VAN Vanderbilt 3-1 15 AUB Auburn 3-1 21 Final Auburn beat Vanderbilt 21-15. Share this game
We had Vanderbilt favored. Auburn won.
Top comment in the game thread
I know why they do it, but I do find it weird that a player can be on the ground in agony and their head coach will just stand on the sideline with their arms crossed. It's such a…
Q2 9:39 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26 How it swung Watch the plays Drives What it cost Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung Before kickoff, our ratings gave Auburn a 46% chance, and the closing betting line (Auburn was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.
Favored the whole way: Auburn never fell below 72%.
Vanderbilt never had better than a 28% chance.
Punt return TD Auburn · Q2 8:56Blocked field goal Q2 0:55 Final Auburn 21-15 Vanderbilt Auburn won Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. Final Vanderbilt 15-21 Auburn Vanderbilt lost Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. 50% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 94% at half Auburn Won 21-15 1 +11 Scores Blocked field goal Auburn Vanderbilt Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 0 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 0 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 1 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a 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fans: 4 comments a minute 50% 10% 25% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 6% at half Auburn Lost 15-21 1 Scores Blocked field goal Vanderb… Auburn Vanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minute Vanderbilt fans: 0 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See it from Vanderbilt’s side The play that swung it
1 Q2 8:56 Special teams Punt blocked and returned for a TD, Auburn leads 14-3Auburn 83% → 94% (+11) The play that swung it
1 Q2 8:56 Special teams Punt blocked and returned for a TD, Auburn leads 14-3Vanderbilt 17% → 6% (−11) What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 11:28 Auburn fans curse as Brown throws interception to Vanderbilt's Capers MILES CAPERS IS THE GOAT r/CFB game thread Q2 14:55 Auburn fans criticize the offense's disorganized three-and-out drive How do you come out of a timeout that disorganized? r/CFB game thread I hate that our offense drives are either a speed run 3 and out or a 4 play td drive r/CFB game thread Q2 9:39 Quoted at the top of the page. Why is this the darkest broadcast of all time? Someone tell the truck they need to up the exposure! r/CFB game thread Q2 8:56 Auburn blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown. Thank God he picked that up and scored because that was about to be a field goal r/CFB game thread Q2 0:44 Auburn fans demand benching Brown after sack and out-of-bounds frustration DUDE! THROW IT OUT OF BOUNDS! r/CFB game thread Q4 8:35 Officials overturn targeting call on J.Curtis pass to J.Sherrill at this point, does anyone anywhere have any idea what targeting is, isn't, or ought to be? r/CFB game thread I think rtp w/o targeting was correct there r/CFB game thread Auburn’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Auburn -10), at 82% for Auburn (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Auburn or Vanderbilt flair (528 and 111); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Auburn’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q1, 11:28 Brown intercepted by Capers at the Auburn 24 Q1, 11:28 · Auburn 0, Vanderbilt 0 ▼7% Auburn’s chance to win, 79% to 72% ▼7% Auburn’s chance to win, 79% to 72% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q1, 7:25 Brown 33-yd TD pass to Nimrod Auburn goes ahead 7-3 Q1, 7:25 · Auburn 7, Vanderbilt 3 ▲8% Auburn’s chance to win, 77% to 85% ▲8% Auburn’s chance to win, 77% to 85% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 8:56 Punt blocked and returned for a TD Auburn leads 14-3 Q2, 8:56 · Auburn 14, Vanderbilt 3 ▲11% Auburn’s chance to win, 83% to 94% ▲11% Auburn’s chance to win, 83% to 94% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 0:44 Brown sacked for a 2-yd loss Q2, 0:44 · Auburn 14, Vanderbilt 3 14-3 score after the play 14-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 0:01 Curtis intercepted by Smith-Reed at the Auburn 13 Q2, 0:01 · Auburn 14, Vanderbilt 3 14-3 score after the play 14-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q3, 7:07 Alexander 3-yd TD run cuts it to 14-9 Q3, 7:07 · Auburn 14, Vanderbilt 9 ▼8% Auburn’s chance to win, 92% to 84% ▼8% Auburn’s chance to win, 92% to 84% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q3, 4:40 Brown 2-yd TD run Auburn leads 21-9 Q3, 4:40 · Auburn 21, Vanderbilt 9 ▲6% Auburn’s chance to win, 89% to 95% ▲6% Auburn’s chance to win, 89% to 95% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive Auburn scored on 2 of its 10 drives; Vanderbilt on 4 of its 11.
