Joey Aguilar

Joey Aguilar packed up and started over at Tennessee, and the new tape already reads 3,565 pass YDS, 2,500-yd club.

QB · Tennessee · Sr. · #6

6′3″ · 225 lb · Antioch, CA

CFB Index 78 · #18 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceReturning to Tennessee for 2026

How he plays

Operates within the system without forcing anything.

EPA / dropback: 96th percentile.

The full scouting read

The numbers

3,565

passing yards · 2025

24 TD · 10 INT · 8.8 per attempt

Best game: 371 pass yds, 4 TD, 2 INT, vs Georgia

The play that turned itSwung Wyoming from 16% to 95% to win.App State at Wyoming · 22-19

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 quarterback for Tennessee. 2025: 3,565 passing yards, 24 TD, 10 INT.

Signed as a 3-star recruit to App State in 2023.
Transferred from UCLA to Tennessee in 2025.
Named Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year in 2023.

The full story, with sources

Joey Aguilar

QB · Tennessee · Sr · #6

On Trialas of 2026-09-15

Joey Aguilar arrives at Tennessee with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.

PASS YDS · 2,500-YD CLUB

3,565

3565 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.

Tennessee fans keep putting his case on trial, week to week.

high confidence15 sources

Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.

Read the story so far

Joey Aguilar arrived as a 3-star prospect, the No.129 recruit nationally. He lines up at QB for Tennessee.

Tennessee fans keep putting his case on trial, week to week.

The number to watch: 3,565 — pass yds · 2,500-yd club.

Why nowHe changed programs heading into 2026 — a fresh fit to prove out.

3565 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
compiled from tagged fan discourse

AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-09-15

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2023App State9-5HC: Shawn Clark · Balanced

2024App State5-6HC: Shawn Clark · Balanced

2025Tennessee8-5HC: Josh Heupel · Balanced

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

78All-Conference level #18 of 146?

High confidenceBounce-Back13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: epa / dropback (96th percentile). Strength: success rate (96th percentile). Concern: interceptions (14th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

EPA / dropback#8 / 183 · 96th pct

0.40

Success rate#8 / 183 · 96th pct

49.9%

Sack rate#57 / 183 · 69th pct

4.1%

Explosive rate#74 / 183 · 60th pct

9.7%

Interception rate#85 / 183 · 54th pct

2.0%

Box-score rates (8)

Pass yards#12 / 183 · 93rd pct

3565

Yards / att#15 / 183 · 92nd pct

8.8

Completion %#26 / 183 · 86th pct

67.3%

Pass TDs#24 / 183 · 85th pct

Rush TDs#67 / 183 · 59th pct

Rush yards#104 / 183 · 43rd pct

101

Fumbles lost#132 / 174 · 18th pct

Interceptions#153 / 183 · 14th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

61st → 96th percentile

Success rate

63rd → 96th percentile

Explosive rate

77th → 60th percentile

Sack rate

81st → 69th percentile

Interception rate

7th → 54th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

264/393 (67.2%) · 24 TD · 10 INT

393 of 404 attempts matched to play-by-play

158 of 393 attempts charted for true throw depth

Adjusted ANY/A

8.2320 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

4.0%75 of 206 QBs

Rarely sacked (75 of 206 QBs) and still 20 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

21% of attempts (33)

88%comp

Air -2.3 · YAC 9.2 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

43% of attempts (68)

76%comp1 INT

Air 4.1 · YAC 5.4 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

20% of attempts (32)

59%comp

Air 13.4 · YAC 2.3 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

16% of attempts (25)

40%comp3 INT

Air 33.7 · YAC 7.8 avg

Overall 67.2% completion on 393 attempts · 40% completion on 25 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 48 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-33 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 7/148 (4.7%) · league sack rate 4.2% · ~our read

Down 2

+7 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/128 (3.1%) · league sack rate 4.5% · ~our read

Down 3+

+48 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/85 (5.9%) · league sack rate 7.8% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home8g	280	2.2	8.9	0.9
Road5g	265	1.2	9.1	0.6

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	257	2.0	8.9	0.7
Weeks 8+6g	294	1.7	9.2	0.8

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Josh Heupel

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

78 · #18 of 146 QBs

Three-star recruit. Now #18 at the position.

2026 outlook

In the mix for All-SEC

Based on 2025: #5 of 16 SEC QBs

How the All-SEC estimate is computed

35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Tennessee	272	404	67.3%	3,565	8.8	24	10	156.1	82	--	--
2024	App State	218	390	55.9%	3,002	7.7	23	14	132.8	65	--	--
2023	App State	292	459	63.6%	3,754	8.2	33	10	151.7	71	--	--
Career		782	1,253	62.4%	10,321	8.2	80	34	147.2	73	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Tennessee	71	101	1.4	4	--
2024	App State	58	217	3.7	2	--
2023	App State	81	249	3.1	3	--
Career		210	567	2.7	9	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2025

W 72–17

vs East Tennessee State

288 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 74.4

Dominant 55-point win at home against East Tennessee State.

With J. Merklinger — 118 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 89.8 · 17 rush yds (2 car) · M. Matthews — 6 rec · 111 yds · 1 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 1 · Syracuse · 2&8 · Q2 · EPA +6.53Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 73 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Week 3 · Georgia · 2&7 · Q1 · EPA +6.37Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 72 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Week 10 · Oklahoma · 3&8 · Q3 · EPA +6.08Braylon Staley 54 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)
Week 3 · Georgia · 2&6 · Q3 · EPA +4.92Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 56 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Week 9 · Kentucky · 2&2 · Q3 · EPA +4.69(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep left to #4 M.Matthews caught at UK10, for 62 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:40, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
Week 14 · Vanderbilt · 2&6 · Q2 · EPA +4.53(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep middle to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at VANDY03, for 52 yards to the VANDY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:34, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady). #68 B.Warren injured on the play
Week 9 · Kentucky · 3&9 · Q3 · EPA +4.48(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep middle to #14 B.Staley caught at UK48, for 56 yards to the UK18 (#25 J.Lovett), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Week 2 · East Tennessee State · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.10Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 53 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Week 5 · Mississippi State · 3&6 · Q3 · EPA +3.97Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 24 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Deonte Anderson) to the MSST 32 for a 1ST down
Week 10 · Oklahoma · 3&5 · Q1 · EPA +3.87(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep right to #0 E.Davis caught at OKLA49, for 40 yards to the OKLA39 (#13 R.Powers III), 1ST DOWN

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 45-26vs Syracuse	16/28	247	3	0	8.8	62.3	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 72-17vs East Tennessee State	23/31	288	2	0	9.3	74.4	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 3	L 41-44vs Georgia	24/36	371	4	2	10.3	85.9	4 TD passes
Wk 4	W 56-24vs UAB	15/22	218	3	1	9.9	59.4	3 TD passes
Wk 5	W 41-34@ Mississippi State	24/40	335	1	2	8.4	67.7
Wk 7	W 34-31vs Arkansas	16/25	221	1	0	8.8	74.9
Wk 8	L 20-37@ Alabama	28/44	268	1	1	6.1	61.6
Wk 9	W 56-34@ Kentucky	20/26	396	3	0	15.2	95.3	Season-high 396 yds
Wk 10	L 27-33vs Oklahoma	29/45	393	3	2	8.7	74.3	3 TD passes
Wk 12	W 42-9vs New Mexico State	17/23	204	1	2	8.9	76.0
Wk 13	W 31-11@ Florida	17/22	204	1	0	9.3	94.9
Wk 14	L 24-45vs Vanderbilt	29/44	299	1	0	6.8	65.6
Bowl	L 28-30@ Illinois	14/18	121	0	0	6.7	64.4
Total		272/404	3565	24	10	9.0	73.6

How he plays

Play style

Operates within the system without forcing anything.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

60.9%Completion %

36.2%Conversion/dropback

39.3%Land short of sticks

0INTs

60.9% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 36.2% conversion-per-dropback — 39.3% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

5/49Inside-5 share

5 of the team's 49 inside-the-5 carries (10.2%).

2026 Outlook

Tennessee

Preseason read · May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Tennessee

Returning around him

35% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
5 Tennessee players drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: -8 net (21 in / 29 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Tennessee · Last season: 8-5 (AP #18) · Talent rank #13 · 2026 recruiting class #8

DNA match

Player DNA

Pocket Passer

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Carson Beck’s 2024 season.

Carson Beck

70%match

Georgia · 2024

NFL Rd 3 · Pk 1

Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh · 2021

1st-team All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 20

67%

Clayton Tune

Houston · 2021

NFL Rd 5

66%

Joey Aguilar

App State · 2023

All-Sun Belt

66%

Matches Carson on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Weight

Height

Differs from Carson on

Recruiting rating (lower)

Yards / attempt (higher)

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Tanner Morgan’s path through Minnesota.

Tanner Morgan

84%match

Minnesota · 2022

Desmond Ridder

Cincinnati · 2021

All-AACNFL Rd 3 · Pk 10

82%

Dustin Crum

Kent State · 2021

All-MAC

80%

Ian Book

Notre Dame · 2020

All-ACCNFL Rd 4

81%

Will Howard

Ohio State · 2024

All-Big TenNFL Rd 6

78%

Matches Tanner on

Yards per attempt

Completion %

Height

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Sawyer Robertson's junior season at Baylor (2024).

Sawyer Robertson

62%match

Baylor · 2024

All-Big 12

Jayden Maiava

USC · 2025

All-Big Ten

60%

Grayson McCall

Coastal Carolina · 2022

All-Sun Belt

58%

Jaxson Dart

Ole Miss · 2023

All-SECNFL Rd 1 · Pk 25

56%

Shedeur Sanders

Colorado · 2024

All-Big 12NFL Rd 5

55%

Matches Sawyer on

Height

Differs from Sawyer on

Recruiting rating (lower)

Rush yards / carry (lower)

TD rate (lower)

Player DNA

Players who play like Joey Aguilar

Seth Henigan

Memphis · 2023

80%

Walker Eget

San José State · 2024

72%

Ethan Vasko

Coastal Carolina · 2024

71%

Carson Beck

Miami · 2025

68%

Sawyer Robertson

Baylor · 2024

67%

Heisman trajectory

Heisman Trajectory · 2025

Peak #28

Final rank

#28

Avg #29.7

Finalist prob 5%

Peaked at #28 this season.

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Joey Aguilar

202314 games

202411 games

202513 games

2025 snapshot

Passing profile

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Impact starter

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Pocket Passer

Players who play like Joey Aguilar

Heisman trajectory

Peak #28