California routs Wagner 49-7

Wagner1-37
California2-149Final
Sat, Sep 19 · California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, Calif. · Crowd 35,586ACC Network

California routed Wagner 49-7.

We had California favored. It won.

Next: Wagner lost to Central Connecticut 45-14, Sat Oct 3

Next: California lost to Clemson 24-10, Fri Sep 25

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave California a 96% chance, and the closing betting line (California was a 58.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

California led by 29 after the first quarter and by 32 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+42+42
80-yard TD passCalifornia · Q1 3:32Blocked field goalQ4 10:11
FinalCalifornia 49-7 WagnerCalifornia wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4CaliforniaWon49-7Scores80-yard TD passBlocked field goal
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4CaliforniaWon49-7Scores80-yard TD passBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4CaliforniaLowest 0%Lost7-49Scores80-yard TD passBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4CaliforniaLowest 0%Lost7-49Scores80-yard TD passBlocked field goal

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

California’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (California -58.5), at 100% for California (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

California scored on 8 of its 11 drives; Wagner on 1 of its 13.

California’s drives are teal, Wagner’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1California: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWagner: Punt, from 42 yards out to 39PuntCalifornia: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownWagner: Punt, from 50 yards out to 52PuntCalifornia: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownWagner: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntCalifornia: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownWagner: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2California: Field goal, from 68 yards out to 18Field goalWagner: Punt, from 81 yards out to 81PuntCalifornia: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownWagner: Punt, from 75 yards out to 59PuntCalifornia: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 53FumbleWagner: Missed field goal, from 47 yards out to 27Missed FGQ3Wagner: Punt, from 75 yards out to 61PuntCalifornia: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownWagner: Interception, from 72 yards out to 72InterceptionCalifornia: Turned over on downs, from 2 yards out to 3DownsWagner: Punt, from 97 yards out to 88PuntCalifornia: Missed field goal, from 44 yards out to 25Missed FGWagner: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56PuntQ4Wagner: Missed field goal, from 17 yards out to 15Missed FGCalifornia: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 19Field goalWagner: End of game, from 79 yards out to 49End of game
“Ok the going for 2 was just disrespectful”
A California fan

When fans got loud

Roaring

The biggest reaction came in the first quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthCalifornia fansWagner fansusual

Never in doubt.

Box score

California 49, Wagner 7

Wagner covered +58.5 by 16.5. The total, 56, stayed under 65.5.

WagnerCaliforniaTotal yardsWagner 198California 626198626Passing yardsWagner 86California 49286492Rushing yardsWagner 112California 134112134First downsWagner 10California 281028TurnoversWagner 1California 212Time of possessionWagner 28:08California 31:5228:0831:52
Team totalsWagnerCalifornia
Total yards198626
Passing15 of 32, 86 yds35 of 43, 492 yds
Rushing27 for 112 yds28 for 134 yds
First downs1028
Third down4 of 153 of 9
Fourth down1 of 12 of 3
Turnovers12
Penalties4 for 40 yds8 for 80 yds
Time of possession28:0831:52

Wagner leaders

  • Passing Benjamin Newman 15 of 31, 86 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Shawn James 8 for 36 yds; Benjamin Newman 1 for 23 yds
  • Receiving Derek Burrell 3 for 24 yds; Jeremiah Colclough 3 for 24 yds

California leaders

  • Passing Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 27 of 33, 413 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Adam Mohammed 13 for 91 yds, 2 TD; Ashten Emory 6 for 17 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Kyion Grayes 3 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Chase Hendricks 9 for 98 yds

No rain and calm

66° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 13 mph from the west-northwest, mostly along the field, gusts to 24

September game-day temperatures at California Memorial Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4California favoredWagner favored100%Win chanceCaliforniaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4California favoredWagner favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:48 left12:37 p.m.
Wagner 0, California 0 · California 100% to win
no rain · wind 12 mph from the west-northwest, mostly along the field, gusts to 18 · 65°
Mohammed 2-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Oakland airport, 11 miles away, and Concord/buchanan airport, 14 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Wagner · 1-2

Rated 221st in our preseason ratings, 248th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 3-87 @ James Madison #82 of 668

lost by 84 as a 46.5-point underdog

Wagner lost 3-87 at James Madison. Never had a real chance.

W 31-7 vs Southern Connecticut State #385 of 668

Wagner won 31-7 vs Southern Connecticut State. Chance to win started at 55%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

L 7-28 vs Robert Morris #214 of 668

lost by 21 as a 5.5-point favorite

Wagner lost 7-28 vs Robert Morris. Chance to win started at 72%, low under 1%, high 75%.

Last two games

California · 1-1

Rated 63rd in our preseason ratings, 73rd now.

1-1 in its last two, capped by a 3-point win over Syracuse as a 4-point underdog.

L 24-45 vs UCLATop 25 #59 of 668

lost by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog

California lost 24-45 vs UCLA. Chance to win started at 53%, low under 1%, high 74%.

Week by week

California

Wk 1: L 24-45 vs UCLA▼21UCLAWk 2: W 21-18 at Syracuse▲3Syracuse
  • Wk 1Lvs UCLA24-45
  • Wk 2Wat Syracuse21-18

Wagner

Wk 1: L 7-28 vs Robert Morris▼21Robert MorrisWk 1: W 31-7 vs Southern Connecticut State▲24S. Connecticut…Wk 2: L 3-87 at James Madison▼84James Madison
  • Wk 1Lvs Robert Morris7-28
  • Wk 1Wvs Southern Connecticut State31-7
  • Wk 2Lat James Madison3-87

Power rating by week

California is rated 10.8 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

3-5-13Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2CaliforniaWagner

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on California’s chances here.

50-50Model 96% · Line 100%WagnerCalifornia

California favored by 58.5 · Total 65.5

How games like this usually go

California by 58.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 67° at kickoff.

Wagner at California · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley

  • 67°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed.

  • 12:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 4:15 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 8 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

California is worth +1.6 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 10th percentile.

49% at home, 39% on the road against FBS opponents (22-23 home, 17-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.4 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 2,552 miles to get here.

Where next