Carl Chester

Senior wide receiver for Southern Miss. 2025: 30 catches, 550 receiving yards, 6 TD.

WR · Southern Miss · Sr. · #7

6′3″ · 200 lb · Manor, TX

CFB Index 52 · #205 of 485 WRsHigh confidenceReturning to Southern Miss for 2026

Next upSat Sep 19 · 7 pm ETvs UConnM. M. Roberts StadiumUConn by 3

How he plays

Beats you over the top.

Yards / catch: 97th percentile.

The full scouting read

The numbers

550

receiving yards · 2025

30 catches · 6 TD · 18.3 per catch

The play that turned itSwung Southern Miss from 8% to 50% to win.Troy at Southern Miss · 28-18

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 wide receiver for Southern Miss. 2025: 30 catches, 550 receiving yards, 6 TD.

Signed as a 3-star recruit to Manor in 2021.
Transferred from Marshall to Southern Miss in 2025.

His career, year by year

Carl Chester

WR · Southern Miss · Sr · #7

Beats you over the top. Carl Chester has played for two head coaches across three seasons and three programs. The receipt: 128 rec yds, 5 receptions against South Alabama — Week 13, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2023Tulsa4-8HC: Kevin Wilson · Run-heavy

2024Marshall10-3HC: Charles Huff · Run-leaning

2025Southern Miss7-6HC: Charles Huff · Balanced

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

52Rotational starter #205 of 485?

High confidence10 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: yards / catch (97th percentile). Strength: explosive rate (91st percentile). Concern: catch rate (4th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Yards / catch#21 / 798 · 97th pct

18.2

Explosive rate#73 / 798 · 91st pct

18.9%

EPA / target#247 / 798 · 69th pct

0.54

TD rate#253 / 798 · 68th pct

3.8%

Catch rate#770 / 798 · 4th pct

49.1%

Box-score rates (5)

Yards / catch#26 / 558 · 95th pct

18.3

Rec TDs#56 / 558 · 87th pct

Rec yards#178 / 558 · 68th pct

550

Long catch#217 / 558 · 60th pct

Receptions#282 / 558 · 48th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / target

96th → 69th percentile

Explosive rate

92nd → 91st percentile

Catch rate

34th → 4th percentile

TD rate

73rd → 68th percentile

Yards / catch

86th → 97th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Situational

Situational · Share of own targets (PBP, 2025)

Third-down role

30%16 of his 53 targets came on third down · Receiver median is 24%

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Home7g	2.3	31.1	13.2	0.4
Road5g	2.8	66.4	23.1	0.6

First half vs Second half

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	2.7	47.5	17.8	0.3
Weeks 8+6g	2.3	44.2	16.9	0.7

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Blake Anderson

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Rotational

Earning real snaps in the rotation without a starting job.

our read surprisingly productive for a receiver with no award recognition yet — top-4% yards per catch, top-4% TD rate.2025 profile

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

52 · #205 of 485 WRs

Three-star recruit. Now #205 at the position.

2026 outlook

Outside shot for All-Sun Belt

Based on 2025: #21 of 51 Sun Belt WRs

How the All-Sun Belt estimate is computed

15% estimated, 95% confidence interval 13–17%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

One of 52 players who were elite at two different things in 2025. See the others ›

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Southern Miss	30	550	18.3	6	--
2024	Marshall	20	342	17.1	3	--
2023	Tulsa	22	401	18.2	1	--
Career		72	1,293	18.0	10	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2025

W 38–20

vs Jackson State

3 rec · 40 yds

With B. Braxton — 214 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 43.5 · 20 rush yds (10 car) · J. Murley — 39 AVG · 2 IN 20 · 42 LONG

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 14 · Troy · 3&18 · Q3 · EPA +4.17(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete deep left to #7 C.Chester caught at TROY25, for 30 yards to the TROY25 (#5 K.Levine), 1ST DOWN
Week 13 · South Alabama · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.01(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete deep left to #7 C.Chester caught at USA12, for 52 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:28, 1ST DOWN #40 C.Wilbanks kick attempt good (H: #17 K.McCormick, LS: #46 L.Beard)
Week 13 · South Alabama · 2&10 · Q4 · EPA +3.93(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete deep middle to #7 C.Chester caught at USA37, for 44 yards to the USA36 (#16 B.Dillard), 1ST DOWN
Week 4 · Louisiana Tech · 3&4 · Q1 · EPA +3.80Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 39 yds to the LT 30 for a 1ST down
Week 13 · South Alabama · 4&5 · Q4 · EPA +3.25(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete short left to #7 C.Chester caught at USA00, for 11 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:32, 1ST DOWN #40 C.Wilbanks kick attempt good (H: #17 K.McCormick, LS: #46 L.Beard)
Week 4 · Louisiana Tech · 2&4 · Q2 · EPA +3.20Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 42 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST down
Week 2 · Jackson State · 3&2 · Q4 · EPA +2.88Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 23 yds to the JKST 44 for a 1ST down Jackson State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jeremiah Williams) declined for a 1ST down
Week 7 · Georgia Southern · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.81Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 30 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
Week 5 · Jacksonville State · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +2.54Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 13 yds for a TD Jacksonville State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Caleb Nix) declined (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
Week 14 · Troy · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +2.51(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete short right to #7 C.Chester caught at TROY00, for 10 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:27, 1ST DOWN #1 B.Braxton pass attempt Successful #6 M.Davis pass attempt Successful

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	L 17-34vs Mississippi State	5	52	10.4	0	22
Wk 2	W 38-20vs Jackson State	3	40	13.3	0	23
Wk 4	L 20-30@ Louisiana Tech	4	118	29.5	0	42
Wk 5	W 42-25vs Jacksonville State	1	13	13.0	1	13
Wk 7	W 38-35@ Georgia Southern	2	43	21.5	1	30
Wk 8	W 22-10@ Louisiana	2	8	4.0	0	5
Wk 9	W 49-21vs UL Monroe	1	8	8.0	1	8
Wk 11	W 27-21@ Arkansas State	1	35	35.0	0	35
Wk 12	L 14-41vs Texas State	1	10	10.0	0	10
Wk 13	L 35-42@ South Alabama	5	128	25.6	2	52	Season-high 128 yds
Wk 14	L 18-28vs Troy	4	76	19.0	1	30
Bowl	L 16-27vs Western Kentucky	1	19	19.0	0	19
Total		30	550	17.4	6	52