Baylor Hayes

#10 · QB · R-So. · Tulsa6′0″ · 185 lb · Brentwood, TN

ZPR30103rd of 119 QBs Last gameL 35–38vs Army · Oct 23

Nextat TulaneSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET

Tulsa is 3-3 in the six games played. A balanced passer.

Strongest: an interception on 1.0% of throws, 26th lowest of 158 starters.

Plays most like Watson, Massachusetts.

Passing yards

1,343

121 of 192, 63%

TD–INT

10–2

7.0 per throw

NCAA rating

136.9

70th of 119

ZPR

103rd of 119

How ZPR works

Shaky or worse in 4 of 6 graded games.

Best by our grade: at Rice. Lowest: North Texas. Best play: Completion for 13 yards, touchdown, against Army, Q4 13:25. Win chance 62% to 85%.

Tap a game for its plays

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Oklahoma State

W 24–10·Unranked

Solid

Strong start, faded late · 227 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · Rush 6 for 28 · Sacked 0

Baylor hayes already looks miles better than last season!!
Tulsa fan

Biggest swing: a Q3 completion added 12 points of win chance. Win chance: 83% to 96%.

Full game page

at Sam Houston

W 23–17·Unranked

Shaky

Last pass came in the fourth quarter; Dexter Williams II finished the game · 126 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · Rush 9 for 14 · Sacked 3

None of the quarterback’s own plays moved the team's chance of winning by more than a few points.

Full game page

East Texas A&M

W 42–0·FCS

Did not play

at Arkansas

L 6–34·Unranked

Did not play

Williams is doing fine. He isn't terrible, isn't great. He a fine back-up. If Baylor Hayes was 100% this is a very different game.
Tulsa fan

North Texas

L 44–45·Unranked

Rough

211 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · Rush 5 for 14, 2 TD · Sacked 1

Biggest swing: a Q4 run added 42 points of win chance. It flipped the game for the team: 36% to 77%.

Full game page

at Navy

L 26–34·Unranked

Rough

268 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · Rush 4 for 14 · Sacked 1

Biggest swing: a Q3 completion added 9 points of win chance. Win chance: 79% to 88%.

Full game page

at Rice

W 38–17·Unranked

Great

249 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · Rush 5 for 3 · Sacked 1

Biggest swing: a Q2 completion added 21 points of win chance. It flipped the game for the team: 38% to 59%.

Full game page

Army

L 35–38·Unranked

Shaky

Steady all game · 262 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · Rush 6 for -3 · The interception cost about 6 points of win chance · Sacked 2

Biggest swing: a Q4 completion added 26 points of win chance. Win chance: 65% to 91%.

Full game page

Season

Fades after halftime

How to read this

Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for the quarterback, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming the quarterback. Dashed outlines on the Season row are last season’s average. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of the quarterback’s plays, up helped the team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.

The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as the season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.

Style of play

Balanced

Why this word

Runs4.5 a gameRarelyA lot

Throws8.5 yards past the lineShortDeep

Completes64% by play-by-playFewerMore

Takes sacks4% of dropbacksRarelyOften

The dot is this quarterback, among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.

Throws at a middling depth and runs some. 4.5 carries a game. Closest matches: Watson, Mandal, Simpson ’25, Fifita ’25.

Where the throws go

Behind the line19%typical 17%

Short48%typical 47%

Middle18%typical 22%

Deep14%typical 14%

Runs 4.5 times a game; 56% of starters run less.

Closest in style

Nearer the middle means more alike.

Watson Massachusetts · Precision passer
1,025 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT so far. Close across the board.
Mandal Fresno State · Balanced
1,595 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT so far. Both protect the ball.
Simpson ’25 Alabama 2025 · Balanced
3,567 yards, 28 TD, 5 INT. Drafted in round 1 (No. 13 overall) by Los Angeles, 2026. Both protect the ball.
Fifita ’25 Arizona 2025 · Balanced
3,228 yards, 29 TD, 6 INT. Both protect the ball.

Compared with the 158 FBS starters this season for throws and running, and with 219 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.

