Louisville 41-31 SMU (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: SMU · Louisville

No. 16 SMU2-131

No. 23 Louisville2-141Final

Sat, Sep 19 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky. · Crowd 50,199

No. 23 Louisville beat No. 16 SMU 41-31.

We had SMU favored. Louisville won.

Next: SMU beat Missouri State 34-24, Sat Sep 26

Next: Louisville lost to Wake Forest 30-27, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

Such a great effort by Jennings but a better one by Louisville defense. Gg

Q4 3:35 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Brown 53-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 35-31 (Q4, 10:02). Louisville went from 51% to 76% to win. Fans right then: “So we’re just gonna ignore that he missed that? Ok lmao” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisville a 33% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisville was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

A tight one: Louisville bottomed out at 43% and won.

SMU never had better than a 57% chance.

FinalLouisville 41-31 SMULouisville wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q3 14:17Brown 58-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 21-17Louisville 50% → 73% (+23)
2Q4 11:33Raphael 12-yd TD run, SMU goes ahead 31-28Louisville 68% → 46% (−22)
3Q4 10:02Brown 53-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 35-31Louisville 51% → 76% (+25)

The three plays that swung it

1Q3 14:17Brown 58-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 21-17SMU 50% → 27% (−23)
2Q4 11:33Raphael 12-yd TD run, SMU goes ahead 31-28SMU 32% → 54% (+22)
3Q4 10:02Brown 53-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 35-31SMU 49% → 24% (−25)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 3:41Fans criticize SMU's 4th down playcall and a soft unsportsmanlike penaltyKevin Jennings superpower is indeed extending plays. His kryptonite is not being able to decide when to extend plays or simply throw the ball away and live to fight another play.r/CFB game thread
Q4 14:02Officials flag Louisville for holding on Jennings pass, sparking fan outrage over the callWait, we didn't do anything on that replay?r/CFB game threadHonestly, ESPN, just leave the flag graphic up. It’ll save time.r/CFB game thread
Q4 7:25Louisville scores on Isaac Brown run but misses extra pointVery quiet missed patr/CFB game threadSo we’re just gonna ignore that he missed that? Ok lmaor/CFB game thread
Q4 3:35Officials overturn Jennings touchdown to touchback after fumble reviewQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 1:59Jennings throws interception to Beasley, sealing Louisville winTO THE GLUE FACTORY WITH YOUr/CFB game thread

Louisville’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Louisville -3), at 57% for Louisville (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Louisville or SMU flair (496 and 309); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Louisville’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Louisville scored on 6 of its 13 drives; SMU on 5 of its 13.

Louisville’s drives are teal, SMU’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From SMU’s side

SMU’s best moment: Raphael 12-yd TD run, SMU goes ahead 31-28 (Q4 11:33). It lifted SMU’s win chance by 22 points.

How SMU fans took it: “Good game cards.” r/CFB game thread

“This game has me feeling sick to my stomach.”

A Louisville fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The loudest stretch was the finish.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

7 lead changes.

What it cost

SMU’s chance to make the playoff fell from 36% to 23%.

Make the playoff

SMU · lost36% → ▼23%

Louisville · won4% → 4%

Win the conference

SMU · lost27% → ▲48%

Louisville · won3% → ▲17%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Louisville 41, SMU 31

Louisville covered −3 by 7. The total, 72, went over 57.5.

Team totals	SMU	Louisville
Total yards	479	442
Passing	24 of 35, 222 yds	14 of 23, 177 yds
Rushing	45 for 257 yds	37 for 265 yds
First downs	27	22
Third down	5 of 14	3 of 10
Fourth down	3 of 5	0 of 0
Turnovers	3	0
Penalties	8 for 82 yds	11 for 110 yds
Time of possession	31:56	28:04

SMU leaders

Passing Kevin Jennings 24 of 35, 222 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Kendrick Raphael 24 for 197 yds, 3 TD; Kevin Jennings 9 for 35 yds
Receiving Yamir Knight 7 for 70 yds, 1 TD; Yannick Smith 3 for 50 yds

Louisville leaders

Passing Lincoln Kienholz 14 of 23, 177 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Keyjuan Brown 10 for 163 yds, 2 TD; Isaac Brown 10 for 67 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Lawayne McCoy 4 for 62 yds, 1 TD; Tre Richardson 4 for 62 yds

No rain and calm

95° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the west-southwest, mostly across the field, gusts to 22

Warmer than every one of the 65 other games played at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 75°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 86°.

September game-day temperatures at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 10:02 left6:39 p.m.

SMU 31, Louisville 35 · Louisville 76% to win

no rain · wind 7 mph from the west-southwest · 93°

Brown 53-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 35-31

Measured at Louisville International airport, 2.5 miles away, and Louisville/bowman airport, 5.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

SMU · 2-0

Rated 15th in our preseason ratings, 12th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 56-10 vs UC Davis #102 of 668

won by 46 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 27-24 @ Florida State #84 of 668

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Last two games

Louisville · 1-1

Rated 61st in our preseason ratings, 56th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 59-13 vs Villanova #148 of 668

won by 46 as a 39.5-point favorite

L 38-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #11 of 668

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

Week by week

Louisville

Wk 1Lat Ole Miss38-41
Wk 2Wvs Villanova59-13

SMU

Wk 1Wat Florida State27-24
Wk 2Wvs UC Davis56-10

Power rating by week

SMU is rated 6.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: SMU’s passing EPA against Louisville, 68 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Louisville’s explosive plays against SMU’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · SMU defense, 33rd
SMU’s passing EPA against Louisville’s defense
SMU offense, 89th percentile · Louisville defense, 21st
Louisville’s EPA/play against SMU’s defense
Louisville offense, 93rd percentile · SMU defense, 52nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

SMULouisville

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

SMU leads the series 4-0

4 meetings since 1983 · SMU has won the last 4

2025SMU 38-6
2024SMU 34-27
1984SMU 41-7
1983SMU 24-6

Each line is Louisville’s chance to win through that meeting. Louisville is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

SMU fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (50th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Louisville favored by 3 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Louisville by 3, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Louisville.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 97° at kickoff.

SMU at Louisville · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville

97°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
48weather score, Harsh
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 80, against 48 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

noon: 52, Rough
1 pm: 49, Harsh
2 pm: 48, Harsh
3:30 pm: 48, Harsh (this game)
4 pm: 48, Harsh
6 pm: 64, Rough
7:30 pm: 80, Mixed
7:45 pm: 80, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Louisville is worth +5.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.

60% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (30-20 home, 16-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.8 at home vs. away over 95 games — outside the ±6.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 722 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Louisville10th0-0
SMU2nd1-0

Full ACC standings

No. 23 Louisville upsets No. 16 SMU 41-31