cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Michael Trigg /Baylor

Michael Trigg

TE · Baylor · Sr · #1

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

694 REC YDS · 50 REC · 6 REC TD

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Baylor for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Baylor for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Tight end · Baylor

Returning around him

  • 82% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • 2 Baylor players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -1 net (31 in / 32 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Baylor · Last season: 5-7 · Talent rank #35 · 2026 recruiting class #36

TE · BAYLOR · BIG 12

Michael Trigg

  • 4
  • #1
  • 6-4 | 240 lb
  • Tampa, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

91

Elite in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 99th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#579

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP TE AWARD

Mackey

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

5 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2025

2021

USC · TE

2022

Ole Miss · TE

2023

Ole Miss · TE

2024

Baylor · TE

2025

Baylor · TE

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2021–2025
1092021
1562022
65.02023
3952024
6942025

+537%

Up 537% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#130 national
CFB
College
3 teams
2021–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionTE
Class4
Jersey1
Measurements6-4 | 240 lb
HometownTampa, FL
Primary teamBaylor

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 130 recruit
Composite rating 0.9402 HighSchool
Signed with USC 2021
Origin Carrollwood Day Tampa, FL, USA
Class Profile Context
2021 4-star | 0.9402 No. 130 recruit | HighSchool | USC

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#579Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#737Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

  • Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (694).

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to USC

Composite

0.9402

#130 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Michael Trigg

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

Awaiting per-cohort signal

Sample 0 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmNational: 6 mentions · belief +25 · "Welcome to the 2025 Big 12 Uniform Season Review! What a roller coaster season i"National
  • National · n=6

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Michael Trigg

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Yards per reception

13.9

yds

All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions

National rank #168 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 68th

Why it matters

#168 of 531 All FBS WRs at 13.9 yards per reception (50 catches).

Vs cohort

This player 13.9 (68th)

HIGH · n=50 cohort 531

  • Also strong
  • Receiving yards (total)#100 / 531
  • Receiving TDs#55 / 531

Signature Moment

Week 6 vs Kansas State — 155 ypr

Result W 35-34

The week the volume broke through — put up 155 yds vs Kansas State.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 11g
694Rec yards
50Receptions
6Rec TDs
Per game
63.1Rec yards
5Receptions
1Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
820.2Rec yards
59Receptions
7Rec TDs

To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 694): needs 3/game over remaining 2.

To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 694): needs 153/game over remaining 2.

To hit 60-catch season (currently 50): needs 5/game over remaining 2.

To hit 80-catch season (currently 50): needs 15/game over remaining 2.

To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 6): needs 1/game over remaining 2.

To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 6): needs 2/game over remaining 2.

Why the honors trail matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Michael Trigg already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.

Current place #579 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 10.3% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 130 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

TE season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 50 6 rec TD | #6/475 (99th pct)
Receiving yards 694 13.9 per catch | #3/475 (100th pct)
Scrimmage yards 694 Total offensive yardage | #3/475 (100th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Target magnet | Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.

Target magnetBig-play receiver

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
50 99th
YDS
694 100th
YPR
13.9 86th
TD
6 99th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1L 24-38vs Auburn79914.1120
Wk 2W 48-45@ SMU4389.5013
Wk 3W 42-7vs Samford2147.0011
Wk 4L 24-27vs Arizona State57114.22332 TD catches
Wk 5W 45-27@ Oklahoma State36220.7135
Wk 6W 35-34vs Kansas State815519.4042Season-high 155 yds
Wk 8L 36-42@ TCU35618.7036
Wk 9L 20-41@ Cincinnati33010.0115
Wk 10W 30-3vs UCF58216.4132
Wk 12L 28-55vs Utah34214.0027
Wk 13L 17-41@ Arizona7456.4015
Total5069413.7642
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021USC4-8HC: Donte Williams · Balanced, fast tempo
2022Ole Miss8-5HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-heavy, fast tempo
2023Ole Miss11-2HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-leaning
2024Baylor8-5HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning
2025Baylor5-7HC: Dave Aranda · Pass-leaning, fast tempo
SeasonTeam
2025Baylor5069413.96--
2024Baylor3039513.23--
2023Ole Miss46516.21--
2022Ole Miss171569.23--
2021USC710915.61--
Career5 loaded seasons1081,41913.114--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.