This week

RecordTulsa is 4-4.
Last gameOct. 23 · a loss to Army, 262 passing yards.
Next gameat Tulane · Sat Nov 7

What’s being said

3 stories in the last 30 days, from 4 outlets.

Stories per day. W and L: the team’s results.

Tulsa pulls away from Rice behind Baylor Hayes' 3 TD passes

247Sports +1 Oct 17

All 13 stories this season

His most important play this season

Q4, 13:25 · Tulsa breaks the tieBaylor Hayes finds Jimmy Calloway for a 13-yard touchdownArmy at Tulsa, week 8Q4, 13:25 · Tulsa 35, Army 28▲23%Tulsa’s chance to win, 62% to 85%▲23%Tulsa’s chance to win, 62% to 85%B.Hayes pass complete short right to J.Calloway caught at Army00, for 13 yards to the Army00 touchdown, kick goodWatch from this play

All 7 of his plays on video

Baylor Hayes

QB · Tulsa · #10

Came to Tulsa by way of East Tennessee State. One game to point at: 268 passing yards and 14 rushing yards against Navy — Week 6, 2026.

1,343 passing yards · 10 passing TD · 73 rushing yards

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2026	Tulsa	121	192	63.0%	1,343	7.0	10	2	136.9	30
2025	Tulsa	186	316	58.9%	2,159	6.8	12	6	125.0	32
Career		307	508	60.4%	3,502	6.9	22	8	129.5	31

Season	Team
2026	Tulsa	35	70	2.0	2	13
2025	Tulsa	95	188	2.0	3	24
Career		130	258	2.0	5	24

Last game (Wk 8): 262 passing yards, 2 passing TD, 1 interception.

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2026 season · 6 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	Grade	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	SK	RUSH	Note
Wk 1	W 24-10vs Oklahoma State	Solid	17/24	227	1	1	9.5	—	0	28
Wk 2	W 23-17@ Sam Houston	Shaky	16/29	126	0	0	4.3	17.8	3	14
Wk 5	L 44-45vs North Texas	Rough	25/43	211	3	0	4.9	60.7	1	14	3 TD passes
Wk 6	L 26-34@ Navy	Rough	20/35	268	1	0	7.7	63.4	1	14	Season-high 268 yds
Wk 7	W 38-17@ Rice	Great	20/27	249	3	0	9.2	87.1	1	3	3 TD passes
Wk 8	L 35-38vs Army	Shaky	23/34	262	2	1	7.7	48.3	2	-3
Total			121/192	1343	10	2	7.0	—	8	70

The latest game

Oct. 23 · L 35-38 vs Army, play by play

23 of 34 for 262 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. He was 5 of 11 on third and fourth down.

4 of 10 of his drives scored
5 of 11 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked twice
4 runs for 7 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
TD4 of 4, 58 yds
Punt1 of 3, 5 yds1
Second quarterbegan down 10-7
TD3 of 4, 41 yds2
Int1 of 2, 8 yds3
Third quarterbegan down 20-14
Punt1 of 1, 7 yds
TD4 of 6, 35 yds
TD3 of 6, 40 yds
Fourth quarterbegan tied 28-28
Missed FG5 of 6, 64 yds4
Punt1 of 1, 4 yds
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
FinalL 35-38

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
5-yard completion to Jimmy Calloway on 3rd and 10. First quarter, down 10-7.
2
20-yard completion to Javon Ross on 3rd and 12. Second quarter, down 10-7. Converted.
3
Intercepted. Second quarter, down 17-14. Picked off by Army’s Julian Porter.
4
31-yard completion to Oran Singleton Jr.. Fourth quarter, up 35-28.

The season, game by game

L 35-38 vs ArmyOct. 23262 yds23 of 34, 2 TD, 1 INTPlay by play just above

W 38-17 at RiceOct. 17249 yds20 of 27, 3 TD

Play by playOn the field

20 of 27 for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns. He was 6 of 10 on third and fourth down.