Auburn’s drives are teal, Vanderbilt’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 Auburn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74 Punt Vanderbilt: Punt, from 64 yards out to 58 Punt Auburn: Interception, from 86 yards out to 84 Interception Vanderbilt: Field goal, from 23 yards out to 20 Field goal Auburn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0 Touchdown Vanderbilt: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68 Punt Auburn: Punt, from 83 yards out to 60 Punt Vanderbilt: Turned over on downs, from 81 yards out to 54 Downs Q2 Auburn: Punt, from 46 yards out to 45 Punt Vanderbilt: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 90 yards out to 62 Punt TD Vanderbilt: Punt, from 75 yards out to 48 Punt Auburn: Punt, from 88 yards out to 72 Punt Vanderbilt: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 30 Missed FG Auburn: Missed field goal, from 70 yards out to 43 Missed FG Vanderbilt: Interception, from 57 yards out to 57 Interception Q3 Vanderbilt: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0 Touchdown Auburn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0 Touchdown Vanderbilt: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 29 Field goal Q4 Auburn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58 Punt Vanderbilt: Field goal, from 78 yards out to 27 Field goal Auburn: End of game, from 75 yards out to 30 End of game “Make the whole plane out of Omar” An Auburn fan How fans reacted Steady
Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.
First Second Third Fourth Auburn fans Vanderbilt fans usual What it cost Vanderbilt’s chance to make the playoff fell from 6% to 4%.
Make the playoff
Vanderbilt · lost 6% → ▼ 4% 6% ▼ 4%
Auburn · won 2% → ▲ 3%
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score Auburn 21, Vanderbilt 15
Vanderbilt covered +10 by 4. The total, 36, stayed under 54.5.
Vanderbilt Auburn Total yards Vanderbilt 311 Auburn 279 311 279 Passing yards Vanderbilt 199 Auburn 140 199 140 Rushing yards Vanderbilt 112 Auburn 139 112 139 First downs Vanderbilt 22 Auburn 15 22 15 Turnovers Vanderbilt 1 Auburn 1 1 1 Time of possession Vanderbilt 37:32 Auburn 22:28 37:32 22:28 Team totals Vanderbilt Auburn Total yards 311 279 Passing 22 of 34, 199 yds 18 of 27, 140 yds Rushing 41 for 112 yds 31 for 139 yds First downs 22 15 Third down 4 of 17 7 of 15 Fourth down 4 of 5 0 of 0 Turnovers 1 1 Penalties 8 for 43 yds 5 for 44 yds Time of possession 37:32 22:28
Vanderbilt leaders Passing Jared Curtis 22 of 33, 199 yds, 1 INTRushing Makhilyn Young 10 for 46 yds; Jared Curtis 18 for 46 ydsReceiving Junior Sherrill 6 for 95 yds; Makhilyn Young 3 for 21 ydsAuburn leaders Passing Byrum Brown 18 of 27, 140 yds, 1 TD, 1 INTRushing Jeremiah Cobb 8 for 58 yds; Byrum Brown 10 for 57 yds, 1 TDReceiving Chas Nimrod 5 for 52 yds, 1 TD; Keshaun Singleton 5 for 38 ydsNo rain through the game 81° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Jordan-Hare Stadium
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Auburn favored Vanderbilt favored 100% Win chance Auburn Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph Hourly wind only at this airport Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Auburn favored Vanderbilt favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind · miles per hour 20 40 Hourly wind only at this airport Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
First quarter, 14:52 left3:21 p.m.
