Cincinnati 31-26 Kansas State (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Kansas State · Cincinnati

Kansas State3-126

Cincinnati4-031Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio · Crowd 37,562

Cincinnati beat Kansas State 31-26.

We had Kansas State favored. Cincinnati won.

Next: Kansas State lost to Houston 35-16, Sat Oct 10

Next: Cincinnati lost to Arizona 34-7, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

If Avery runs the ball this drive and we get a fast td im gonna be so annoyed. Not that we scored but to prove that he can (still) do that whenever

Q4 5:29 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Johnson 18-yd pass to Salley (Q4, 1:36). Cincinnati went from 97% to 71% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Cincinnati a 27% chance, and the closing betting line (Cincinnati was a 6-point underdog) put it at 31%.

Cincinnati came back from 10 down, at one point just a 14% chance in the second quarter.

Kansas State led by 10, was as high as 86% in the second quarter, and still lost.

FinalCincinnati 31-26 Kansas StateCincinnati wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 7:26Tabb 30-yd TD run, Cincinnati goes ahead 24-17Cincinnati 52% → 68% (+16)
2Q4 1:15Fields 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 31-26Cincinnati 71% → 92% (+21)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 7:26Tabb 30-yd TD run, Cincinnati goes ahead 24-17Kansas State 48% → 32% (−16)
2Q4 1:15Fields 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 31-26Kansas State 29% → 8% (−21)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 5:29Fans rage over uncalled holding as Cole Tabb scores Cincinnati touchdownu/bearcatgary holding or no?r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.

Cincinnati’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Kansas State -6), at 47% for Cincinnati (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Cincinnati or Kansas State flair (369 and 1,021); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Cincinnati’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Cincinnati scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Kansas State on 5 of its 11.

Cincinnati’s drives are teal, Kansas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Kansas State’s side

Kansas State’s best moment: Johnson 18-yd pass to Salley (Q4 1:36). It lifted Kansas State’s win chance by 26 points.

How Kansas State fans took it: “That’s it. The wife is sleeping on the couch and the kids are grounded tonight” r/CFB game thread

“I mean, we all knew this wasn’t happening”

A Kansas State fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

It was the fourth quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Cincinnati fans

satterfield““Hard to believe Scott Satterfield has never been 4-0 as a head coach” It’s really not bro”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: refs, ball, call, broadcast.

The winner fell to 11%.

What it cost

Kansas State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 7% to 3%.

Make the playoff

Kansas State · lost7% → ▼3%

Cincinnati · won0% → ▲1%

Win the conference

Kansas State · lost7% → ▼3%

Cincinnati · won0% → 0%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Cincinnati 31, Kansas State 26

Cincinnati covered +6 by 11. The total, 57, went over 55.5.

Team totals	Kansas State	Cincinnati
Total yards	447	436
Passing	30 of 50, 292 yds	8 of 13, 165 yds
Rushing	30 for 155 yds	38 for 271 yds
First downs	25	16
Third down	10 of 17	5 of 11
Fourth down	0 of 0	0 of 0
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	7 for 50 yds	8 for 72 yds
Time of possession	33:18	26:42

Kansas State leaders

Passing Avery Johnson 30 of 50, 292 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Joe Jackson 11 for 59 yds; Rodney Fields Jr. 12 for 50 yds, 2 TD
Receiving Derrick Salley Jr. 7 for 140 yds, 1 TD; Garrett Oakley 7 for 80 yds

Cincinnati leaders

Passing JC French 8 of 13, 165 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Gi'Bran Payne 16 for 126 yds; Cole Tabb 11 for 124 yds, 3 TD
Receiving JaVonnie Gibson 2 for 66 yds; Malachi Henry 1 for 39 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

69° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 1 mph from the east, gusts to 5

The usual here around this date is 68°, with about 7 in 10 games between 59° and 76°.

September game-day temperatures at Nippert Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:36 left10:23 p.m.

Kansas State 20, Cincinnati 31 · Cincinnati 71% to win

no rain · wind 1 mph from the south-southeast · 54°

Johnson 18-yd pass to Salley

Measured at Cincinnat/lunken airport, 5.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Kansas State · 3-0

Rated 32nd in our preseason ratings, 26th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 31-20 vs Tulane #74 of 668

won by 11 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 34-7 vs Washington State #42 of 668

won by 27 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 71-3 vs Nicholls #158 of 668

won by 68 as a 41.5-point favorite

Last three games

Cincinnati · 3-0

Rated 109th in our preseason ratings, 101st now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 35-31 vs Miami (OH) #85 of 668

won by 4 as a 14.5-point favorite

W 62-10 vs Western Carolina #193 of 668

won by 52 as a 36.5-point favorite

W 34-15 vs Boston College #131 of 668

won by 19 as a 7-point favorite

Week by week

Cincinnati

Wk 1Wvs Boston College34-15
Wk 2Wvs Western Carolina62-10
Wk 3Wvs Miami (OH)35-31

Kansas State

Wk 1Wvs Nicholls71-3
Wk 2Wvs Washington State34-7
Wk 3Wvs Tulane31-20

Power rating by week

Kansas State is rated 8.6 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Cincinnati’s explosive plays against Kansas State, 93 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Cincinnati’s explosive plays against Kansas State’s defense
Cincinnati offense, 98th percentile · Kansas State defense, 5th
Kansas State’s EPA/play against Cincinnati’s defense
Kansas State offense, 84th percentile · Cincinnati defense, 13th
Cincinnati’s rushing EPA against Kansas State’s defense
Cincinnati offense, 97th percentile · Kansas State defense, 21st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Kansas StateCincinnati

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Cincinnati leads the series 4-3

7 meetings since 1951 · Kansas State has won the last 3

2024Kansas State 41-15
1996Kansas State 35-0
1995Kansas State 23-21
1966Cincinnati 28-14
1965Cincinnati 21-14

Each line is Cincinnati’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kansas State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (31st among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Kansas State favored by 6 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Kansas State by 6, on the usual path until 0:04 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total rose 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 60° at kickoff.

Kansas State at Cincinnati · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati

60°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
99weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Nippert Stadium that day, a noon, 5 pm or 6 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 99 at 7 pm.

noon: 100, Ideal
12:45 pm: 98, Comfortable
2 pm: 96, Comfortable
3:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
4 pm: 98, Comfortable
5 pm: 100, Ideal
6 pm: 100, Ideal
7 pm: 99, Comfortable (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Cincinnati is worth +5.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.

76% at home, 58% on the road against FBS opponents (37-12 home, 25-18 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 647 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Cincinnati9th0-0
Kansas State10th0-0

Full Big 12 standings

Cincinnati beats Kansas State 31-26