Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 27-34@ Oregon | 15/29 | 181 | 3 | 0 | 6.2 | — | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | W 38-20vs Memphis | 17/28 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 | 55.0 | Season-high 221 yds |
| Total | 32/57 | 402 | 4 | 0 | 7.1 | 55.0 |
#4
Maddux Madsen
Maddux Madsen does not aim for underneath completions. He aims for the end zone and the 20-yard marker, and Boise State's third straight Mountain West title says that philosophy works. The 2026 question is whether a rebuilt receiving corps can keep pace with a quarterback who throws the ball down the field by design.
5′10″ · 207 lb · American Fork, UT · American Fork HS
CFB Index 46 · #77 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceReturning to Boise State for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
402
passing yards · 2026
4 TD · 0 INT · 7.1 per attempt
2 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 181 pass yds, 3 TD, 5 rush yds, at Oregon
The play that turned itSwung UCF from 43% to 79% to win.UCF at Boise State · 18-16
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Maddux Madsen does not aim for underneath completions. He aims for the end zone and the 20-yard marker, and Boise State's third straight Mountain West title says that philosophy works. The 2026 question is whether a rebuilt receiving corps can keep pace with a quarterback who throws the ball down the field by design.
- Signed as a 3-star recruit to Boise State in 2022.
Aura™ · Him Watch
Underrated
-50aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 17th percentile of QBs; the tape says
67th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=13
— the tape outruns the hype.Aura — fan perception17th pctl
Production — on-field67th pctl
n=13 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = our passing-value metric (wEPA)
Buzz vs Tape
Attention percentile: 18th · Production percentile: 68th
His production sits in the 68th percentile among qualified QBs this season, well ahead of 18th-percentile attention — a gap of 50 points between tape and volume.
18thattention percentile · vs QBs
68thproduction percentile · vs QBs
In Their Words
302 windows · 2026 fan posts
maddux×1889.3boise×124.6danielson×2833.9credit×85.9oregon×12.2spencer×20.8give×17.7lot×9.7
“I don’t hate the kid, but he ain’t good either Maddux Madsen for QB”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
The story
Madsen's 2025 stat line looks modest on the surface — 2,333 yards, 58.3 percent completions, 18 touchdowns, 9 interceptions — but the play-by-play context reframes it. His average depth of target sits at the 78th percentile nationally, and his explosive pass rate (completions of 15-plus yards) ranks 79th. He is not a timing-rhythm quarterback padding completion percentages on three-yard hitches. Every time he drops back he is asking his receivers to beat somebody.
That approach inflates his touchdown rate to the 71st percentile and his EPA per dropback to the 67th — real production, generated by taking shots. The cost is visible: a 31st-percentile completion percentage and a 14th-percentile interception rate. Those are not anomalies to explain away; they are the predictable tradeoff of a vertically-oriented offense. Madsen's sack rate (64th percentile) suggests he moves on quickly when the shot isn't there, which limits the damage on any given play.
The 2026 stakes are concrete. Boise State's top four pass-catchers from 2025 all moved on, leaving Madsen to build chemistry with an essentially new supporting cast. If the Broncos can develop a genuine go-to downfield target, the infrastructure is already in place for a Davey O'Brien watch-list conversation. If the receiver room sputters, the interception rate becomes the loudest number on the page.
His career
Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.
Madsen plays like a quarterback who has decided that short completions are someone else's job. His 78th-percentile average depth of target and 87th-percentile explosive pass rate are not byproducts of receiver separation — they are the plan. He takes the shot, finishes at a 87th-percentile touchdown rate when drives reach the red zone, and limits negative plays with a 64th-percentile sack rate. The completion percentage (31st percentile) and interception rate (20th percentile) are the honest price of that scheme. He is not a game-manager; he is a vertical-first signal-caller who needs talent around him to function at his ceiling.
Written by our staff.
2022
- Signed with Boise State3-star out of American Fork
202414 games
The role got bigger.
- All-Mountain Westhonorable_mention
202511 games
- All-Mountain West
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Boise State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-MOUNTAIN WEST
All-Mountain West mention (2025)
🎓
FRESHMAN HONORS
Freshman recognition (2023)
2 mention(s)
Coaching lineage · 2022–2026
2 coaches2022
Boise State
Coaching transition mid-career: Andy Avalos → Spencer Danielson. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
2026 snapshot
Season context · Team result + system
2022Boise State10-4HC: Andy Avalos · Run-leaning
2023Boise State8-6HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-heavy
2024Boise State12-2HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-leaning
2025Boise State9-5HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-leaning
2026Boise State1-1HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-leaning
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidence
Elite: interceptions (92nd percentile). Concern: pass yards (0th percentile).
Box-score rates (7)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Passing profile
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
57 of 57 attempts matched to play-by-play
55 of 57 attempts charted for true throw depth
Adjusted ANY/A
7.7828 of 75 QBsSack rate
5.0%38 of 75 QBsRarely sacked (38 of 75 QBs) and still 28 of 75 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
13% of attempts (7)
57%comp
Air -3.9 · YAC 8.2 avg
Short · 0–9 air yds
56% of attempts (31)
55%comp
Air 3.9 · YAC 5.1 avg
Middle · 10–19 air yds
24% of attempts (13)
62%comp
Air 14.5 · YAC 5.1 avg
Deep · 20+ air yds
7% of attempts (4)
25%comp
Air 24.5 · YAC 8.0 avg
Overall 56.1% completion on 57 attempts · 56% of attempts thrown 0–9 air yds.
