Maddux Madsen

#4 · QB · Boise State5′10″ · 207 lb · American Fork, UT

ZPR6232nd of 119 QBsHeismanNo. 10in our modelLast gameW 46–45vs Texas State · Oct 31
Nextat Colorado StateSat Nov 7 · 6 pm ET
via broncosports.com ↗

Graded Solid or better in each of the last two games.

Last game: W 46-45 vs Texas State, Oct 31 · 24 of 33 for 236 yards, a touchdown, an interception · 7 carries for -2 yards, 2 rushing touchdowns. Started all eight of Boise State’s games.

Boise State’s next game: at Colorado State, Sat Nov 7, 6:00 p.m. ET · USA Network

Boise State has won seven straight in the games played, 7-1 in all. A chain-mover.

Strongest: an interception on 0.5% of throws, 6th lowest of 158 starters.

Passing yards

1,681

148 of 222, 67%

TD–INT

15–1

7.6 per throw

NCAA rating

151.7

35th of 119

ZPR

62

32nd of 119

How ZPR works

Graded Solid at Washington State, the last full game; one rough passing grade, against South Dakota.

Best by our grade: Utah State. Lowest: South Dakota. Biggest game: at Oregon, No. 2. Costliest play: Interception, returned for a touchdown, against Texas State, Q4 8:58. Win chance 50% to 13%.

Tap a game for its plays

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Season

Fades after halftime

How to read this

Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for the quarterback, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming the quarterback. Dashed outlines on the Season row are last season’s average. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of the quarterback’s plays, up helped the team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.

The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as the season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.

Style of play

Chain-mover

Why this word
Runs3.6 a gameRarelyA lot
Throws7.4 yards past the lineShortDeep
Completes66% by play-by-playFewerMore
Takes sacks2% of dropbacksRarelyOften

The dot is this quarterback, among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.

Throws at a middling depth and runs some. 3.6 carries a game. Closest matches: Heintschel, Simon ’25, Mandal, Weigman.

Where the throws go

Behind the line12%typical 17%
Short57%typical 47%
Middle23%typical 22%
Deep8%typical 14%

Runs 3.6 times a game; 60% of starters run more.

Closest in style

HeintschelSimon ’25MandalWeigmanThis QB

Nearer the middle means more alike.

  • Heintschel Pittsburgh · Balanced
    1,304 yards, 14 TD, 1 INT so far. Both score a lot and protect the ball.
  • Simon ’25 Temple 2025 · Playmaker
    2,098 yards, 25 TD, 2 INT. Both score a lot and protect the ball.
  • Mandal Fresno State · Balanced
    1,595 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT so far. Both rarely throw behind the line and protect the ball.
  • Weigman Houston · Chain-mover
    2,052 yards, 20 TD, 2 INT so far. Both are efficient and complete a lot.

Compared with the 158 FBS starters this season for throws and running, and with 219 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.

This week

  • RecordBoise State is 7-1, No. 20 in the AP poll (week 10).
  • Fans after Texas State

    Cutforth had better arm talent then Madsen my goodness lol

    Boise State fan

What’s being said

8 stories this week, from 6 outlets.

Nov 1: 5Nov 2: 3W 46-45 vs Texas StateWOct 29Nov 4Most in a day: 5
Nov 1: 5Nov 2: 3W 46-45 vs Texas StateWOct 29Nov 4Most in a day: 5
Stories per day. W and L: the team’s results.

Boise State Updates Maddux Madsen Injury With Major News

Heavy +1 Nov 2

All 28 stories this season

Worth knowing

  • Maddux Madsen has 1 interception in 222 throws, the 6th-fewest among FBS quarterbacks.

His most important play this season

  1. Q1, 11:33 · Boise State tiedMaddux Madsen finds Matt Wagner for a 34-yard touchdownBoise State at Western Michigan, week 4Q1, 11:33 · Boise State 8, Western Michigan 0Boise State opened the scoringBoise State opened the scoringM.Madsen pass complete short middle to M.Wagner caught at WMU15, for 34 yards to the WMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN Z.Martinez rush attempt SuccessfulWatch from this playESPN College Football

All 11 of his plays on video

The story

Written , before the 2026 season

Madsen's 2025 stat line looks modest on the surface — 2,333 yards, 58.3 percent completions, 18 touchdowns, 9 interceptions — but the play-by-play context reframes it. His average depth of target sits at the 78th percentile nationally, and his explosive pass rate (completions of 15-plus yards) ranks 79th. He is not a timing-rhythm quarterback padding completion percentages on three-yard hitches. Every time he drops back he is asking his receivers to beat somebody.

Read the rest of the story

That approach inflates his touchdown rate to the 71st percentile and his EPA per dropback to the 67th — real production, generated by taking shots. The cost is visible: a 31st-percentile completion percentage and a 14th-percentile interception rate. Those are not anomalies to explain away; they are the predictable tradeoff of a vertically-oriented offense. Madsen's sack rate (64th percentile) suggests he moves on quickly when the shot isn't there, which limits the damage on any given play.

The 2026 stakes are concrete. Boise State's top four pass-catchers from 2025 all moved on, leaving Madsen to build chemistry with an essentially new supporting cast. If the Broncos can develop a genuine go-to downfield target, the infrastructure is already in place for a Davey O'Brien watch-list conversation. If the receiver room sputters, the interception rate becomes the loudest number on the page.

Sources