Best by our grade: Marshall. Lowest: Wisconsin, with 1 interception and sacked 2 times. Biggest game: USC, No. 19. Best play: Completion for 22 yards, against Wisconsin, Q4 1:13. Win chance 45% to 67%. Costliest play: Sack, against Wisconsin, Q4 1:13. Win chance 67% to 37%.
Tap a game for its plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4
MRSH
Marshall
W 45–0·Unranked
Great
271 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · Rush 2 for -5 · Sacked 1
It’s only been 2 drives but I love Rocco Becht
PSUPenn State fan
Biggest swing: a Q1 completion added 16 points of win chance. Win chance: 70% to 86%.
243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT · Rush 7 for 10 · Interceptions cost about 6 points of win chance · Sacked 1
My name is Rocco Becht. I’m currently scamming a division 1 program that thinks I can play quarterback. Please f------ help me I dont know what im doing
PSUPenn State fan
None of the quarterback’s own plays moved the team's chance of winning by more than a few points.
Strong start, faded late · 289 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · Rush 10 for 20 · Sacked 1
Calling it now, we're going to drive all the way down burning the entire clock and score. We go for two and Becht will just absolutely yeet the ball out of the end zone.
PSUPenn State fan
Biggest swing: a Q1 completion added 18 points of win chance. It flipped the game for the team: 40% to 58%.
Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for the quarterback, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming the quarterback. Dashed outlines on the Season row are last season’s average. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of the quarterback’s plays, up helped the team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.
The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as the season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.
Style of play
Gunslinger
Why this word
Runs4.8 a gameRarelyA lot
Throws10.3 yards past the lineShortDeep
Completes60% by play-by-playFewerMore
Takes sacks6% of dropbacksRarelyOften
The dot is this quarterback, among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.
Throws deeper than most and runs some. 4.8 carries a game. Closest matches: Minicucci ’25, Lagway, Fifita ’25, Hayes.
Where the throws go
Behind the line11%typical 17%
Short49%typical 47%
Middle23%typical 22%
Deep18%typical 14%
Runs 4.8 times a game; 58% of starters run less.
Closest in style
Nearer the middle means more alike.
Minicucci ’25Delaware 2025 · Mobile passer 3,671 yards, 23 TD, 7 INT. Both protect the ball and rarely throw behind the line.
LagwayBaylor · Gunslinger 1,671 yards, 13 TD, 4 INT so far. Both rarely throw behind the line and throw deep.
Fifita ’25Arizona 2025 · Balanced 3,228 yards, 29 TD, 6 INT. Both protect the ball and rarely throw behind the line.
HayesTulsa · Balanced 1,343 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT so far. Both protect the ball.
Compared with the 158 FBS starters this season for throws and running, and with 219 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.
This week
RecordPenn State is 4-4.
Last gameOct. 31 · a win over Purdue, 175 passing yards.
Fans after Purdue
Becht is addicted to running straight into his OL while scrambling
The discourse around Penn State this offseason has a nickname: the "Penn State Cyclones." Campbell didn't just take the job after Franklin's seventh-ranked team lost three straight and got upset by UCLA; he brought 24 Iowa State players with him, including his longtime starter, his coordinator and his receiver room. Becht is the anchor of it. "Last year, it wasn't player-led, and the culture wasn't consistently present," he told ESPN of Franklin's final season. "Right now, everyone is completely bought in." He says he got chills the first time he walked into Beaver Stadium.
Read the rest of the story
What he carries is the most starting wins of any returning quarterback in college football (26) and a body that's still healing. Becht played all 12 games in 2025 through a torn labrum, threw for nearly 1,000 fewer yards and nine fewer touchdowns than his 2024 peak, finished at 2,565 and 16 scores, and got surgery after the season that limited him through spring. That gap is the whole argument. Our perception signal pegs him in the 89th percentile of fan attention while his production lands at the 34th: a classic aura tax, the boards selling a gamer the play-by-play grades as merely steady (43rd-percentile EPA per dropback). The skeptics are loud too. His career-high completion rate is 62.9 percent, and analysts who slot him 18th nationally and behind six Big Ten quarterbacks say the deep-shot diet and the arm talent cap his ceiling.
And yet he's a real Heisman dark horse, named to award watch lists before taking a snap in blue and white. The schedule is one of the league's more manageable, the receivers are his old ones, the staff is his old one. The question Happy Valley is actually asking: at Iowa State a healthy Becht was a very good story; at Penn State, Resolves 2027-01-20.PENDING. Can he be the difference in the games Iowa State never got to play?
The plan just cleared its first live test, and not well: Penn State lost at home to Wisconsin, 24-20, on September 26 as 10-point favorites, with USC, Michigan and Washington still ahead on the schedule. Becht's own line that day — 114 passing yards, no passing touchdowns, an interception — was his shakiest start in blue and white. The Playoff math survives one loss; it has no room for another against the three blue-bloods still on the board.
