Before kickoff, our ratings gave Duke a 77% chance, and the closing betting line (Duke was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.
FinalDuke 35-7 StanfordDuke wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalStanford 7-35 DukeStanford lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 14:13Duke recovers onside kick, drives to Stanford 3, but Eget throws interceptionCan't force that throw there. Not sure I like rolling to the short side of the field either.r/CFB game thread
Q2 11:35Officials flag Duke for illegal equipment on Sheppard runCOMMANDER SHEPPARDr/CFB game thread
Q2 6:09Sheppard catches Eget pass for touchdown, extending Duke lead to 14-0Quoted at the top of the page.
Q2 5:24Warren has like .00001 seconds to get rid of the ballr/CFB game threadNate Sheppard should be in the conversation for Heisman next year, even if he will never win it since it’s a quarterback award now.r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:16Warren throws touchdown pass to High as Stanford scores late in first halfWe have zero business being within one score but I'll take itr/CFB game thread
Duke’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Duke -9.5), at 85% for Duke (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Duke or Stanford flair (233 and 103); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Duke’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.
“That entire start to the game essentially amounted to a wasted minute because we are now at the spot where we would have been with a touchback on the kick return”
A Stanford fan
What it cost
Duke’s chance to win the conference rose from 1% to 2%.
Win the conference
Stanford · lost0% → 0%
Duke · won1% → ▲2%
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Duke 35, Stanford 7
Duke covered −9.5 by 18.5. The total, 42, stayed under 51.5.
Team totals
Stanford
Duke
Total yards
237
470
Passing
20 of 36, 164 yds
14 of 24, 202 yds
Rushing
22 for 73 yds
47 for 268 yds
First downs
15
22
Third down
2 of 11
4 of 11
Fourth down
0 of 2
1 of 2
Turnovers
1
1
Penalties
5 for 50 yds
9 for 80 yds
Time of possession
22:46
37:14
Stanford leaders
Passing Davis Warren 18 of 32, 151 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Micah Ford 11 for 76 yds; Sedrick Irvin 4 for 18 yds
Receiving Caden High 5 for 43 yds, 1 TD; Micah Ford 4 for 34 yds
Duke leaders
Passing Walker Eget 14 of 24, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Nate Sheppard 23 for 154 yds, 2 TD; CJ Campbell 9 for 42 yds
Receiving Jeremiah Hasley 5 for 88 yds; Jaivon Solomon 2 for 51 yds
No rain through the game
86° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 62 other games played at Wallace Wade Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 72°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 81°.
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Durham - Duke North Heliport airport, 0.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Stanford · 1-1
Rated 97th in our preseason ratings, 101st now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Duke is rated 3.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Duke’s EPA/play against Stanford, 87 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Duke’s EPA/play against Stanford’s defense
Duke offense, 87th percentile · Stanford defense, 0th
Duke’s passing EPA against Stanford’s defense
Duke offense, 80th percentile · Stanford defense, 9th
Duke’s explosive plays against Stanford’s defense
Duke offense, 80th percentile · Stanford defense, 15th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
StanfordDuke
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Stanford leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 1971 · Stanford has won the last 3
2012Stanford 50-13
2011Stanford 44-14
1972Stanford 10-6
1971Duke 9-3
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Duke fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (65th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Duke favored by 9.5 · Total 51.5
How games like this usually go
Duke by 9.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Stanford.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −10 → −9.5 · Total: 50.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 88° at kickoff.
Stanford at Duke · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham
88°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
68weather score, Rough
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Wallace Wade Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 96, against 68 at 4 pm.
Duke has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.3 points (±4.3), home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.
53% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (24-21 home, 19-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 2,375 miles to get here.
Duke 35-7 Stanford
Duke wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.