Dylan Raiola

Dylan Raiola left a starting job and Nebraska's throne for a better shot at Oregon. Then the Ducks' NFL-bound starter shocked everyone and came back -- and now football's most famous transfer is redshirting.

QB · Oregon · Jr. · #8

6′3″ · 230 lb · Buford, GA · Buford HS

CFB Index 41 · #90 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceTransferred Nebraska → Oregon for 2026

via goducks.com ↗

Next upFri Sep 18 · 10:30 pm ETvs Portland StateAutzen Stadium

How he plays

Operates within the system without forcing anything.

Success rate: 94th percentile.

The full scouting read

The numbers

2,000

passing yards · 2025

18 TD · 6 INT · 8 per attempt

The play that turned itSwung Nebraska from 8% to 52% to win.Michigan at Nebraska · 30-27

His career numbers, season by season

The story

Signed as a 5-star recruit to Nebraska in 2024.
Transferred from Nebraska to Oregon in 2026.

The full story, with sources

The story

Read that again: the highest-ranked recruit Nebraska ever signed -- son of a 14-year NFL center, the face of Matt Rhule's rebuild -- walked away from 22 career starts and won't take a meaningful snap in 2026. The exits weren't only his: his uncle was let go from Nebraska's staff and his brother decommitted, so the family's Lincoln chapter closed all at once.

What he's really betting on is 2027. Dante Moore's surprise return turned the Oregon move into the same apprenticeship Moore once served behind Dillon Gabriel -- a year to learn the system before the keys are his. Before the broken leg ended his Nebraska season, Raiola was completing 72%. The arm was never the question. The question is patience: whether a five-star raised to be The Guy can spend a year as the understudy -- and whether the gamble reads as brilliant or premature when 2027 finally comes.

SOURCES

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2 seasons under Matt Rhule — 14-12 over that span.

2024Nebraska7-6HC: Matt Rhule · Balanced

2025Nebraska7-6HC: Matt Rhule · Run-leaning

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

41Rotational starter #90 of 146?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: success rate (94th percentile). Strength: completion % (99th percentile). Concern: sack rate (10th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#11 / 183 · 94th pct

48.4%

Explosive rate#48 / 183 · 74th pct

10.4%

EPA / dropback#52 / 183 · 72nd pct

0.27

Interception rate#105 / 183 · 43rd pct

2.4%

Sack rate#164 / 183 · 10th pct

9.1%

Box-score rates (8)

Completion %#2 / 183 · 99th pct

72.4%

Yards / att#38 / 183 · 78th pct

8.0

Pass TDs#49 / 183 · 72nd pct

Interceptions#70 / 183 · 56th pct

Pass yards#91 / 183 · 51st pct

2000

Fumbles lost#87 / 174 · 38th pct

Rush TDs#150 / 183 · 9th pct

Rush yards#178 / 183 · 3rd pct

-87

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

30th → 72nd percentile

Success rate

49th → 94th percentile

Explosive rate

40th → 74th percentile

Sack rate

57th → 10th percentile

Interception rate

77th → 43rd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

179/250 (71.6%) · 18 TD · 6 INT

250 of 250 attempts matched to play-by-play

36 of 250 attempts charted for true throw depth

Adjusted ANY/A

6.9767 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

9.1%186 of 206 QBs

Sacked on 9.1% of dropbacks (186 of 206) — and still 67 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

11% of attempts (4)

100%comp

Air -2.5 · YAC 5.8 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

56% of attempts (20)

90%comp1 INT

Air 4.5 · YAC 3.9 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

19% of attempts (7)

43%comp

Air 15.1 · YAC 3.3 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

14% of attempts (5)

0%comp

Air 27.6 avg

Overall 71.6% completion on 250 attempts · 56% of attempts thrown 0–9 air yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 57 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-16 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/105 (4.8%) · league sack rate 4.2% · ~our read

Down 2

-19 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 10/90 (11.1%) · league sack rate 4.5% · ~our read

Down 3+

+57 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 9/60 (15.0%) · league sack rate 7.8% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 9 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home6g	220	2.0	8.4	0.5
Road3g	227	2.0	7.3	1.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	265	2.7	8.8	0.8
Weeks 8+3g	136	0.7	6.5	0.3

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Dan Lanning

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Part-time starter

Splitting first-team reps — starts some weeks, rotates others.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

41 · #90 of 146 QBs

Former five-star. Now #90 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Nebraska	181	250	72.4%	2,000	8.0	18	6	158.6	55	--	--
2024	Nebraska	274	409	67.0%	2,806	6.9	13	11	129.7	40	--	--
Career		455	659	69.0%	4,806	7.3	31	17	140.7	46	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Nebraska	46	-87	-1.9	--
2024	Nebraska	50	-65	-1.3	--
Career		96	-152	-1.6	--

