Clemson 28-20 North Carolina (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: North Carolina · Clemson

North Carolina2-120

Clemson2-128Final

Sat, Sep 19 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC), Clemson, S.C. · Crowd 78,332

Clemson beat North Carolina 28-20.

We had Clemson favored. It won.

Next: North Carolina lost to Notre Dame 37-26, Sat Oct 3

Next: Clemson beat California 24-10, Fri Sep 25

Top comment in the game thread

3 straight weather delays can only mean one thing. Dabo's deity has had enough with being associated with how we play football these days

Q4 10:43 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Edwards incomplete to Thurman, turnover on downs (Q4, 1:54). Clemson went from 63% to 79% to win. Fans right then: “That touchdown was not smart but I still enjoyed it.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Clemson an 86% chance, and the closing betting line (Clemson was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

Clemson came back from 14 down, at one point just a 12% chance in the second quarter.

North Carolina led by 14, was as high as 88% in the second quarter, and still lost.

FinalClemson 28-20 North CarolinaClemson wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 5:01Davidson 8-yd TD run, Clemson goes ahead 21-20Clemson 48% → 63% (+15)
2Q4 1:544th and 1Edwards incomplete to Thurman, turnover on downsClemson 63% → 79% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 5:01Davidson 8-yd TD run, Clemson goes ahead 21-20North Carolina 52% → 37% (−15)
2Q4 1:544th and 1Edwards incomplete to Thurman, turnover on downsNorth Carolina 37% → 21% (−16)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 1:36Green fumbles, UNC recovers as fans declare Dabo cookedIt won’t happen until the end of the season but I just watched Dabo get fired with that fumble.r/CFB game thread
Q2 8:36Fans boo Dabo Swinney as Clemson goes three and outDabo take your money and go be a preacher somewhere bro. We all know that’s what you want to do anyway.r/CFB game threadThank you Dabo for giving Alabama competition during Sabans reign of terror but its over old man god bless yar/CFB game thread
Q3 11:50Reynolds throws interception, then Hauser kicks field goal to make it 17-9These fans won't be booing when Nolan Hauser gets an invite to the Heisman ceremonyr/CFB game threadClemson is going to claw back into this game 1 FG at a time.r/CFB game thread
Q3 4:43Fans debate the upheld touchdown call and Chad Morris's failed two-point conversion attemptReally? That’s your 2 point call? Chad Morris is lost in the sauce.r/CFB game threadIt’s not confirmed, it’s upheld dumbassr/CFB game thread
Q4 10:43Fans mock the broadcast camera panning to clear blue skies during a weather delayQuoted at the top of the page.Pans to show blue skiesr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:00Fans rip Clemson for scoring instead of taking a knee with 1:00 leftThat touchdown was not smart but I still enjoyed it.r/CFB game thread

Clemson’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Clemson -3), at 64% for Clemson (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Clemson or North Carolina flair (1,107 and 552); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

The dashed blue line marks where play stopped for 2 hours 29 minutes in the fourth quarter. Thunder was reported at Clemson/oconee County airport (2.5 miles away) from 4:06 p.m. to 4:16 p.m., around the stoppage.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Clemson’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Clemson scored on 6 of its 13 drives; North Carolina on 4 of its 12.

Clemson’s drives are teal, North Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From North Carolina’s side

North Carolina’s best moment: Edwards 15-yd TD pass to Hall, North Carolina leads 14-3 (Q1 2:05). It lifted North Carolina’s win chance by 13 points.

How North Carolina fans took it: “I have a better chance with Sydney Sweeney then Edwards Jr has throwing a pass more then 10 yards” r/CFB game thread

“dude coulda tucked it and *walked* for the 1st down”

A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

North Carolina fans

edwards“I have a better chance with Sydney Sweeney then Edwards Jr has throwing a pass more then 10 yards”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, back, now, field.

What it cost

Clemson’s chance to make the playoff rose from 2% to 4%.

Make the playoff

North Carolina · lost1% → ▼0%

Clemson · won2% → ▲4%

Win the conference

North Carolina · lost0% → 0%

Clemson · won2% → ▲3%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Clemson 28, North Carolina 20

Clemson covered −3 by 5. The total, 48, went over 44.5.