5 of 8 of his drives scored
6 of 10 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
4 runs for 15 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Downs4 of 4, 62 yds1
Second quarterbegan down 7-0
TD3 of 4, 49 yds2
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds
TD4 of 4, 41 yds
TD2 of 2, 12 yds3
Third quarterbegan up 21-17
Punt1 of 3, 17 yds4
FG2 of 4, 22 yds
TD4 of 4, 46 yds
FinalW 38-17

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
33-yard completion to Oran Singleton Jr. on 3rd and 20. First quarter, down 7-0. Converted.
2
35-yard completion to David Wells Jr. on 4th and 4. Second quarter, down 10-0. Converted.
3
8-yard touchdown pass to Oran Singleton Jr. on 3rd and 8. Second quarter, made it 21-17.
4
17-yard completion to David Wells Jr. on 3rd and 20. Third quarter, up 21-17.

10203040503533

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

4 more games, with the play by play

L 26-34 at NavyOct. 10268 yds20 of 35, 1 TDBox score only

20 of 35 for 268 yards and a touchdown.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

L 44-45 vs North TexasOct. 1211 yds25 of 43, 3 TDBox score only

25 of 43 for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

W 23-17 at Sam HoustonSept. 12126 yds16 of 29

Play by playOn the field

16 of 29 for 126 yards. He was 2 of 11 on third and fourth down.

3 of 9 of his drives scored
2 of 11 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked 3 times
6 runs for 28 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Downs4 of 6, 28 yds123
Punt1 of 2, 3 yds
TD3 of 4, 40 yds4
Second quarterbegan down 7-0
Punt3 of 4, 21 yds
FG3 of 5, 16 yds
Punt1 of 2, 13 yds
Third quarterbegan down 14-10
TD1 of 4, 5 yds
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 23-17
Downs0 of 1, 0 yds
FinalW 23-17

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
Incomplete to Jimmy Calloway on 3rd and 1. First quarter, down 7-0.
2
8-yard completion to Damari Alston on 4th and 1. First quarter, down 7-0. Converted.
3
2-yard completion to Damari Alston on 4th and 3. First quarter, down 7-0. Turnover on downs.
4
21-yard completion to Oran Singleton Jr.. Second quarter, down 7-0.

1020304050

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

W 24-10 vs Oklahoma StateSept. 5227 yds17 of 24, 1 TD, 1 INTBox score only

17 of 24 for 227 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

Highs and lows

Only games with 20 or more plays count for best and lowest.
Best by our grade	at Rice	W 38-17 · Graded great · 249 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · Rush 5 for 3 · Sacked 1
Lowest by our grade	North Texas	L 44-45 · Graded rough · 211 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · Rush 5 for 14, 2 TD · Sacked 1
Best play	Army	Completion for 13 yards, touchdown, Q4 13:25 · Win chance 62% to 85%

Where he ranks

Stat	His	Nation	American Athletic
Passing yards	1,343	T-89th of 370	5th of 37
Yards an attempt	7.0	T-99th of 152	T-8th of 15
Touchdown passes	10	T-70th of 370	T-4th of 37
Passer rating	136.9	81st of 152	7th of 15
Completion percentage	63.0	T-83rd of 152	7th of 15
Rushing yards	70	133rd of 370	18th of 37
Rushing touchdowns	2	T-71st of 370	T-10th of 37

Counting stats rank all FBS quarterbacks with a pass attempt; the rates rank those with at least 10 attempts a game.

