Three programs in three seasons for a player rated the No. 8 prospect in the 2023 class is not the career arc anyone drew up on signing day. But the play-by-play data on Jackson Arnold tells a more interesting story than the box score: the legs are genuinely elite, and the arm just hasn't come along for the ride yet. Dan Mullen and UNLV are the next chapter -- and three games in, the plot has swung hard: a 291-yard three-touchdown debut in a loss to Memphis, a 21-6 road win at Hawai'i carried by his legs, then a 44-6 rout at North Texas in which nothing worked.
6′1″ · 220 lb · Denton, TX
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #109 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026
2 TD · 0 INT · 7.3 per attempt
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 291 pass yds, 2 TD, 54 rush yds, vs Memphis
The play that turned itSwung Auburn from 5% to 43% to win.Auburn at Texas A&M · 16-10
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Three programs in three seasons for a player rated the No. 8 prospect in the 2023 class is not the career arc anyone drew up on signing day. But the play-by-play data on Jackson Arnold tells a more interesting story than the box score: the legs are genuinely elite, and the arm just hasn't come along for the ride yet. Dan Mullen and UNLV are the next chapter -- and three games in, the plot has swung hard: a 291-yard three-touchdown debut in a loss to Memphis, a 21-6 road win at Hawai'i carried by his legs, then a 44-6 rout at North Texas in which nothing worked.
How he plays
Extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
Interception rate: 92nd percentile.
The full scouting readAura™ · Him Watch
+48aura tax
20th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=115
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
The wider college football conversation reads him warmer than his own fans do — a gap of 36.8 points in belief.
It is actually incredible that the moment Jackson Arnold came under center, the offensive production ground to a halt. Dude is probably the worst QB on the roster
Also worth knowing:
“Find someone who loves a good sack like Jackson Arnold”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Your giants at OL against our DL will tell the tale of how the game will go. If we can shut down your running game and make Arnold throw, it will be a long day.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 13, 2025 · via CFB
Arnold's Auburn tape in 2025 is a study in contradictions. His 94th-percentile interception rate says he's disciplined — only nine QBs in the country were more careful with the football on a per-attempt basis. His 94th-percentile EPA per carry says he punishes defenses with his legs, finishing runs (81st-percentile rushing TD rate) and occasionally breaking one (75th-percentile explosive run rate). Those are legitimately NFL-caliber rushing numbers for a quarterback.
The passing game is a different reel. A 16th-percentile EPA per dropback, an 11th-percentile explosive pass rate, and a 2nd-percentile sack rate — meaning he was getting sacked on over 12% of dropbacks, dead last in the country — paint a picture of a passer who hasn't found comfort in a pro-style pocket. The Auburn offensive system wasn't kind to him, but the numbers were hard enough that he lost the starting job.
Now he lands at UNLV under Dan Mullen, who has one of the better track records in the sport of building mobile quarterbacks into complete starters. If Mullen can simplify Arnold's reads, widen the run-pass option menu, and rebuild his pocket confidence in a lighter Mountain West schedule, 2026 could be the season Arnold finally matches his recruiting pedigree. The talent is there. The question is whether the right system has finally found him.
First evidence, 2026: in the opener against Memphis, the profile inverted. The arm carried the offense -- 25-of-37 for 291 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, plus a rushing score, every point UNLV put on the board -- while the ground game was bottled at 2.6 a carry on 21 attempts. One game is one game, and the Rebels lost it 27-21 by giving up the last thirteen points.
The next two weeks argued both sides of the profile again. At Hawai'i, the passing reverted to modest (8-of-18, 116 yards, no touchdowns) but the legs carried the offense to a 21-6 win -- 89 yards and two rushing touchdowns on 16 carries, UNLV's first win of the season. Then North Texas: 18-of-27 for 194 yards but no touchdowns through the air, and the legs vanished, 14 carries for -11 yards behind a line that couldn't hold up. A 44-6 loss, the widest margin of Mullen's UNLV tenure. Three games in, Arnold has carried the offense with his arm (Memphis), carried it with his legs (Hawai'i), and been overwhelmed on both fronts at once (North Texas) -- the swings are the story now as much as the ceiling is.
His career
He arrived as a blue-chip recruit and played like one.
Arnold is a runner who happens to also throw. His 89th-percentile EPA per carry and 81st-percentile rushing TD rate are not flukes — he picks his lanes quickly and he finishes. The 94th-percentile interception rate signals real processing; he knows when to pull it down. What he hasn't solved is the drop-back game: his explosive pass rate sits at the 11th percentile, his EPA per dropback at the 16th, and his sack rate was the second worst in the country (2nd percentile) — nearly one in eight dropbacks ended with him on the ground. The profile is less dual-threat QB than it is a running back with a live arm waiting for a system that believes in him.
Written by our staff.
Career arc
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Barry Odom → Dan Mullen. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to UNLV
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: interception rate (92nd percentile). Strength: rush yards (96th percentile). Concern: sack rate (4th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
6.0452 of 75 QBsSack rate
10.9%75 of 75 QBsSacked on 10.9% of dropbacks (75 of 75) and Adjusted ANY/A trails the field (52 of 75).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 60.7% completion on 84 attempts · 44% completion on 9 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home1g | 291 | 2.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 155 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 200 | 0.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dan Mullen
Pass share
41.6%
87 pass / 122 run
Plays / game
69.7
3 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 21–6
at Hawai'i
116 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT · QBR 81.5 · 89 rush yds (16 car) · 2 TD
With M. Choules — 45 AVG · 2 IN 20 · 64 LONG · J. Thomas — 143 rush yds (20 car) · 1 TD
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 21-27vs Memphis | 25/37 | 291 | 2 | 0 | 7.9 | 70.6 | Season-high 291 yds |
| Wk 1 | W 21-6@ Hawai'i | 8/18 | 116 | 0 | 0 | 6.4 | 81.5 | Season-high 291 yds |
| Wk 2 | L 6-44@ North Texas | 18/27 | 194 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 | 33.9 | |
| Total | 51/82 | 601 | 2 | 0 | 7.2 | 62.0 |
Play style
Arnold is a runner who happens to also throw. His 89th-percentile EPA per carry and 81st-percentile rushing TD rate are not flukes — he picks his lanes quickly and he finishes. The 94th-percentile interception rate signals real processing; he knows when to pull it down. What he hasn't solved is the drop-back game: his explosive pass rate sits at the 11th percentile, his EPA per dropback at the 16th, and his sack rate was the second worst in the country (2nd percentile) — nearly one in eight dropbacks ended with him on the ground. The profile is less dual-threat QB than it is a running back with a live arm waiting for a system that believes in him.
Our classifier reads him the same way: extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
Player DNA
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Tai Lavatai’s 2023 season.
Matches Tai on
Differs from Tai on
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Davis Warren’s path through Stanford.
Matches Davis on
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Brett Gabbert's senior season at Miami (OH) (2022).
Matches Brett on
Differs from Brett on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #41 this season.