Arizona beats Northern Illinois 42-17
Team pages: Northern Illinois · Arizona
Arizona beat Northern Illinois 42-17. Share this game
We had Arizona favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
he broke 2 pairs of ankles to start that return. My god
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arizona a 90% chance, and the closing betting line (Arizona was a 34.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.
Favored the whole way: Arizona never fell below 90%.
Northern Illinois led by 10 but, as a 34.5-point underdog, never had better than a 10% chance.
Arizona · Q2 11:13Punt return TDArizona · Q2 2:13Arizona 42-17 Northern Illinois
Arizona wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Northern Illinois 17-42 ArizonaNorthern Illinois lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 10:34Arizona fans panic after back-to-back sacks and poor offense
I was feeling good about Brennan after last season but if we somehow lose this one I may be back on the "fire this bum" train.
r/CFB game threadWhat the fuck just happened
r/CFB game thread - Q1 1:08
I would think by now Fifita would learn to stop looking for only the kill shot, and instead just dump it off.
r/CFB game threadOur defense is Swiss cheese this year
r/CFB game thread - Q2 8:21Officials overturn Thompson touchdown after review, sparking fan outrage
how in the world did we get PAC-12 refs back into this stadium lol
r/CFB game thread - Q2 3:54Spivey makes a spectacular catch on a Fifita pass for a touchdown
SPIVEY YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING ME GIVE NOAH THE HEISMAN I'VE SEEN ENOUGH
r/CFB game thread - Q2 2:13Arizona fans celebrate Caleb Smith's 69-yard punt return touchdownQuoted at the top of the page.
69 yard return? nice
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Arizona -34.5), at 99% for Arizona (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Arizona’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 11:08Fifita sacked for a 11-yd lossQ1, 11:08 · Arizona 0, Northern Illinois 30-3score after the play0-3score after the play▶Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
- Q1, 9:07Dickens 52-yd TD pass to ThompsonNorthern Illinois leads 10-0Q1, 9:07 · Arizona 0, Northern Illinois 100-10score after the play0-10score after the play▶Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
- Q1, 1:00Fifita sacked for a 8-yd lossQ1, 1:00 · Arizona 7, Northern Illinois 107-10score after the play7-10score after the play▶Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
- Q3, 9:01Fifita 3-yd TD pass to PowellArizona leads 35-10Q3, 9:01 · Arizona 35, Northern Illinois 1035-10score after the play35-10score after the play▶Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
- Q4, 0:13Porter 1-yd TD runcuts it to 42-17Q4, 0:13 · Arizona 42, Northern Illinois 1742-17score after the play42-17score after the play▶Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
Every drive
Arizona scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Northern Illinois on 3 of its 9.
Arizona’s drives are teal, Northern Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“If we were an SEC team that catch would make it onto advertising hype reels.”
When fans got loud
Busy
Fans peaked in the second quarter.
The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.
Box score
Arizona 42, Northern Illinois 17
Northern Illinois covered +34.5 by 9.5. The total, 59, went over 50.5.
| Team totals | Northern Illinois | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 341 | 441 |
| Passing | 29 of 43, 255 yds | 32 of 37, 357 yds |
| Rushing | 24 for 86 yds | 27 for 84 yds |
| First downs | 20 | 22 |
| Third down | 6 of 16 | 9 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 3 for 15 yds | 4 for 50 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:40 | 30:20 |
Northern Illinois leaders
- Passing Taron Dickens 25 of 37, 228 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Telly Johnson Jr. 12 for 69 yds; Taron Dickens 7 for 9 yds
- Receiving DeAree Rogers 10 for 68 yds; Cam Thompson 3 for 62 yds, 1 TD
Arizona leaders
- Passing Noah Fifita 31 of 34, 325 yds, 4 TD
- Rushing Kedrick Reescano 8 for 30 yds; Quincy Craig 3 for 23 yds
- Receiving Tre Spivey 6 for 90 yds, 1 TD; Chris Hunter 5 for 73 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
86° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Arizona Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Davis-monthan Afb airport, 5.8 miles away, and Tucson International Airport, 7.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Northern Illinois · 0-2
Rated 101st in our preseason ratings, 103rd now.
Two straight losses.
Last two games
Arizona · 1-1
Rated 27th in our preseason ratings, 27th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Arizona
- Wk 1Wvs Northern Arizona35-7
- Wk 2Lat BYU17-28
Northern Illinois
- Wk 1Lat Iowa0-40
- Wk 2Lvs Illinois State24-28
Power rating by week
Arizona is rated 8.9 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Arizona’s success rate against Northern Illinois, 87 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Arizona’s success rate against Northern Illinois’s defense
Arizona offense, 88th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 1st
Northern Illinois’s passing EPA against Arizona’s defense
Northern Illinois offense, 9th percentile · Arizona defense, 85th
Northern Illinois’s explosive plays against Arizona’s defense
Northern Illinois offense, 42nd percentile · Arizona defense, 2nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Arizona fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (82nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 90%
- Line · 100%
- Arizona fans · 82nd
- Northern Illinois fans · 26th
Arizona favored by 34.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Arizona by 34.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Northern Illinois.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −35.5 → −34.5 · Total: 49.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 3.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 81° at kickoff.
Northern Illinois at Arizona · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Arizona Stadium, Tucson
- 81°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 96weather score, Comfortable
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 4 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's four kickoff times. At Arizona Stadium that day, a 12:30 pm kickoff would have scored 52, against 96 at 7:30 pm.
- 12:30 pm: 52, Rough
- 4:15 pm: 65, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable (this game)
- 8 pm: 96, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Arizona is worth +3.5 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 38th percentile.
49% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (22-23 home, 14-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,388 miles to get here.