Fresno State 38-24 Rice (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Rice · Fresno State

Rice1-324

Fresno State3-138Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, Calif. · Crowd 39,001

Fresno State beat Rice 38-24.

We had Fresno State favored. It won.

Next: Rice lost to UTSA 16-14, Sat Oct 3

Next: Fresno State beat Washington State 26-6, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Grice 88-yd TD run, Rice goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 5:45). Fresno State went from 81% to 65% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Fresno State an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Fresno State was a 12.5-point favorite) put it at 84%.

Fresno State won by 14, after dipping to 49% in the second quarter.

Rice never had better than a 51% chance.

88-yard TD run

Rice · Q1 5:45

FinalFresno State 38-24 RiceFresno State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 5:45Grice 88-yd TD run, Rice goes ahead 7-0Fresno State 81% → 65% (−16)
2Q2 1:04Mandal 28-yd TD pass to McClain, ties it 14-14Fresno State 65% → 77% (+12)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 5:45Grice 88-yd TD run, Rice goes ahead 7-0Rice 19% → 35% (+16)
2Q2 1:04Mandal 28-yd TD pass to McClain, ties it 14-14Rice 35% → 23% (−12)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 1:45Jo Chavez hits Jayden Mandal, who fumbles but recovers for Fresno StateHoly fuck, what a hit. Jo Chavez on Jayden Mandalr/CFB game thread

Fresno State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Fresno State -12.5), at 88% for Fresno State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Fresno State or Rice flair (76 and 29); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Fresno State scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Rice on 4 of its 10.

Fresno State’s drives are teal, Rice’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Rice’s side

Rice’s best moment: Grice 88-yd TD run, Rice goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 5:45). It lifted Rice’s win chance by 16 points.

How Rice fans took it: “no but...the traffic...and the farmlands...with...the traffic...” r/CFB game thread

“I wish they would talk about the anime waifu flag instead of just showing it.”

A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Busy

The loudest stretch came in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

Fresno State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 8% to 9%.

Make the playoff

Rice · lost0% → 0%

Fresno State · won8% → ▲9%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Fresno State 38, Rice 24

Fresno State covered −12.5 by 1.5. The total, 62, went over 43.5.

Team totals	Rice	Fresno State
Total yards	463	459
Passing	8 of 17, 119 yds	22 of 34, 210 yds
Rushing	46 for 344 yds	34 for 249 yds
First downs	22	23
Third down	4 of 11	6 of 13
Fourth down	1 of 2	1 of 2
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	4 for 25 yds	2 for 15 yds
Time of possession	27:22	32:38

Rice leaders

Passing Jacurri Brown 8 of 17, 119 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jacurri Brown 19 for 141 yds, 1 TD; Ben Grice 7 for 109 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Max Mosey 1 for 40 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Clark 3 for 39 yds

Fresno State leaders

Passing Jayden Mandal 22 of 34, 210 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Rayshon Luke 11 for 167 yds, 1 TD; Jayden Mandal 5 for 57 yds
Receiving Josiah Freeman 6 for 66 yds, 1 TD; Jahlil McClain 3 for 39 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

87° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Valley Children's Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 5:45 left7:31 p.m.

Rice 7, Fresno State 0 · Fresno State 65% to win

no rain · 84°

Grice 88-yd TD run, Rice goes ahead 7-0

Measured at Fresno Air Terminal airport, 3.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Rice · 1-2

Rated 181st in our preseason ratings, 147th now, up 34 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 21-28 vs Western Michigan #27 of 668

lost by 7 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 0-52 @ Notre DameTop 25 #2 of 668

lost by 52 as a 44.5-point underdog

W 31-3 vs Houston Christian #229 of 668

won by 28 as a 22.5-point favorite

Last three games

Fresno State · 2-1

Rated 53rd in our preseason ratings, 53rd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 26-10 @ San José State #133 of 668

won by 16 as a 4-point favorite

W 49-3 vs Sacramento State #130 of 668

won by 46 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 0-39 @ USCTop 25 #30 of 668

lost by 39 as a 21.5-point underdog

Week by week

Fresno State

Wk 1Lat USC0-39
Wk 2Wvs Sacramento State49-3
Wk 3Wat San José State26-10

Rice

Wk 1Wvs Houston Christian31-3
Wk 2Lat Notre Dame0-52
Wk 3Lvs Western Michigan21-28

Power rating by week

Fresno State is rated 7.7 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Rice’s EPA/play against Fresno State, 56 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Rice’s EPA/play against Fresno State’s defense
Rice offense, 9th percentile · Fresno State defense, 65th
Rice’s passing EPA against Fresno State’s defense
Rice offense, 1st percentile · Fresno State defense, 53rd
Rice’s explosive plays against Fresno State’s defense
Rice offense, 27th percentile · Fresno State defense, 72nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

RiceFresno State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Fresno State leads the series 6-1

7 meetings since 1999 · Rice won the last meeting

2014 · neutral siteRice 30-6
2004Fresno State 52-14
2003Fresno State 31-28
2002Fresno State 31-28
2001Fresno State 52-24

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Fresno State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (88th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Fresno State favored by 12.5 · Total 43.5

How games like this usually go

Fresno State by 12.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Rice.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 82° at kickoff.

Rice at Fresno State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno

82°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
94weather score, Comfortable
2ndbest of the day's 4 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's four kickoff times. At Valley Children's Stadium that day, a 8 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 94 at 7:30 pm.

4:30 pm: 75, Mixed
6 pm: 87, Mixed
7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable (this game)
8 pm: 98, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Fresno State is worth +4.8 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 62nd percentile.

69% at home, 54% on the road against FBS opponents (29-13 home, 28-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.4 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,485 miles to get here.

Fresno State beats Rice 38-24