Lincoln Pare

Senior running back for Texas State. 2025: 1,129 rushing yards, 12 rushing TD, 37 catches.

RB · Texas State · Sr. · #7

5′9″ · 200 lb · Germantown, TN

CFB Index 80 · #18 of 326 RBsHigh confidenceAll-ConferenceReturning to Texas State for 2026

The numbers

1,129

rushing yards · 2025

12 TD · 5.4 per carry · 37 catches

Backed by 22 car · 113 yds · 3 TD -- top 1% rushing TDs game.

The play that turned itSwung Texas State from 14% to 84% to win.Texas State at Arkansas State · 31-30

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 running back for Texas State. 2025: 1,129 rushing yards, 12 rushing TD, 37 catches.

Signed as a 2-star recruit to Arkansas State in 2020.

His career, year by year

How he plays

Does a little of everything without one standout trait.

TD rate: 74th percentile.

The full scouting read

Lincoln Pare

RB · Texas State · Sr · #7

Does a little of everything without one standout trait. Across five seasons and two programs, four head coaches: Blake Anderson, Butch Jones, Jake Spavital and G.J. Kinne. 2025 brought the first one: All-Sun Belt. The receipt on tape: 167 rush yds, 20 rec yds against Eastern Michigan, Week 1, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
recognition record
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2020Arkansas State4-7HC: Blake Anderson · Balanced, fast tempo

2021Arkansas State2-10HC: Butch Jones · Pass-heavy

2022Texas State4-8HC: Jake Spavital · Balanced

2024Texas State8-5HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-leaning

2025Texas State7-6HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-heavy

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

80All-Conference level #18 of 326?

High confidenceAscending12 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: receptions (97th percentile). Strength: rec yards (96th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

TD rate#117 / 456 · 74th pct

4.2%

EPA / carry#142 / 456 · 69th pct

0.18

Success rate#145 / 456 · 68th pct

47.5%

Yards / carry#260 / 456 · 43rd pct

4.8

Explosive rate#283 / 456 · 38th pct

5.2%

Box-score rates (7)

Receptions#9 / 338 · 97th pct

Rec yards#14 / 338 · 96th pct

311

Rush yards#21 / 349 · 94th pct

1129

Carries#21 / 349 · 94th pct

211

Rush TDs#19 / 349 · 94th pct

Long run#88 / 349 · 75th pct

Yards / carry#108 / 349 · 68th pct

5.4

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / carry

72nd → 69th percentile

Success rate

58th → 68th percentile

Explosive rate

84th → 38th percentile

Yards / carry

71st → 43rd percentile

TD rate

90th → 74th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Situational

Situational · Carry shape (PBP, full season)

Yardage DNA

213 carries

12%

Stuffed (≤0)

41%

Grind (1–3)

38%

Chunk (4–9)

Explosive (10+)

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home7g	94.0	6.4	0.9
Road6g	78.5	4.9	1.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-77g	98.1	6.6	1.3
Weeks 8+6g	73.7	4.7	0.5

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

G.J. Kinne

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

All-Conference

Picked for an all-conference team by at least one selector.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

80 · #18 of 326 RBs

Two-star recruit. Now #18 at the position.

2026 outlook

In the mix for All-Pac-12

Based on 2025: #3 of 36 Sun Belt RBs — his program moves to the Pac-12 for 2026

How the All-Pac-12 estimate is computed

49% estimated, 95% confidence interval 43–54%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player. The base rate was measured on players who stayed in the same conference; this estimate is not adjusted for the move to the Pac-12.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Texas State	211	1,129	5.4	12	--
2024	Texas State	94	547	5.8	8	--
2022	Texas State	172	760	4.4	5	--
2021	Arkansas State	107	448	4.2	1	--
2020	Arkansas State	72	450	6.2	1	--
Career		656	3,334	5.1	27	--

Season	Team
2025	Texas State	37	311	8.4	2	--
2024	Texas State	12	134	11.2	0	--
2022	Texas State	29	229	7.9	1	--
2021	Arkansas State	27	283	10.5	2	--
2020	Arkansas State	12	85	7.1	2	--
Career		117	1,042	8.9	7	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2025

W 43–36

at UTSA

71 rush yds (21 car) · 1 TD

Edged out UTSA on the road in a shootout.

With B. Jackson — 286 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · QBR 87.2 · 34 rush yds (12 car) · 2 TD · D. Nunez — 40 AVG · 1 IN 20 · 47 LONG

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 7 · Troy · 3&1 · Q1 · EPA +5.81Lincoln Pare run for 62 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)
Week 1 · Rice · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +5.05(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 63 yards gain to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:41, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)
Week 11 · Louisiana · 2&6 · Q1 · EPA +4.73(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 54 yards gain to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:27, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)
Week 1 · Eastern Michigan · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.88Lincoln Pare run for 57 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST down
Week 6 · Arkansas State · 4&3 · Q3 · EPA -3.67Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the ARST 16
Week 2 · UTSA · 3&2 · Q3 · EPA +3.16Lincoln Pare run for 28 yds to the UTSA 39 for a 1ST down
Week 14 · South Alabama · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.87(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #7 L.Pare caught at USA32, for 32 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:08, 1ST DOWN #86 T.Lyons pass attempt Successful
Week 13 · UL Monroe · 3&6 · Q3 · EPA +2.82(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #7 L.Pare caught at ULM04, for 6 yards to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:12 #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)
Week 1 · Eastern Michigan · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.65Lincoln Pare 22 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)
Week 4 · Nicholls · 3&1 · Q2 · EPA +2.54Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 52-27vs Eastern Michigan	12	167	13.9	1	57	Season-high 167 yds
Wk 2	W 43-36@ UTSA	21	71	3.4	1	28
Wk 3	L 15-34@ Arizona State	13	61	4.7	0	18
Wk 4	W 35-3vs Nicholls	15	64	4.3	1	9
Wk 6	L 30-31@ Arkansas State	21	105	5.0	2	18
Wk 7	L 41-48vs Troy	22	113	5.1	3	62	3 rushing TDs
Wk 8	L 37-40@ Marshall	14	27	1.9	1	4
Wk 10	L 20-52vs James Madison	12	40	3.3	0	8
Wk 11	L 39-42@ Louisiana	10	89	8.9	1	54
Wk 12	W 41-14@ Southern Miss	21	118	5.6	1	20
Wk 13	W 31-14vs UL Monroe	19	76	4.0	0	18
Wk 14	W 49-26vs South Alabama	20	92	4.6	0	12
Bowl	W 41-10vs Rice	11	106	9.6	1	63
Total		211	1129	5.7	12	63

How he plays

Play style

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

CFB Index positional classification

Boom vs consistent · carry-yardage shape

Steady, not spectacular

~ our read

213Carries

1017Yards

20.1%Top-5 share

12.2%Stuffed rate

Just 20.1% of his season rushing yards came on his 5 best carries — remarkably even — and he's stuffed on 12.2% of his carries. 19 carries for 35 yds vs Marshall; 12 for 167 vs Eastern Michigan.

Closer · Q4-with-lead carry share

The closer

~ our read

39.6%Carry share

31.5%Q4-lead share

62.1%In competitive games

39.6% of carries overall (216/545) → 31.5% of Q4-with-lead carries (29/92) — 62.1% of those in competitive (≤16-pt) games.

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

22/283rd/4th & short

11/21Inside-5 share

22 of 28 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (78.6%). 11 of the team's 21 inside-the-5 carries (52.4%).

2026 Outlook

Texas State

Preseason read · May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Running back · Texas State

Returning around him

76% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
Transfer portal: -3 net (18 in / 21 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Texas State · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #82 · 2026 recruiting class #74

DNA match

Player DNA

Balanced Back

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Nelson Smith’s 2020 season.

Nelson Smith

78%match

Navy · 2020

Juwaun Price

New Mexico State · 2021

68%

Nathan Carter

Michigan State · 2024

65%

TJ Green

Liberty · 2021

62%

Jermaine Brown Jr.

UAB · 2023

62%

Matches Nelson on

Rush TD rate

Yards / carry

Height

Through 5 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Garrett Groshek’s path through Wisconsin.

Garrett Groshek

99%match

Wisconsin · 2020

Narii Gaither

Gardner-Webb · 2023

98%

Herschel Turner

Nevada · 2025

92%

Andrew Body

Alabama State · 2025

93%

Caleb Ramseur

Nevada · 2025

91%

Matches Garrett on

Yards per carry

As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Marquez Cooper's graduate season at San Diego State (2024).

Marquez Cooper

66%match

San Diego State · 2024

All-Mountain West

Justice Ellison

Indiana · 2024

All-ACC

62%

Jordan Simmons

Akron · 2024

61%

Dontae McMillan

Eastern Michigan · 2025

All-MAC

58%

Marcus Carroll

Missouri · 2024

All-Sun Belt

57%

Matches Marquez on

Yards / carry

Total rush EPA (college ability)

Rush TD rate

Differs from Marquez on

Recruiting rating (lower)

Receiving share (higher)

Player DNA

Players who play like Lincoln Pare

Blake Watson

Old Dominion · 2022

82%

BJ Harris

Central Michigan · 2024

81%

OJ Arnold

Georgia Southern · 2022

80%

Quincy Craig

Arizona · 2025

79%

Ty Son Lawton

Indiana · 2024

77%

Heisman trajectory

Heisman Trajectory · 2025

Peak #97

Final rank

#216

Avg #184.0

Finalist prob 0%

Peaked at #97 this season.

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Lincoln Pare

20209 games

202212 games

202513 games

2025 snapshot

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

All-Conference

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Balanced Back

Players who play like Lincoln Pare

Heisman trajectory

Peak #97