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 7 · Maryland · 2&7 · Q3 · EPA -10.19Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Dontay Joyner return for 67 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
Week 4 · Michigan · 4&11 · Q2 · EPA +6.83Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 52 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
Week 7 · Maryland · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +5.15Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 64 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
Week 6 · Michigan State · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +4.66Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 59 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
Week 6 · Michigan State · 3&10 · Q3 · EPA +4.31Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 45 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Michigan · 4&2 · Q1 · EPA -4.07Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 1 yd to the MICH 5
Week 4 · Michigan · 3&8 · Q2 · EPA +3.65Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
Week 2 · Akron · 3&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.59Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 38 yds to the AKR 14 for a 1ST down
Week 2 · Akron · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +3.54Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 36 yds to the AKR 31 for a 1ST down
Week 7 · Maryland · 2&5 · Q2 · EPA -3.26Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Jamare Glasker return for 6 yds to the MD 29

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 9 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 20-17@ Cincinnati	33/42	243	2	0	5.8	77.8
Wk 2	W 68-0vs Akron	24/31	364	4	0	11.7	92.1	Season-high 364 yds
Wk 3	W 59-7vs Houston Christian	15/21	222	2	0	10.6	80.1
Wk 4	L 27-30vs Michigan	30/41	308	3	1	7.5	64.6	3 TD passes
Wk 6	W 38-27vs Michigan State	16/24	194	1	1	8.1	18.9
Wk 7	W 34-31@ Maryland	20/29	260	4	3	9.0	79.3	4 TD passes · 3 INTs — rough day
Wk 8	L 6-24@ Minnesota	17/25	177	0	0	7.1	39.4
Wk 9	W 28-21vs Northwestern	16/22	141	1	1	6.4	54.5
Wk 10	L 17-21vs USC	10/15	91	1	0	6.1	82.4
Total		181/250	2000	18	6	8.0	65.5

How he plays

Play style

Raiola looks the part to an almost cartoonish degree -- a broad, NFL-built frame, a compact over-the-top release, the pre-snap command that drew Patrick Mahomes comparisons before a college snap. The tape, what there is of it, backs the projection: 86th-percentile accuracy and an 18-to-6 touchdown-to-interception line before a broken leg ended his Nebraska season at nine games. The honest tell is the sack rate -- bottom-ten percent -- he holds the ball hunting the throw, for better and worse, the habit a young quarterback either refines into patience or pays for. The catch for 2026 is that there won't be new tape: he's redshirting behind Dante Moore, developing in practice, not on Saturdays. This is a projection year, banking reps for the 2027 audition the whole bet is built around.

Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.

DNA match

Player DNA

Pocket Passer

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Joey Labas’s 2025 season.

Joey Labas

58%match

Central Michigan · 2025

Will Levis

Kentucky · 2022

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 2

58%

Ethan Grunkemeyer

Penn State · 2025

57%

Skylar John Thompson

Kansas State · 2021

56%

JT Daniels

Georgia · 2021

55%

Matches Joey on

Yards / attempt

Height

Differs from Joey on

Class year (lower)

Weight (higher)

Rush yards / carry (lower)

Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Aidan O'Connell’s path through Purdue.

Aidan O'Connell

88%match

Purdue · 2022

All-Big TenNFL Rd 4

Gunner Stockton

Georgia · 2025

70%

Eli Peters

Toledo · 2020

72%

Miller Moss

Louisville · 2025

70%

Ethan Garbers

UCLA · 2024

67%

Matches Aidan on

Height

Yards per attempt

Completion %

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to JT Daniels's sophomore season at Georgia (2021).

JT Daniels

54%match

Georgia · 2021

Skylar John Thompson

Kansas State · 2021

53%

Jake Bentley

South Alabama · 2021

49%

Alessio Milivojevic

Michigan State · 2025

47%

Spencer Rattler

Oklahoma · 2021

All-Big 12NFL Rd 5

47%

Matches JT on

Height

Differs from JT on

Class year (lower)

EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)

Rush usage (higher)

Player DNA

Players who play like Dylan Raiola

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

California · 2025

72%

Ethan Grunkemeyer

Penn State · 2025

57%

Heisman trajectory

Heisman Trajectory · 2026

Peak #125

Final rank

#651

Avg #435.3

Finalist prob 0%

Peaked at #125 this season.

Background

As A Sophomore at Nebraska (2025) » Academic All-Big Ten (2025) » Nebraska Scholar-Athlete Honor Roll (Spring 2025) » Tom Osborne Citizenship Team (2025) Started at quarterback in all nine games played for the Huskers, leading them to a 6-3 record before suffering a season ending injury... Comple...

via goducks.com ↗

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Dylan Raiola

Country hotter than the fans

The story

202413 games

2026

2025 snapshot

Passing profile

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Part-time starter

Career stats

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Pocket Passer

Players who play like Dylan Raiola

Heisman trajectory

Peak #125

Background