Role share

A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 10.3% 17.7% pass-game share | #12/468 (98th pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 6 Across offense and returns | #6/475 (99th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 50 #6/475 99th pct Volumevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving yards 694 #3/475 100th pct Volumevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving TD 6 #6/475 99th pct Scoringvs FBS TE
Receiving Yards / catch 13.9 #69/475 86th pct Efficiencyvs FBS TE
Usage Pass share 17.7% #12/468 98th pct Air-game usagevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving LONG 42 #63/475 87th pct Metricvs FBS TE
Usage 3rd-down usage 13.8% #6/468 99th pct Money-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Passing-down usage 13.2% #6/468 99th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS TE
Usage Role share 10.3% #4/468 99th pct Share of team offensevs FBS TE
Usage 2nd-down usage 10.0% #13/468 97th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Standard-down usage 9.0% #5/468 99th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS TE
Usage 1st-down usage 8.5% #8/468 99th pct Early-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Rush share 0.0% #58/468 88th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS TE

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

ALL-CONF HM

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16

Why he’s here

All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.

What moves him up

A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.

What moves him down

A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home6g5.077.214.20.7
Road5g4.046.213.10.4

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins5g4.470.214.60.4
Losses6g4.757.212.90.7

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-76g4.873.214.10.7
Weeks 8+5g4.251.013.10.4

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort

91Elite
5 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rec yards (98th). Strength: receptions (96th).

Rec yards#3 / 175 · 99th pct
694rece
Receptions#6 / 175 · 97th pct
50rece
Rec TDs#6 / 175 · 95th pct
6rece
Yards / catch#19 / 175 · 89th pct
13.9rece
Long catch#56 / 175 · 67th pct
42rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · TE · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 5 metrics
Michael TriggBaylorDallen BentleyUtah· 95% simBoden GroenKansas· 89% simTrey'Dez GreenLSU· 89% sim
Rec yards
99
Trigg
97
Bentley
87
Groen
83
Green
Receptions
97
Trigg
95
Bentley
83
Groen
77
Green
Rec TDs
95
Trigg
95
Bentley
89
Groen
98
Green
Yards / catch
89
Trigg
82
Bentley
77
Groen
84
Green
Long catch
67
Trigg
74
Bentley
76
Groen
67
Green

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Move TE

Lined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield.

TE

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ben Yurosek’s 2021 season.

Ben Yurosek

70%match

Stanford · 2021

#2

Grant Calcaterra

SMU · 2021

All-AACNFL Rd 6
72%
#3

Seydou Traore

Arkansas State · 2022

All-Sun BeltNFL Rd 5
69%
#4

Bryson Nesbit

North Carolina · 2023

All-ACC
68%
#5

Cade Stover

Ohio State · 2023

All-Big TenNFL Rd 4
68%

Matches Ben on

Class year
Weight

Differs from Ben on

Recruiting rating (higher)
Reception volume (higher)
TD rate (higher)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Lake McRee's graduate season at USC (2025).

Lake McRee

76%match

USC · 2025

All-Big Ten
#2

Malachi Fields

Notre Dame · 2025

All-ACCNFL Rd 3 · Pk 10
67%
#3

Donaven McCulley

Michigan · 2025

62%
#4

Jahmal Banks

Nebraska · 2024

61%
#5

Nate Boerkircher

Texas A&M · 2025

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 24
60%

Matches Lake on

Total EPA (college ability)
EPA / play (adj)
Weight

Differs from Lake on

Recruiting rating (higher)
Reception volume (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dave Aranda

Pass share

55.5%

510 pass / 409 run

Plays / game

76.6

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.0%

417 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Pass-leaning, fast tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025

1 coach
2021
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2022
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2023
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2024
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2025
Dave Aranda
Baylor

Played his entire career under Dave Aranda.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownTampa, FL
Height6'4"
Weight240 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey1

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2025)

All-Big 12

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2025 All-Big 12 all_conference Baylor | Big 12 TE

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Baylor TE4 #579 #737 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Ole Miss TE4 #1178 #946 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | SEC
2022 Ole Miss TE4 #932 #890 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | SEC
2021 USC TE4 #1667 #1818 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Pac-12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Baylor Big 12 TE 4 No. 1 | 6-4 | 240 lb | Tampa, FL
2024 Baylor Big 12 TE 4 No. 1 | 6-4 | 240 lb | Tampa, FL
2023 Ole Miss SEC TE 4 No. 1 | 6-4 | 240 lb | Tampa, FL
2022 Ole Miss SEC TE 4 No. 1 | 6-4 | 240 lb | Tampa, FL
2021 USC Pac-12 TE 4 No. 1 | 6-4 | 240 lb | Tampa, FL