reunion sets up exactly the kind of senior-year redemption arc that award voters notice.
6′3″ · 200 lb · Wichita, KS · Maize
CFB Index 53 · #56 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceWatch-list name (model)Returning to Kansas State for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
391
passing yards · 2026
6 TD · 2 INT · 7.1 per attempt
2 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 13 car · 90 yds · 5 TD -- top 0.1% rushing TDs game. -- Best game: 199 pass yds, 3 TD, 23 rush yds, vs Nicholls
The play that turned itSwung Baylor from 16% to 61% to win.Kansas State at Baylor · 35-34
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Avery Johnson survived a 6-6 disappointment in 2025, then chose to come back and fix it. His new head coach is Collin Klein — the man who recruited him to Manhattan — and their reunion sets up exactly the kind of senior-year redemption arc that award voters notice.
- Signed as a 4-star recruit to Kansas State in 2023.
Aura™ · Him Watch
Aura tax
+27aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 86th percentile of QBs; the tape says
60th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=256
— more hype than the tape.Aura — fan perception86th pctl
Production — on-field60th pctl
n=256 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = our passing-value metric (wEPA)
Buzz vs Tape
Fans warmer than rivals
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
22.2own fans
-13.6rival fans
Also worth knowing:
In Their Words
164 windows · 2026 fan posts
avery×2734.8kansas×43.0rushing×19.1offense×8.2
“Klein had his QB, Avery Johnson. Klein should've never left K-State, and AJ wouldn't have regressed under Wells”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
The story
Johnson's dual-threat profile is already elite on the ground. Our play-by-play clocks him at the 89th percentile in sack avoidance, the 89th percentile in run success rate, and the 89th percentile in explosive run rate — the full trifecta that tells you he's dangerous with his legs in every sense: elusive in the pocket, decisive at the line, and capable of taking the top off a defense on a read-keep. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry on designed runs (72nd percentile), which isn't accident football. That's a quarterback who plays with patience and then punishes hesitation.
The honest part of the 2025 ledger is that the passing numbers didn't match. His success rate through the air (44th percentile) and explosive pass rate (31st percentile) lagged well behind a program with Big 12 championship ambitions. The 6-6 season wasn't all on him — K-State's supporting cast thinned — but it raised the central question for 2026: can a quarterback who is genuinely elite with his legs become a complete enough passer to make defenses defend the whole field?
Under Klein, who ran this same read-option system as a player and helped design the offense that made Johnson a prospect, the answer is plausibly yes. Johnson enters 2026 already sixth on K-State's all-time passing yardage list with a chance to shatter multiple program records. The Maxwell Trophy is within range if the passing efficiency catches up to the rushing brilliance. That is the entire 2026 season, compressed into one sentence.
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
Johnson is a runner who happens to throw — and on designed carries, that combination is borderline unguardable. The defining cluster is his 89th-percentile sack avoidance, 89th-percentile run success rate, and 89th-percentile explosive run rate: he keeps the pocket clean, converts the first down when he pulls it, and occasionally breaks one for 58 yards (his long in 2025). His 72nd-percentile YPC (7.7 yards per carry) confirms this isn't volume padding. Through the air, the picture is more complicated — 38th-percentile pass success rate, 44th-percentile explosive pass rate — pointing to a quarterback whose arm is an asset but whose eyes and timing still have room to grow. In 2026, the gap between his rushing ceiling and his passing floor is the whole story.
Written by our staff.
20238 games
- Signed with Kansas State4-star out of Maize
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Kansas State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
2 coaches2023–2025
Kansas State
2026era →
Collin Klein
Kansas State
Coaching transition mid-career: Chris Klieman → Collin Klein. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
2026 snapshot
Season context · Team result + system
2023Kansas State9-4HC: Chris Klieman · Run-leaning
2024Kansas State9-4HC: Chris Klieman · Run-leaning
2025Kansas State6-6HC: Chris Klieman · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2026Kansas State2-0HC: Collin Klein · Run-leaning
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidence
Elite: rush yards (85th percentile). Strength: pass tds (81st percentile). Concern: pass yards (0th percentile).
Box-score rates (7)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Passing profile
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
54 of 55 attempts matched to play-by-play
53 of 54 attempts charted for true throw depth
Adjusted ANY/A
7.6530 of 75 QBsSack rate
0.0%1 of 75 QBsRarely sacked (1 of 75 QBs) and still 30 of 75 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
21% of attempts (11)
100%comp
Air -3.0 · YAC 11.2 avg
Short · 0–9 air yds
38% of attempts (20)
80%comp1 INT
Air 4.6 · YAC 2.9 avg
Middle · 10–19 air yds
25% of attempts (13)
62%comp
Air 12.3 · YAC 5.0 avg
Deep · 20+ air yds
17% of attempts (9)
11%comp
Air 31.8 · YAC 16.0 avg
Overall 68.5% completion on 54 attempts · 11% completion on 9 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Splits & context
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 196 YDS/g, 3.0 TD/g, 7.5 YPA, 1.0 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Collin Klein
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
Watch-list name (model)
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
Recognition
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
2026 outlook
In the mix for All-Big 12
Based on 2025: #10 of 17 Big 12 QBs
How the All-Big 12 estimate is computed
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Career stats
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Kansas State | 37 | 55 | 67.3% | 391 | 7.1 | 6 | 2 | 155.7 | 55 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Kansas State | 204 | 341 | 59.8% | 2,380 | 7.0 | 18 | 6 | 132.4 | 43 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Kansas State | 217 | 372 | 58.3% | 2,712 | 7.3 | 25 | 10 | 136.4 | 44 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Kansas State | 37 | 66 | 56.1% | 479 | 7.3 | 5 | 0 | 142.0 | 48 | -- | -- |
| Career | 495 | 834 | 59.4% | 5,962 | 7.1 | 54 | 18 | 136.5 | 44 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Kansas State | 12 | 101 | 8.4 | 1 | -- |
| 2025 | Kansas State | 109 | 477 | 4.4 | 8 | -- |
| 2024 | Kansas State | 113 | 605 | 5.4 | 7 | -- |
| 2023 | Kansas State | 51 | 288 | 5.6 | 7 | -- |
| Career | 285 | 1,471 | 5.2 | 23 | -- |
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 71–3
vs Nicholls
199 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · 23 rush yds (4 car) · 1 TD
Dominant 68-point win at home against Nicholls.
With B. White — 7 rush yds (1 car) · S. McClannan — 48 AVG · 1 IN 20 · 54 LONG
Signature plays
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
- Week 2 · Washington State · 3&8 · Q2 · EPA +3.41(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush middle for 22 yards gain to the WSU40 (#84 M.Wrice), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Nicholls · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.35(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short left to #4 J.Jackson caught at NICH32, for 43 yards to the NICH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:58, 1ST DOWN #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)
- Week 2 · Washington State · 2&11 · Q2 · EPA +3.08(01:58) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #4 J.Jackson caught at WSU18, for 21 yards to the WSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:51, 1ST DOWN #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)
- Week 2 · Washington State · 3&9 · Q2 · EPA +3.06(14:59) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #4 J.Jackson caught at KSTATE32, for 15 yards to the WSU47 (#2 J.Smith), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Washington State · 3&6 · Q2 · EPA +2.82Josh Manning 6 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
- Week 1 · Nicholls · 2&7 · Q1 · EPA +2.61(12:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #12 J.Tibbs caught at NICH00, for 7 yards to the NICH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:36 #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)
- Week 1 · Nicholls · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +2.52(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short left to #5 J.Manning caught at NICH00, for 11 yards to the NICH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:28, 1ST DOWN #37 R.Hammond III kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)
- Week 2 · Washington State · 3&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.51(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush left for 10 yards gain to the WSU34, out of bounds at WSU34, 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Nicholls · 2&5 · Q1 · EPA +2.48(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush left for 10 yards gain to the NICH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:59, 1ST DOWN #0 L.Cure rush attempt Successful
- Week 2 · Washington State · 3&6 · Q1 · EPA +2.44(11:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #5 J.Manning caught at KSTATE49, for 10 yards to the WSU44 (#3 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWN
Game log
How he plays
Play style
Johnson is a runner who happens to throw — and on designed carries, that combination is borderline unguardable. The defining cluster is his 89th-percentile sack avoidance, 89th-percentile run success rate, and 89th-percentile explosive run rate: he keeps the pocket clean, converts the first down when he pulls it, and occasionally breaks one for 58 yards (his long in 2025). His 72nd-percentile YPC (7.7 yards per carry) confirms this isn't volume padding. Through the air, the picture is more complicated — 38th-percentile pass success rate, 44th-percentile explosive pass rate — pointing to a quarterback whose arm is an asset but whose eyes and timing still have room to grow. In 2026, the gap between his rushing ceiling and his passing floor is the whole story.
Our classifier reads him the same way: extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
2026 Outlook
Kansas State
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Kansas State · editorial
Returning around him
- 71% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- 2 Kansas State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -6 net (27 in / 33 out)
2026 Award watch
- Davey O'Brien
- Heisman Watch
- Maxwell Watch
Kansas State · Last season: 6-6 (AP #17) · Talent rank #47 · 2026 recruiting class #50
DNA match
Player DNA
Scrambler
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Hudson Card’s 2023 season.
Matches Hudson on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Completion %
Differs from Hudson on
Rush yards / carry (higher)
Weight (lower)
TD rate (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Ben Wooldridge’s path through Louisiana.
94%match
All-Sun Belt
Matches Ben on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Sam Leavitt's junior season at Arizona State (2025).
68%match
All-Big 12
Matches Sam on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
TD rate
Height
Differs from Sam on
Class year (higher)
Weight (lower)
Player DNA
Players who play like Avery Johnson
Heisman trajectory
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peak #16
Peaked at #16 this season.
Background
CAREER HONORS • 2025 Maxwell Award watch list • 2025 Davey O'Brien Award watch list • 2024 Davey O’Brien Award Great 8 List (Arizona, Oklahoma State) • 2024 Manning Award Star of the Week (Oklahoma State) • 2024 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week (Oklahoma State) • 2024 Maxwell Award watch list...
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology