For three years, Arch Manning was the most famous backup in football -- the name, the bloodline, the hype with no tape. Then he finally played, struggled, and figured it out. Now he's the Heisman favorite, and the patience is over.
6′4″ · 222 lb · New Orleans, LA · Isidore Newman
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #33 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026
5 TD · 2 INT · 7.8 per attempt
2 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 305 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, vs Texas State
The play that turned itSwung Texas from 26% to 75% to win.Texas at Mississippi State · 45-38
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
For three years, Arch Manning was the most famous backup in football -- the name, the bloodline, the hype with no tape. Then he finally played, struggled, and figured it out. Now he's the Heisman favorite, and the patience is over.
Aura™ · Him Watch
+39aura tax
60th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=708
— more hype than the tape.Buzz vs Tape
He's mentioned more than 99% of qualified QBs this season, but his production sits in just the 60th percentile — a gap of 39 points between volume and tape.
Also worth knowing:
“Arch Manning and that Texas offense THRIVE when they run tempo.”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
- Arch Manning’s mobility and off-script play
When Arch Manning scrambles, the result is often a big play, and even a long touchdown run.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jul 1, 2026–Jul 11, 2026 · via LonghornNation, On Texas Football
I am surprised at how unpolished Arch is though. I never bought into Arch looking like a Heisman candidate but he's still struggling with some of the basics.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 6, 2025 · via CFB
The grandson of Archie, nephew of Peyton and Eli, was the most-hyped recruit of his generation before he'd thrown a college pass -- and he sat, behind Quinn Ewers, while the legend grew on zero evidence. His 2025 debut as the starter was supposed to settle it; for five games it only complicated it. He averaged an interception a game, the offense sputtered, and the takes turned. Then the season flipped: over the final eight games he turned the ball over twice, and across his last six he was responsible for 20 touchdowns through the air, on the ground, and even on a catch.
That late surge is why he enters 2026 as a betting co-favorite -- by some books the favorite -- and why one analyst flatly said there's 'a 0% chance' he isn't in New York for the ceremony. The bar isn't a good season; it's a coronation. A Manning has never won a Heisman; Texas has produced only two. He'd close both gaps at once.
The forward question isn't talent -- the arm was never in doubt. It's whether the second half of 2025 was the real Arch and the first half was the learning curve, or the other way around. In an SEC where Texas is built to win it all, a full season at his ceiling makes him the story of the sport. Anything less reopens the only debate that's ever followed him: was the hype ever real?
His career
He arrived as a blue-chip recruit and played like one.
Manning is a big-bodied gunslinger who plays the position downhill -- a live arm that pushes it deep (88th-percentile average depth) and the juice to run for eight scores. But the 2025 tape is the rawness as much as the upside: he graded bottom-fifth in completion and ninth percentile in success rate, throwing his share of picks even as the flashes -- the explosive shots, a top-quarter touchdown rate -- hinted at the ceiling. The lightbulb came late: an interception a game through five weeks, then two turnovers across the final eight. That arc is the whole scouting report -- the tools are loud and the consistency is the project. On schedule, Sarkisian's pro-style attack has a weapon with no ceiling; when he forces it, the efficiency cratered. 2026 is about turning the back-half flashes into the baseline -- making the rare reps the every-down ones.
Written by our staff.
The role got bigger.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-SEC
All-SEC mention (2025)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Steve Sarkisian.
Season context · Team result + system
4 seasons under Steve Sarkisian, all balanced offenses — 37-8 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
Concern: pass yards (0th percentile).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
7.2239 of 75 QBsSack rate
4.5%36 of 75 QBsRarely sacked (36 of 75), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (39 of 75).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 67.2% completion on 64 attempts · 50% completion on 8 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 250 YDS/g, 2.5 TD/g, 8.3 YPA, 1.0 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Steve Sarkisian
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
Heisman market5.7%full market ›
In the mix to repeat All-SEC
Based on 2025: #8 of 16 SEC QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 24–23
vs Ohio State
195 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · QBR 83.0 · 24 rush yds (8 car)
A wire-to-wire battle — won by 1 at home.
With D. Smothers — 74 rush yds (21 car) · 2 TD · M. Chiumento — 40 AVG · 43 LONG · 3 NO
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 59-7vs Texas State | 20/27 | 305 | 4 | 1 | 11.3 | — | Season-high 305 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 24-23vs Ohio State | 23/37 | 195 | 1 | 1 | 5.3 | 83.0 | |
| Total | 43/64 | 500 | 5 | 2 | 8.3 | 83.0 |
Play style
Manning is a big-bodied gunslinger who plays the position downhill -- a live arm that pushes it deep (88th-percentile average depth) and the juice to run for eight scores. But the 2025 tape is the rawness as much as the upside: he graded bottom-fifth in completion and ninth percentile in success rate, throwing his share of picks even as the flashes -- the explosive shots, a top-quarter touchdown rate -- hinted at the ceiling. The lightbulb came late: an interception a game through five weeks, then two turnovers across the final eight. That arc is the whole scouting report -- the tools are loud and the consistency is the project. On schedule, Sarkisian's pro-style attack has a weapon with no ceiling; when he forces it, the efficiency cratered. 2026 is about turning the back-half flashes into the baseline -- making the rare reps the every-down ones.
Our classifier reads him the same way: beats you with his legs when the pocket breaks down.
2026 Outlook
Texas
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Texas · editorial
Returning around him
2026 Award watch
Texas · Last season: 10-3 (AP #14) · Talent rank #2 · 2026 recruiting class #7
Player DNA
Dangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Desmond Ridder’s 2021 season.
Matches Desmond on
Differs from Desmond on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Amari Odom’s path through Kennesaw State.
Matches Amari on
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Garrett Shrader's junior season at Syracuse (2022).
Matches Garrett on
Differs from Garrett on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#3 in market ▼ from #2 · 5 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #6 — top-10 conversation.
A fourth-year quarterback who has appeared in 25 games with 15 starts ... 12-3 as a starter ... 2026 Phil Steele preseason First-Team SEC selection ... 2026 Phil Steele preseason Second-Team All-America selection ... named to the Davey O'Brien Award's Postseason Great 8 (Jan. 26) ... added as a f...