All American Athletic quarterbacks

Rk	Quarterback	Yards	TD	INT	Att	Y/A
1	Tayven Jackson	2,568	22	5	268	9.6
2	Caden Veltkamp	2,534	23	5	315	8.0
3	Marcus Stokes	2,532	25	6	259	9.8
4	Owen McCown	1,751	10	4	243	7.2
5	Baylor Hayes	1,343	10	2	192	7.0
6	Ryder Burton	1,333	6	5	194	6.9
7	Michael Van Buren Jr.	1,273	6	0	181	7.0
8	Ajani Sheppard	1,245	8	3	140	8.9
9	Conner Harrell	831	5	2	108	7.7
10	Kadin Semonza	804	4	2	119	6.8
11	Cole Gonzales	802	3	7	127	6.3
12	Mitch Griffis	753	4	5	126	6.0
13	Trace Johnson	749	2	4	106	7.1
14	Jackson Gutierrez	717	7	1	71	10.1
15	Emory Williams	716	7	2	117	6.1
16	Jacurri Brown	471	2	2	82	5.7
17	Cale Hellums	462	4	2	76	6.1
18	Dexter Williams II	340	3	0	59	5.8
19	Gael Ochoa	160	1	0	16	10.0
20	Chaston Ditta	159	1	0	19	8.4
21	Braxton Woodson	152	0	1	25	6.1
22	Jaxon Smolik	129	1	1	27	4.8
23	Air Noland	83	2	1	9	9.2
24	Zach Mundell	82	0	0	3	27.3
25	Drew Devillier	79	0	0	13	6.1
26	Zeon Chriss	64	0	0	9	7.1
27	Luke Kromenhoek	60	0	0	14	4.3
28	Chris Jimerson Jr.	55	1	0	3	18.3
29	Patrick Crayton Jr.	29	0	0	2	14.5
30	Nate Rogers	24	0	0	5	4.8
31	Jordan Magwood	16	0	0	3	5.3
32	Ethan Washington	13	0	0	2	6.5
33	Bryson Luter	12	0	1	4	3.0
34	Dagan Bruno	10	0	0	1	10.0
35	Jeremiah Daoud	6	0	0	4	1.5
36	Jaylen White	5	0	0	5	1.0
37	Brandon Tennison	0	0	0	2	0.0

Sorted by passing yards. Gray: under 10 attempts a game, so not ranked on yards an attempt.

Passing yards1,3435th in the American Athletic this season.

Touchdown passes10tied for 4th in the American Athletic this season.

Conference ranks count every player in the conference with a row in that stat, any position. Career ranks count current FBS players, from the games in our log.

Opponents faced, by strength

Ratings of the games shown run from -18 to +12 points against an average team (SP+ rating of each opponent).

Pass targets

Singleton and Ross saw 82 of the 193 charted throws.

Receiver	Targets	Catches	Yards	Throw depth	After catch
Oran Singleton Jr.	48	35	458	10.8	5.3
Javon Ross	34	24	286	9.1	3.8
Jimmy Calloway	27	18	177	9.2	1.7
David Wells Jr.	23	12	160	13.4	2.8
Damari Alston	20	12	92	1.3	9.5
11 others	34	20	170	4.5	6.3
No receiver charted	7	Both interceptions are among these

Play by play: 193 passes, 123 caught, 1,343 yards; the box score counts 192 attempts. Throw depth: average air yards per target. After catch: average yards after the catch per catch. Bar: targets; the blue part was caught.

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

121/192 (63.0%) · 10 TD · 2 INT

All 192 box-score attempts covered (play-by-play lists 193 passing plays)

190 of 193 attempts charted for true throw depth

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 193 passing plays (123 completions) against the box score's 192 attempts (121 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

7.0174 of 185 QBs

Sack rate

4.0%55 of 185 QBs

Rarely sacked (55 of 185 QBs) and still 74 of 185 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

19% of attempts (37)

92%comp

Air -2.7 · YAC 9.3 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

48% of attempts (92)

63%comp

Air 4.4 · YAC 3.3 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

18% of attempts (34)

50%comp1 INT

Air 13.7 · YAC 1.6 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

14% of attempts (27)

44%comp1 INT

Air 31.3 · YAC 4.2 avg

Overall 63.0% completion on 192 attempts · 44% completion on 27 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2026 baseline

No situation moves him more than 41 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-19 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 1/85 (1.2%) · league sack rate 4.5%

Down 2

-17 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/54 (7.4%) · league sack rate 5.0%

Down 3+

+41 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 3/62 (4.8%) · league sack rate 8.3%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

2 seasons under Tre Lamb — 8-12 over that span.

2025Tulsa4-8HC: Tre Lamb · Run-leaning

2026Tulsa4-4HC: Tre Lamb · Balanced

Our ratings

CFB Zeitgeist Score 40 (#99 of 145). Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

40Below cohort / limited sample #99 of 145 · through 6 games?

12 metrics · season cumulative

through 6 games score: the 2026 sample is not big enough yet. The rows below are 2026 so far. Elite: interception rate (82nd percentile). Strength: interceptions (81st percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Interception rate#28 / 157 · 82nd pct

1.0%

Sack rate#40 / 157 · 75th pct

4.0%

EPA / dropback#56 / 157 · 65th pct

0.24

Explosive rate#64 / 157 · 60th pct

10.9%

Success rate#93 / 157 · 41st pct

40.3%

Box-score rates (7)

Interceptions#18 / 159 · 81st pct

Pass TDs#72 / 159 · 53rd pct

Rush TDs#57 / 159 · 52nd pct

Completion %#86 / 159 · 46th pct

63.0%

Pass yards#92 / 159 · 42nd pct

1343

Rush yards#97 / 159 · 39th pct

Yards / att#102 / 159 · 34th pct

7.0

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

29th → 65th percentile

Success rate

29th → 41st percentile

Explosive rate

60th → 60th percentile

Sack rate

33rd → 75th percentile

Interception rate

49th → 82nd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

After 201 dropbacks

30Zeitgeist Passer Rating103rd of 119 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 136.9 70th of 119 FBS QBs

ZPR ranks this quarterback 33 places lower than passer rating does: the schedule adjustment debits the defenses faced; and passer rating rewards the low interception count, which ZPR treats as mostly luck.

Positive-play rate weight 24%

42.4%18th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · -4.4% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

6.149th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · -0.9 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

4.7%67th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · +0.8% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (0 of 201 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2026 season · 6 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home3g	233	2.0	7.4	0.7
Road3g	214	1.3	7.1	0.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-75g	216	1.6	7.1	0.2
Weeks 8+1g	262	2.0	7.7	1.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Tre Lamb

Pass share

49.7%

255 pass / 258 run

Plays / game

64.1

8 games

Scheme: Balanced.

Tulsa’s two quarterbacks

Baylor Hayes	Threw in 6 of 8 games · 121 of 192, 1,343 yds, 10 TD, 2 INT · 7.0 yards an attempt on 192 attempts · ran for 70 yds, 2 TD
Dexter Williams II	Threw in 3 of 8 games · 34 of 59, 340 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 5.8 yards an attempt on 59 attempts · ran for 13 yds, 0 TD

Box score. Every quarterback on the team who has thrown a pass this season.

Who threw, quarter by quarter

Who threw in each quarter. Blue: Baylor Hayes. Gray: Dexter Williams II. From the play by play.

Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOklahoma State@ Sam HoustonEast Texas A&M@ ArkansasNorth Texas@ Navy@ RiceArmy

Awards

Player standing · 2026

192 pass attempts and 35 carries in 6 games

About as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score

40 · #99 of 145 QBs · through 6 games

Unranked recruit. Now #99 at the position.

2026 outlook

Outside shot for All-AAC

Based on 2025: #14 of 15 American Athletic QBs

How the All-AAC base rate is computed

A base rate for the rank, not a forecast of this player: 22% of returning players who ranked #11–20 at their position in their conference made an all-conference team the next season (95% confidence interval 19–25%).

Baylor Hayes

Style of play

This week

What’s being said

His most important play this season

In the news in the last 30 days

What they’re talking about

In the news this season

What they’re talking about

Week by week

What fans said

In the game threads

Named in

Where to follow

Career stats

Game log

The latest game

The season, game by game

Highs and lows

Where he ranks

Pass targets

Passing profile

Situational

Teams and coaches

Our ratings

Splits

Tulsa’s two quarterbacks

Who threw, quarter by quarter

Awards

192 pass attempts and 35 carries in 6 games

Two seasons at Tulsa

Moves

2024

2025 10 games