Houston

2-0AP #22

Big 12 · Willie Fritz, year 3 (16-11) · TDECU Stadium · 40,000 · 28,839 avg in 2026

The nationAP #22 · Coaches #23no change
The model#24 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #46 (+6.5) · FPI #33
The marketTexas Tech by 7.5at Texas Tech · our model 31% Houston · a number, not a pick

LastW 77–6 vs Southern · Sat Sep 12 · Keisean Henderson 83 pass yds, 2 TD, 54 rush yds

Nextat Texas Tech · Fri Sep 18 · 8 pm ET · Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech by 7.5 · series 18-17-1, lost the last 7 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
55.0
Pts allowed/game
13.0
Total yards/gm#14 / 138 · 90th pct
562.0
Rush yards/gm#8 / 138 · 95th pct
308.0
Pass yards/gm#59 / 138 · 58th pct
254.0
Yards allowed/gmT-#35 / 138 · 75th pct
261.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#1 / 138 · 99th pct
10.0
SacksT-#38 / 138 · 65th pct
5
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down conv#1 / 138 · 99th pct
71.4%
All 85 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1124562.0/gm8.26/play#14 / 138 · 90th pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#1 / 16 · 97th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
523261.5/gm4.55/playT-#35 / 138 · 75th pctT-#31 / 69 · 55th pct#7 / 16 · 59th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
616308.0/gm4.53/play#8 / 138 · 95th pct#4 / 69 · 95th pct#2 / 16 · 91st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2010.0/gm0.17/play#1 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 16 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
8643.0/gmT-#28 / 138 · 80th pctT-#13 / 69 · 81st pct#6 / 16 · 66th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4723.5/gm#6 / 138 · 96th pct#5 / 69 · 93rd pct#1 / 16 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
94.5/gmT-#4 / 138 · 96th pctT-#3 / 69 · 95th pct#2 / 16 · 91st pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 50th pctT-#34 / 69 · 36th pctT-#8 / 16 · 31st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
508254.0/gm3.74/play#59 / 138 · 58th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#9 / 16 · 47th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
503251.5/gm4.37/play#110 / 138 · 21st pct#61 / 69 · 12th pct#14 / 16 · 16th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5025.0/gmT-#101 / 138 · 26th pctT-#57 / 69 · 17th pct#12 / 16 · 28th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6834.0/gmT-#97 / 138 · 29th pctT-#49 / 69 · 28th pct#11 / 16 · 34th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3517.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 41st pctT-#48 / 69 · 28th pctT-#11 / 16 · 31st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3919.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 39th pctT-#47 / 69 · 30th pctT-#11 / 16 · 31st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
63.0/gmT-#17 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#14 / 69 · 74th pctT-#3 / 16 · 78th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#45 / 138 · 57th pctT-#29 / 69 · 46th pct#9 / 16 · 47th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
190.9190.9#11 / 115 · 91st pct#11 / 59 · 82nd pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Opp
126.3126.3#46 / 91 · 50th pct#29 / 41 · 30th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#6 / 13 · 62nd pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 69 · 53rd pctT-#7 / 16 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 69 · 64th pctT-#3 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
52.5/gmT-#38 / 138 · 65th pctT-#21 / 69 · 60th pctT-#6 / 16 · 53rd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#9 / 138 · 86th pctT-#6 / 69 · 83rd pctT-#2 / 16 · 78th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
115.5/gmT-#63 / 138 · 49th pctT-#37 / 69 · 42nd pctT-#10 / 16 · 38th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#8 / 138 · 93rd pctT-#7 / 69 · 89th pctT-#2 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
5829.0/gmT-#14 / 138 · 89th pctT-#7 / 69 · 89th pctT-#2 / 16 · 88th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2412.0/gmT-#16 / 138 · 88th pctT-#15 / 69 · 78th pctT-#2 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
157.5/gmT-#20 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#10 / 69 · 84th pctT-#3 / 16 · 78th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#8 / 138 · 93rd pctT-#7 / 69 · 89th pct#2 / 16 · 91st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2110.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 15th pctT-#57 / 69 · 15th pctT-#14 / 16 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2814.0/gmT-#62 / 138 · 50th pctT-#32 / 69 · 49th pctT-#8 / 16 · 50th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
10.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 29th pctT-#44 / 69 · 32nd pctT-#11 / 16 · 31st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 69 · 32nd pctT-#10 / 16 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
10.5/gmT-#119 / 138 · 9th pctT-#55 / 69 · 14th pctT-#12 / 16 · 22nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
63.0/gmT-#112 / 138 · 14th pctT-#59 / 69 · 10th pctT-#14 / 16 · 9th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
69:0834:34/gm#27 / 138 · 81st pct#10 / 69 · 86th pct#1 / 16 · 97th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
50:5225:26/gm#19 / 138 · 87th pct#10 / 69 · 86th pct#1 / 16 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.58 EPA/play1229 / 4269.0425
#67 FBS
10.14
#36 FBS
1180.76548.3
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.25 EPA/play212251425.72
#43 FBS
18
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.83 EPA/play211162
#54 FBS
14.72
#24 FBS
37
Complete TE · +0.70 EPA/play92810012.5130

2026 stat leaders · Houston

through 2 games

Amare Thomas leads Houston with 162 receiving yards through 2 games.

1. Amare Thomas WR 162 receiving yards
2. Conner Weigman QB 425 passing yards
3. Makhi Hughes RB 142 rushing yards
4. Kentrell Webb DB 9 tackles
5. Jalen Mayo DB 9 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Houston fields a struggling offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
24th pct EPA/play
Defense
64th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
78th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Houston · 2025

Houston reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 23%) and passing epa (top 35%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Houston sits at the 6th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.10
24th
Success Rate +0.41
42nd
Explosive Plays +1.25
47th
Rushing EPA -0.03
7th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.11
64th
Success Rate Allowed +0.41
55th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.18
78th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.22
56th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.31
65th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.05
62nd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Houston · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Houston has had no measurable home edge — −0.6 points, home against road.

No measurable home edge, 0th percentile of 133 programs

52% at home, 57% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (22–20 home, 25–19 away). Interval ±3.8.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Houston has beaten the number by −2.1 more at home than away over 72 games — inside the ±7.0 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

TDECU Stadium seats 40,000 and has averaged 76% full (30,237, 27 games reported). Visitors cover a median 487 miles to get here since 2018 — 56th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 42% of the 2026 roster (49 of 117 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.

Home22–20Away25–19Edge−0.6 ±3.8Visitor trip487 mi

More in this tab

Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Houston’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Slade Nagle (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 35% → 2026: 36% · 1-pt range · #182 of 184 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 35% → 2026: 29% · 6-pt range · #156 of 182 · less than most
Defense: Austin Armstrong (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 35% → 2026: 36% · 1-pt range · #204 of 203 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 35% → 2026: 29% · 6-pt range · #174 of 200 · less than most
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Houston

CFB Zeitgeist

#24

+6.4

SP+

#46

+6.5

FPI

#33

+9.2

Elo

#59

1521

The national models put Houston between 33rd and 59th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 24th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Houston

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

77°F average kickoff temp; 12% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.

Based on 74 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site