The next test went no better: Penn State lost 34-13 at Northwestern, and Becht went 26 of 41 for 243 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
The record
A falsifiable call from this player's outlook. Not yet gradeable.
What we said
carry a blue-blood through USC, Michigan and Washington into the CFP
Graded as: at least 1 College Football Playoff game in 2026.
Iowa State DOMINATES In Ireland, Proves They're TOP of Big 12, Major Upsides On Offense, Rocco BechtAug 23
Rocco Becht Will carry Iowa State To Big 12 Title Game, Matt Campbell Better Coach vs KSUAug 26
Cyhawk Game Could define Rocco Becht's Iowa State Career, Cyclones Should handle HawksSep 2
Iowa State Will Try new strategy Against University Of Iowa, Taylor Mouser Trusts Rocco BechtSep 3
In the news across his career
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2025). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Ranked among the 624 QBs we have enough data on. Perception is how much fans talk about this player; production is our passing-value metric (weighted expected points added).
26-yard completion to Chase Sowell. Second quarter, up 3-0.
2
Intercepted. Third quarter, up 3-0. Picked off by Michigan’s Rod Moore.
3
Intercepted on 3rd and 3. Third quarter, down 7-3. Picked off by Michigan’s Chris Bracy. Fans named him again and again right after: the most-talked-about moment of his game.
“Hey Campbell. Do you see how Michigan was willing to bench their insanely overpaid NIL qb for a freshman? Can you like, stop being overly loyal to some certain ISU guys? At…”Penn State fan, r/CFB game thread
4
Sacked for a 9-yard loss. Fourth quarter, down 14-11. Fans named him again and again right after.
“Becht is a football terrorist”Penn State fan, r/CFB game thread
1020304050
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
6 more games, with the play by play
USCL 23-31 vs USCOct. 10289 yds21 of 32, 1 TD9 yds an attempt, 27th in FBS
21 of 32 for 289 yards and a touchdown. He was 7 of 15 on third and fourth down.
5 of 9 of his drives scored
7 of 15 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
9 runs for 29 yds
First quarterbegan tied 0-0
TD3 of 3, 67 yds123
Punt3 of 3, 27 yds
Second quarterbegan tied 7-7
TD1 of 2, 37 yds
Punt1 of 3, 13 yds
FG4 of 4, 31 yds
Third quarterbegan tied 17-17
FG2 of 4, 24 yds
FG4 of 7, 56 yds
Fourth quarterbegan down 24-20
Punt2 of 5, 9 yds4
Fumble1 of 1, 25 yds
FinalL 23-31
a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost
47-yard completion to Chase Sowell. First quarter, down 7-0.
2
7-yard completion to Andrew Rappleyea on 3rd and 9. First quarter, down 7-0.
3
13-yard touchdown pass to Andrew Rappleyea on 4th and 2. First quarter, made it 7-7.
4
Incomplete to Andrew Rappleyea on 2nd and 10. Fourth quarter, down 31-23. Fans named him again and again right after: the most-talked-about moment of his game.
“Rocco Becht is actually ass and i may not watch another full game.”Penn State fan, r/CFB game thread
10203040503747
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
NORL 13-34 at NorthwesternOct. 2243 yds26 of 41, 1 TD, 2 INT5.9 yds an attempt, 83rd in FBS
26 of 41 for 243 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. Penn State’s last drive ended with his pass intercepted, down 34-13.
2 of 12 of his drives scored
4 of 12 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
6 runs for 17 yds
First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Punt1 of 2, 26 yds
Punt3 of 4, 18 yds
Second quarterbegan down 10-0
Punt1 of 2, 2 yds
TD—
Punt2 of 3, 7 yds
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds1
Missed FG5 of 7, 60 yds
Third quarterbegan down 24-7
Punt1 of 3, 13 yds
Punt1 of 3, 16 yds2
Int2 of 3, 9 yds3
Fourth quarterbegan down 31-7
TD7 of 8, 67 yds
Int3 of 5, 25 yds4
FinalL 13-34
a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost
Incomplete to Chase Sowell on 3rd and 5. Second quarter, down 17-7. Fans named him again and again right after.
“Becht is looking like the worst QB in the big”Michigan fan, r/CFB game thread
2
Incomplete to Zay Robinson on 3rd and 10. Third quarter, down 24-7. Fans named him again and again right after: the most-talked-about moment of his game.
“These misses from Becht are wild man”Alabama fan, r/CFB game thread
3
Intercepted. Fourth quarter, down 31-7. Picked off by Northwestern’s Braydon Brus.
4
Intercepted. Fourth quarter, down 34-13. Picked off by Northwestern’s Robert Fitzgerald.
1020304050
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
WISL 20-24 vs WisconsinSept. 26114 yds12 of 29, 1 INT3.9 yds an attempt, 123rd in FBS
12 of 29 for 114 yards and an interception. He was 6 of 14 on third and fourth down.
3 of 13 of his drives scored
6 of 14 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked twice
8 runs for 31 yds
First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Punt2 of 3, 14 yds1
FG2 of 3, 28 yds
Uncategorized0 of 3, 0 yds
Second quarterbegan up 3-0
TD—
Punt1 of 1, 17 yds
Half0 of 1, 0 yds
Third quarterbegan up 17-7
Int0 of 1, 0 yds2
FG2 of 4, 19 yds
Uncategorized2 of 2, 8 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 20-10
Punt—
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds
Punt1 of 2, 3 yds
Uncategorized2 of 7, 25 yds34
FinalL 20-24
a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost
9-yard completion to Benjamin Brahmer on 3rd and 5. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
2
Intercepted. Third quarter, up 17-7. Picked off by Wisconsin’s Charles Perkins.
3
22-yard completion to Chase Sowell. Fourth quarter, down 24-20.
4
Incomplete to Benjamin Brahmer on 4th and 14. Fourth quarter, down 24-20. Fans named him again and again right after: the most-talked-about moment of his game.
“Becht is actual garbage at quarterback”Penn State fan, r/CFB game thread
1020304050
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
BUFW 55-13 vs BuffaloSept. 19212 yds11 of 19, 2 TD11.2 yds an attempt, 16th in FBS
11 of 19 for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was 1 of 6 on third and fourth down.
7 of 10 of his drives scored
1 of 6 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
2 runs for -5 yds
First quarterbegan tied 0-0
FG1 of 1, 4 yds1
TD1 of 2, 31 yds
TD2 of 3, 17 yds
Punt1 of 2, 13 yds
Second quarterbegan up 17-3
FG0 of 1, 0 yds
TD1 of 1, 8 yds
Punt1 of 3, 10 yds
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds
TD1 of 1, 70 yds2
Third quarterbegan up 34-6
TD3 of 3, 59 yds
FinalW 55-13
a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost
70-yard touchdown pass to Koby Howard. Second quarter, made it 34-3.
1020304050353170
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
TEMW 27-9 at TempleSept. 12268 yds21 of 27, 3 TD9.9 yds an attempt, 26th in FBS
21 of 27 for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns. He was 4 of 8 on third and fourth down.
5 of 8 of his drives scored
4 of 8 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
2 runs for 4 yds
First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Missed FG1 of 1, 56 yds12
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds3
Downs0 of 1, 0 yds4
Second quarterbegan tied 0-0
FG3 of 4, 13 yds
TD6 of 6, 64 yds
Third quarterbegan up 10-3
TD4 of 5, 49 yds
FG2 of 4, 42 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 20-3
TD5 of 5, 44 yds
FinalW 27-9
a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost
56-yard completion to Koby Howard. First quarter, tied 0-0.
2
Sacked for a 6-yard loss on 3rd and 9. First quarter, tied 0-0.
3
3-yard run on 3rd and 7. First quarter, tied 0-0.
4
Incomplete to Andrew Rappleyea on 4th and 2. First quarter, tied 0-0. Turnover on downs.
102030405056
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
MARW 45-0 vs MarshallSept. 5271 yds13 of 18, 4 TD15.1 yds an attempt, 1st in FBS
13 of 18 for 271 yards and 4 touchdowns; 15.1 yards an attempt, the best in FBS that week. Penn State scored touchdowns on 4 of the 6 drives he played.
5 of 6 of his drives scored
3 of 5 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
1 run for 0 yds
First quarterbegan tied 0-0
FG1 of 2, 20 yds
TD2 of 2, 55 yds1
TD3 of 4, 64 yds
Second quarterbegan up 17-0
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds
TD4 of 5, 64 yds
Third quarterbegan up 24-0
TD3 of 3, 68 yds
FinalW 45-0
a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost
42-yard touchdown pass to Koby Howard on 3rd and 3. First quarter, made it 10-0.
1020304050394242
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
Highs and lows
Only games with 20 or more plays count for best and lowest.
Sorted by passing yards. Gray: under 10 attempts a game, so not ranked on yards an attempt.
Passing yards1,8396th in the Big Ten this season; 3rd among current FBS players over the whole career (11,094).
Touchdown passes13tied for 5th in the Big Ten this season; tied for 4th among current FBS players over the whole career (77).
Conference ranks count every player in the conference with a row in that stat, any position. Career ranks count current FBS players, from the games in our log.
Opponents faced, by strength
Ratings of the games shown run from -12 to +14 points against an average team (SP+ rating of each opponent).
Pass targets
Sowell and Rappleyea saw 92 of the 235 charted throws.
Play by play: 235 passes, 148 caught, 1,839 yards; the box score counts 234 attempts. Throw depth: average air yards per target. After catch: average yards after the catch per catch. Bar: targets; the blue part was caught.
Passing profile
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
148/234 (63.2%) · 13 TD · 5 INT
234 of 234 attempts matched to play-by-play
231 of 234 attempts charted for true throw depth
Adjusted ANY/A
7.3861 of 185 QBs
Sack rate
4.9%79 of 185 QBs
Rarely sacked (79 of 185 QBs) and still 61 of 185 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Overall 63.2% completion on 234 attempts · 35% completion on 40 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Situational
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2026 baseline
No situation moves him more than 27 percentile points from his baseline.
BaselineThis situation
Down 1
-27 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 2/69 (2.9%) · league sack rate 4.5%
Down 2
+21 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/95 (4.2%) · league sack rate 5.0%
Down 3+
-2 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 6/63 (9.5%) · league sack rate 8.3%
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
Teams and coaches
2022Iowa State4-8HC: Matt Campbell · Pass-leaning
2023Iowa State7-6HC: Matt Campbell · Balanced, slow tempo
2024Iowa State11-3HC: Matt Campbell · Balanced
2025Iowa State8-4HC: Matt Campbell · Run-leaning
2026Penn State4-4HC: Matt Campbell · Run-leaning
Our ratings
CFB Zeitgeist Score 58 (#40 of 145). Show the ratings
Production sits in the middle of the position cohort across the board.
Real play-by-play efficiency
Success rate#43 / 157 · 73rd pct
45.5%
Explosive rate#52 / 157 · 67th pct
11.5%
EPA / dropback#54 / 157 · 66th pct
0.24
Sack rate#62 / 157 · 60th pct
4.9%
Interception rate#75 / 157 · 53rd pct
2.1%
Box-score rates (8)
Pass yards#38 / 159 · 76th pct
1839
Pass TDs#41 / 159 · 71st pct
13
Fumbles lost#23 / 142 · 64th pct
1
Yards / att#58 / 159 · 63rd pct
7.9
Rush TDs#57 / 159 · 52nd pct
2
Completion %#79 / 159 · 50th pct
63.2%
Rush yards#93 / 159 · 42nd pct
78
Interceptions#87 / 159 · 37th pct
5
Season trend
Last seasonThis season
EPA / dropback
43rd → 66th percentile
Success rate
61st → 73rd percentile
Explosive rate
37th → 67th percentile
Sack rate
34th → 60th percentile
Interception rate
24th → 53rd percentile
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
After 227 dropbacks
54Zeitgeist Passer Rating49th of 119 FBS QBs
NCAA passer rating143.353rd of 119 FBS QBs
Positive-play rate weight 24%
46.2%44th pct of FBS QBs
share of dropbacks that gained expected points · +0.4% schedule adj.
Yards per attempt weight 56%
8.0265th pct of FBS QBs
sacks excluded · +0.1 schedule adj.
Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
6.0%44th pct of FBS QBs
the input passer rating cannot see · +0.7% schedule adj.
Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (19 of 246 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.
Splits
Home and road splits, scheme and staff
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 8 games
Home/Road · Season halves
Home vs Road
YDS/g
TD/g
YPA
INT/g
Home5g
212
1.6
9.3
0.2
Road3g
259
1.7
7.3
1.3
First half vs Second half
YDS/g
TD/g
YPA
INT/g
Weeks 1-77g
238
1.7
8.7
0.7
Weeks 8+1g
175
1.0
7.3
0.0
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
2026 season
Head Coach
Matt Campbell
Pass share
46.5%
251 pass / 289 run
Plays / game
67.5
8 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Penn State’s quarterbacks
Rocco Becht
Threw in all 8 games · 148 of 234, 1,839 yds, 13 TD, 5 INT · 7.9 yards an attempt on 234 attempts · ran for 78 yds, 2 TD
Transferred from Iowa State to Penn State, Jan 4, 2026.
A stat line in 49 games over five seasons.
The week the volume broke through — put up 314 yds at Cincinnati.Cincinnati · L 30-382025
Becht is a downfield gambler who lives a tier above the field on aggression and a tick below on touch. His 12.8-yard average depth of target sits 75th percentile and his sack rate (61st) shows a quarterback who'll hold for the shot rather than check down, while his interception rate (61st) says the gambles mostly stay clean. The efficiency is the rub: 51st-percentile explosive-pass rate, 50th-percentile pass success, 48th-percentile EPA per dropback, 45th-percentile completion percentage, and a 29th-percentile touchdown rate that screams a 2025 spent grinding through a bad shoulder. Add eight rushing scores and you get a steady, willing, slightly streaky operator whose tape is a healthy-arm bet, not a finished product.
2022
Signed with Iowa StateThree-star, out of Wiregrass Ranch
Iowa State