Splits & context
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 201 YDS/g, 2.0 TD/g, 7.1 YPA, 0.0 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Spencer Danielson
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
Backup
On the two-deep and pushing for snaps.
Recognition
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
2026 outlook
In the mix for All-Pac-12
Based on 2025: #6 of 14 Mountain West QBs — his program moves to the Pac-12 for 2026
How the All-Pac-12 estimate is computed
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player. The base rate was measured on players who stayed in the same conference; this estimate is not adjusted for the move to the Pac-12.
Career stats
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Boise State | 32 | 57 | 56.1% | 402 | 7.1 | 4 | 0 | 138.5 | 53 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Boise State | 176 | 302 | 58.3% | 2,333 | 7.7 | 18 | 9 | 136.9 | 52 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Boise State | 247 | 396 | 62.4% | 3,018 | 7.6 | 23 | 6 | 142.5 | 79 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Boise State | 81 | 132 | 61.4% | 1,191 | 9.0 | 9 | 3 | 155.1 | 67 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Boise State | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 165.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 539 | 891 | 60.5% | 6,987 | 7.8 | 54 | 18 | 142.3 | 67 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Boise State | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 1 | -- |
| 2025 | Boise State | 57 | 81 | 1.4 | 4 | -- |
| 2024 | Boise State | 57 | 221 | 3.9 | 5 | -- |
| 2023 | Boise State | 33 | 120 | 3.6 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | Boise State | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 158 | 438 | 2.8 | 12 | -- |
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 38–20
vs Memphis
Signature plays
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
- Week 2 · Memphis · 4&6 · Q2 · EPA +5.32Akeem Wright 37 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)
- Week 2 · Memphis · 3&7 · Q3 · EPA +3.71(00:31) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #5 A.Wright caught at BOI25, for 40 yards to the MEM45 (#0 I.Foster), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Oregon · 3&9 · Q1 · EPA +3.15(13:52) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BSU43, for 23 yards to the BSU49 (#15 C.Williams IV; #4 B.Finney), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Oregon · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.09Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #26 S.Gaines caught at ORE33, for 38 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:14, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow)
- Week 1 · Oregon · 4&3 · Q3 · EPA +3.01Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at ORE00, for 7 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:20, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow)
- Week 1 · Oregon · 2&7 · Q1 · EPA +2.67Cam Bates 13 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)
- Week 2 · Memphis · 2&9 · Q4 · EPA +2.50(13:45) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete deep right to #19 R.Jones caught at MEM09, for 32 yards to the MEM01 (#3 D.Smith), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - ""
- Week 1 · Oregon · 4&1 · Q2 · EPA +2.04#4 M.Madsen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE42 (#44 T.Tuioti; #9 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Oregon · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +1.98#4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #19 R.Jones caught at BSU42, for 22 yards to the BSU47 (#4 B.Finney), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Memphis · 3&9 · Q1 · EPA +1.93(13:59) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #3 C.Bates caught at BOI34, for 10 yards to the BOI36 (#0 I.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Game log
How he plays
Play style
Madsen plays like a quarterback who has decided that short completions are someone else's job. His 78th-percentile average depth of target and 87th-percentile explosive pass rate are not byproducts of receiver separation — they are the plan. He takes the shot, finishes at a 87th-percentile touchdown rate when drives reach the red zone, and limits negative plays with a 64th-percentile sack rate. The completion percentage (31st percentile) and interception rate (20th percentile) are the honest price of that scheme. He is not a game-manager; he is a vertical-first signal-caller who needs talent around him to function at his ceiling.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
2026 Outlook
Boise State
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Boise State · editorial
Returning around him
- 66% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 1 Boise State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (11 in / 19 out)
2026 Award watch
- Davey O'Brien
- Heisman Watch
Boise State · Last season: 9-5 (AP #25) · Talent rank #74 · 2026 recruiting class #51
DNA match
Player DNA
Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Daniel Richardson’s 2021 season.
65%match
Matches Daniel on
Completion %
Differs from Daniel on
Class year (higher)
Rush yards / carry (higher)
Rush usage (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Shai Werts’s path through Georgia Southern.
78%match
Matches Shai on
Completion %
Yards per attempt
Height
Differs from Shai on
Recruiting rating (higher)
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Brett Gabbert's senior season at Miami (OH) (2023).
50%match
All-MAC
Differs from Brett on
Class year (lower)
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
Height (lower)
Player DNA
Players who play like Maddux Madsen
Heisman trajectory
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peak #32
Peaked at #32 this season.
Background
CAREER HONORS Maxwell Award Preseason Watch List (2026) Walter Camp Award Preseason Watch List (2026) Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award Preseason Watch List (2026) Allstate Wuerffel Trophy Preseason Watch List (2026) Allstate AFCA Good Hands Team Nominee (2026) Shiners Children’s East-West Bowl 1000...
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology