No. 18 Iowa routs Northern Iowa 55-0

Northern Iowa1-20
No. 18 Iowa3-055Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa · Crowd 69,250FS1

No. 18 Iowa routed Northern Iowa 55-0.

We had Iowa favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

I’m officially overconfident and primed for disappointment for Michigan.

Q2 10:06 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Iowa a 97% chance, and the closing betting line (Iowa was a 37.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Iowa led by 21 after the first quarter and by 42 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+55+55
FinalIowa 55-0 Northern IowaIowa wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4IowaWon55-0ScoresChatter2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute8 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute
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50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4IowaLowest 0%Lost0-55ScoresChatter2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute8 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4IowaLowest 0%Lost0-55ScoresChatter2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute8 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 6:55Brown throws a touchdown pass to Braeden Jackson, energizing Iowa fansWRs are catching TD and Michigan is losing to UTEP.. im not saying im confident about next week. But I feel "less terrible" about it haha.r/CFB game threadDamn, I know he was open but that was still a pretty throw from Hank. He won't ever be a star but my confidence is growing that he'll be at least average/competentr/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 14:55Iowa fans celebrate Wallace's interception of Dailey's passCan you please say it would be great for me to win the lottery?r/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 10:06Quoted at the top of the page.Obviously pleased with how the Hawks are playing, but it's painful to see UNI look this awful.r/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 0:46Iowa fans criticize Heck after McNeil scores to make it 42-0Nice 2 minute drill for Heck.r/CFB game thread
Iowa’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Iowa -37.5), at 99% for Iowa (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold.

Every drive

Iowa scored on 8 of its 13 drives; Northern Iowa on 0 of its 13.

Iowa’s drives are teal, Northern Iowa’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Iowa: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 75 yards out to 50PuntIowa: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 76 yards out to 45PuntIowa: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Interception, from 67 yards out to 79InterceptionQ2Iowa: Touchdown, from 37 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 75 yards out to 83PuntIowa: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntIowa: Punt, from 87 yards out to 82PuntNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 76 yards out to 47PuntIowa: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: End of half, from 75 yards out to 70End of halfQ3Northern Iowa: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntIowa: Punt, from 60 yards out to 55PuntNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 99 yards out to 78PuntIowa: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Interception, from 75 yards out to 45InterceptionIowa: Punt, from 71 yards out to 55PuntNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 82 yards out to 75PuntQ4Iowa: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntIowa: Punt, from 80 yards out to 48PuntNorthern Iowa: Turned over on downs, from 81 yards out to 44DownsIowa: End of game, from 56 yards out to 43End of game
“I’m officially overconfident and primed for disappointment for Michigan.”
An Iowa fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The biggest reaction came in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthIowa fansNorthern Iowa fansusual

Box score

Iowa 55, Northern Iowa 0

Iowa covered −37.5 by 17.5. The total, 55, went over 48.5.

Northern IowaIowaTotal yardsNorthern Iowa 155Iowa 640155640Passing yardsNorthern Iowa 102Iowa 218102218Rushing yardsNorthern Iowa 53Iowa 42253422First downsNorthern Iowa 9Iowa 32932TurnoversNorthern Iowa 2Iowa 020Time of possessionNorthern Iowa 27:45Iowa 32:1527:4532:15
Team totalsNorthern IowaIowa
Total yards155640
Passing14 of 33, 102 yds18 of 23, 218 yds
Rushing25 for 53 yds41 for 422 yds
First downs932
Third down3 of 153 of 8
Fourth down0 of 11 of 1
Turnovers20
Penalties4 for 35 yds7 for 83 yds
Time of possession27:4532:15

Northern Iowa leaders

  • Passing Jaxon Dailey 11 of 27, 91 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Caleb Kamara 7 for 21 yds; Ben Gordon 5 for 12 yds
  • Receiving Ayden Price 2 for 32 yds; Brady McCullough 1 for 19 yds

Iowa leaders

  • Passing Hank Brown 12 of 12, 153 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Xavier Williams 6 for 151 yds, 3 TD; Braeden Jackson 11 for 125 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Nathan Mcneil 3 for 37 yds; Evan James 3 for 35 yds

No rain through the game

75° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Kinnick Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Iowa favoredNorthern Iowa favored100%Win chanceIowaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Iowa favoredNorthern Iowa favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 15:00 left3:06 p.m.
Northern Iowa 0, Iowa 0 · Iowa 99% to win
no rain · 75°
Brown 16-yd pass to McNeil
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Iowa City airport, 1.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Northern Iowa · 1-1

Rated 176th in our preseason ratings, 169th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 56-14 vs Drake #226 of 668

won by 42 as an 11.5-point favorite

Northern Iowa won 56-14 vs Drake. Chance to win started at 82%, low 82%, high better than 99%.

Last two games

Iowa · 2-0

Rated 13th in our preseason ratings, 17th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

Week by week

Iowa

Wk 1: W 40-0 vs Northern Illinois▲40Northern IllinoisWk 2: W 16-13 vs Iowa State▲3Iowa State
  • Wk 1Wvs Northern Illinois40-0
  • Wk 2Wvs Iowa State16-13

Northern Iowa

Wk 1: L 24-34 at Eastern Washington▼10Eastern WashingtonWk 2: W 56-14 vs Drake▲42Drake
  • Wk 1Lat Eastern Washington24-34
  • Wk 2Wvs Drake56-14

Power rating by week

Iowa is rated 14.9 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

131-11Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2IowaNorthern Iowa

The series

Iowa leads the series 17-0

17 meetings since 1899 · Iowa has won the last 17

Iowa wonNorthern Iowa won1899: Iowa by 221900: Iowa by 681901: Iowa by 161902: Iowa by 211903: Iowa by 291904: Iowa by 61905: Iowa by 361912: Iowa by 281913: Iowa by 421914: Iowa by 951995: Iowa by 211997: Iowa by 662005: Iowa by 242009: Iowa by 12012: Iowa by 112014: Iowa by 82018: Iowa by 2418992018
  • 2018Iowa 38-14Iowa won 38-14 vs Northern Iowa. Chance to win started at 92%, low 85%, high better than 99%.
  • 2014Iowa 31-23
  • 2012Iowa 27-16
  • 2009Iowa 17-16
  • 2005Iowa 45-21

Each line is Iowa’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Iowa’s chances here.

50-50Model 97% · Line 100%Northern IowaIowa

Iowa favored by 37.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Iowa by 37.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Northern Iowa.

opened −40.5now −37.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 49.5now 48.5

Spread: −40.5 → −37.5 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 76° at kickoff.

Northern Iowa at Iowa · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City

  • 76°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 92weather score, Comfortable
  • Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Kinnick Stadium that day, a 6 pm or 6:30 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 92 at 2:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • 11 am: 99, Comfortable
  • 11:45 am: 98, Comfortable
  • 1 pm: 96, Comfortable
  • 2:30 pm: 92, Comfortable (this game)
  • 3:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
  • 6 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 6:30 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 7 pm: 90, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Iowa is worth +2.6 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile.

75% at home, 65% on the road against FBS opponents (39-13 home, 26-14 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.4 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 76 miles to get here.

Where next