Team totals	North Carolina	Clemson
Total yards	349	401
Passing	13 of 30, 135 yds	20 of 30, 215 yds
Rushing	39 for 214 yds	36 for 186 yds
First downs	20	20
Third down	5 of 14	5 of 13
Fourth down	1 of 2	1 of 1
Turnovers	2	2
Penalties	5 for 35 yds	4 for 25 yds
Time of possession	33:32	26:28

North Carolina leaders

Passing Billy Edwards 13 of 30, 135 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Benjamin Hall 18 for 130 yds; Demon June 12 for 57 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jordan Shipp 6 for 68 yds; Jelani Thurman 3 for 18 yds

Clemson leaders

Passing Tait Reynolds 20 of 29, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Gideon Davidson 16 for 105 yds, 1 TD; Tyler Brown 1 for 34 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Bryant Wesco Jr. 5 for 77 yds; T.J. Moore 7 for 38 yds

Play stopped for 149 minutes in the fourth quarter

84° at kickoff · no rain during play; another 0.4 in fell while play was stopped · wind 7 mph from the northeast, gusts to 32

A 32 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 96% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Thunder was reported at Clemson/oconee County airport (2.5 miles away) from 4:06 p.m. to 4:16 p.m., around the stoppage.

The usual here around this date is 74°, with about 7 in 10 games between 65° and 83°.

September game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 8:31 left2:58 p.m.

North Carolina 17, Clemson 15 · Clemson 29% to win

During the stoppage: rain not reported · wind 8 mph, gusts to 32 · 79°

The clock stopped here for 149 minutes (2:58 p.m. to 5:27 p.m.), and thunder was reported at Clemson/oconee County airport.

June 1-yd run

Measured at Clemson/oconee County airport, 2.5 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

North Carolina · 2-0

Rated 136th in our preseason ratings, 112th now, up 24 spots.

Two straight wins, including a 5-point win over TCU as a 7.5-point underdog.

W 35-3 vs East Tennessee State #160 of 668

won by 32 as a 36.5-point favorite

W 15-10 @ TCU #53 of 668

won by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog

Last two games

Clemson · 1-1

Rated 11th in our preseason ratings, 19th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 22-7 vs Georgia Southern #85 of 668

won by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite

L 10-51 @ LSUTop 25 #27 of 668

lost by 41 as a 10-point underdog

Week by week

Clemson

Wk 1Lat LSU10-51
Wk 2Wvs Georgia Southern22-7

North Carolina

Wk 1Wat TCU15-10
Wk 2Wvs East Tennessee State35-3

Power rating by week

Clemson is rated 11.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Clemson’s explosive plays against North Carolina, 80 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Clemson’s explosive plays against North Carolina’s defense
Clemson offense, 17th percentile · North Carolina defense, 97th
Clemson’s EPA/play against North Carolina’s defense
Clemson offense, 8th percentile · North Carolina defense, 66th
Clemson’s passing EPA against North Carolina’s defense
Clemson offense, 5th percentile · North Carolina defense, 63rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

North CarolinaClemson

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Clemson leads the series 40-18-1

59 meetings since 1903 · Clemson has won the last 7

2025Clemson 38-10
2023Clemson 31-20
2022 · neutral siteClemson 39-10
2019Clemson 21-20
2015 · neutral siteClemson 45-37

Each line is Clemson’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

North Carolina fans are in a better mood than Clemson fans (64th vs 42nd among FBS fanbases), even with Clemson favored.

Clemson favored by 3 · Total 44.5

How games like this usually go

Clemson by 3, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 6.5 points toward North Carolina.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 93° at kickoff.

North Carolina at Clemson · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Memorial Stadium, Clemson

93°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
47weather score, Harsh
Roughestof the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Memorial Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 47 at noon.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

noon: 47, Harsh (this game)
1 pm: 53, Rough
2 pm: 56, Rough
3:30 pm: 63, Rough
4 pm: 65, Rough
6 pm: 97, Comfortable
7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
7:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Clemson is worth +1.7 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile.

82% at home, 75% on the road against FBS opponents (40-9 home, 30-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.0 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 230 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Clemson 39, North Carolina 10Subway ACC Championship · Dec 3, 2022

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Clemson9th0-0
North Carolina7th0-0

Full ACC standings

Clemson beats North Carolina 28-20