Vanderbilt 0, Auburn 0 · Auburn 82% to win
no rain · 81°
Cobb 1-yd run
Previous play Next play
Where this weather comes from Measured at Auburn-opelika Apt airport, 3.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Matchups Biggest mismatch: Auburn’s rushing EPA against Vanderbilt, 48 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Auburn’s rushing EPA against Vanderbilt’s defense
48 points weaker stronger 50th Auburn offense, 76th percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 28th
Vanderbilt’s EPA/play against Auburn’s defense
37 points weaker stronger 50th Vanderbilt offense, 30th percentile · Auburn defense, 67th
Season profile, all the rows Season profile Vanderbilt Auburn
EPA/play, offense
Vanderbilt · 30 Auburn · 34 EPA/play, defense
Vanderbilt · 26 Auburn · 67 Success rate, offense
Vanderbilt · 33 Auburn · 34 Success rate, defense
Vanderbilt · 24 Auburn · 47 Explosive-play rate, offense
Vanderbilt · 67 Auburn · 64 Explosive-play rate, defense
Vanderbilt · 50 Auburn · 76 Rush EPA, offense
Vanderbilt · 58 Auburn · 76 Rush EPA, defense
Vanderbilt · 28 Auburn · 45 Pass EPA, offense
Vanderbilt · 45 Auburn · 17 Pass EPA, defense
Vanderbilt · 31 Auburn · 66 The series Auburn leads the series 21-20-1
42 meetings since 1905 · Vanderbilt has won the last 2
Auburn won Vanderbilt won 1905: Vanderbilt by 54 1909: Vanderbilt by 17 1912: tie 1913: Auburn by 8 1914: Auburn by 6 1915: Vanderbilt by 17 1916: Vanderbilt by 11 1917: Auburn by 24 1918: Vanderbilt by 21 1919: Vanderbilt by 1 1920: Auburn by 50 1924: Vanderbilt by 13 1925: Auburn by 1 1929: Vanderbilt by 39 1930: Vanderbilt by 27 1934: Vanderbilt by 1 1946: Vanderbilt by 19 1947: Vanderbilt by 28 1948: Vanderbilt by 47 1949: Vanderbilt by 19 1950: Vanderbilt by 41 1951: Auburn by 10 1955: Vanderbilt by 12 1978: Auburn by 42 1979: Auburn by 17 1986: Auburn by 22 1987: Auburn by 33 1990: Auburn by 50 1991: Auburn by 2 1992: Auburn by 24 1993: Auburn by 4 2000: Auburn by 33 2001: Auburn by 3 2002: Auburn by 25 2003: Auburn by 38 2007: Auburn by 28 2008: Vanderbilt by 1 2012: Vanderbilt by 4 2016: Auburn by 7 2023: Auburn by 16 2024: Vanderbilt by 10 2025: Vanderbilt by 7 1905 2025 2025 Vanderbilt 45-38 Auburn lost 38-45 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 83%. 2024 Vanderbilt 17-7 Auburn lost 7-17 vs Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 75%, low 2%, high 75%. 2023 Auburn 31-15 Auburn won 31-15 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 78%, low 72%, high better than 99%. 2016 Auburn 23-16 2012 Vanderbilt 17-13 Each line is Auburn’s chance to win through that meeting. Auburn is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans Vanderbilt fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (24th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
50-50 Line · 79% Vanderbilt Auburn Model · 46% Line · 79% Auburn fans · 4th Vanderbilt fans · 24th Auburn favored by 10 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go Auburn by 10, and it went to form 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Half of games 8 in 10 games This game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market The spread moved 1.5 points toward Auburn.
opened −8.5 now −10 The total rose 4 points.
opened 50.5 now 54.5 Spread: −8.5 → −10 · Total: 50.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field Auburn is worth +5.6 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 75th percentile.
56% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (29-23 home, 14-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 256 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages