Baylor 23-13 Colorado (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Colorado · Baylor

Colorado2-213

Baylor3-123Final

Sat, Sep 26 · McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas · Crowd 40,015

Baylor beat Colorado 23-13.

We had Baylor favored. It won.

Next: Colorado lost to Texas Tech 29-7, Sat Oct 3

Next: Baylor beat Arizona State 55-19, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

Was a hard hit but didn’t expect him to get knocked out like that. Hope he’s good

Q2 4:33 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Lagway 33-yd TD pass to Porter, Baylor goes ahead 20-13 (Q4, 9:02). Baylor went from 72% to 90% to win. Fans right then: “And it’s gone.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Baylor an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Baylor was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.

Favored the whole way: Baylor never fell below 64%.

Colorado never had better than a 35% chance.

FinalBaylor 23-13 ColoradoBaylor wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 11:04Wilson 17-yd TD pass to Williams, ties it 13-13Baylor 85% → 71% (−14)
2Q4 9:02Lagway 33-yd TD pass to Porter, Baylor goes ahead 20-13Baylor 72% → 90% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 11:04Wilson 17-yd TD pass to Williams, ties it 13-13Colorado 15% → 29% (+14)
2Q4 9:02Lagway 33-yd TD pass to Porter, Baylor goes ahead 20-13Colorado 28% → 10% (−18)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 4:33Fans react to Moore's injury and debate targeting after Lewis's incomplete passQuoted at the top of the page.Man get him the cartr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:50Lagway throws interception after pass interference penalty as fans demand backupAranda just said Lagway is improving as he noticeably got worse through the half. Missed wide open receivers. Threw an egregious interception. Fire Aranda dude. Unserious coachr/CFB game thread
Q3 9:21Baylor sacks Wilson, fans celebrate passing 2025 sack totalAmazed at the stat that we've already passed our sack TOTAL from the 2025 seasonr/CFB game thread
Q3 2:07Fans argue officials missed pass interference on Lagway's incomplete passHuh? How is there no flag lmaor/CFB game threadHow is that not PIr/CFB game thread
Q4 9:38And it’s gone.r/CFB game thread*Starts frantically wiping clown makeup back off*r/CFB game thread

Baylor’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Baylor -8.5), at 82% for Baylor (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Baylor or Colorado flair (454 and 318); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Baylor’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Baylor scored on 5 of its 15 drives; Colorado on 3 of its 15.

Baylor’s drives are teal, Colorado’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Colorado’s side

Colorado’s best moment: Wilson 17-yd TD pass to Williams, ties it 13-13 (Q4 11:04). It lifted Colorado’s win chance by 14 points.

How Colorado fans took it: “At least we could probably afford to fire a g5 retread 4 years into their contract” r/CFB game thread

“Sawyer did it a lot last year”

A Baylor fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans had the most to say in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Baylor fans

lagway“Lagway can make plays every blue moon. Wish he was more reliable though”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, run, put, pass.

What it cost

Colorado’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Colorado · lost1% → ▼0%

Baylor · won3% → ▲4%

Win the conference

Colorado · lost1% → ▼0%

Baylor · won3% → ▲4%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Baylor 23, Colorado 13

Baylor covered −8.5 by 1.5. The total, 36, stayed under 54.5.

Team totals	Colorado	Baylor
Total yards	363	337
Passing	24 of 42, 280 yds	19 of 39, 221 yds
Rushing	39 for 83 yds	35 for 116 yds
First downs	24	22
Third down	3 of 15	6 of 17
Fourth down	0 of 2	0 of 1
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	9 for 82 yds	10 for 84 yds
Time of possession	31:26	28:34

Colorado leaders

Passing Isaac Wilson 12 of 25, 156 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Micah Welch 9 for 35 yds; Jaquail Smith 10 for 33 yds
Receiving Joseph Williams 11 for 127 yds, 1 TD; Quanell Farrakhan Jr. 7 for 117 yds

Baylor leaders

Passing D.J. Lagway 19 of 39, 221 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Dawson Pendergrass 16 for 85 yds; Caden Knighten 10 for 18 yds
Receiving Gavin Freeman 6 for 59 yds, 1 TD; Jayden McGowan 2 for 34 yds

No rain through the game

86° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 82°, with about 7 in 10 games between 72° and 89°.

September game-day temperatures at McLane Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 9:02 left2:10 p.m.

Colorado 13, Baylor 20 · Baylor 90% to win

no rain · 90°

Lagway 33-yd TD pass to Porter, Baylor goes ahead 20-13

Measured at Waco airport, 6.0 miles away, and Waco airport, 7.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Colorado · 2-1

Rated 163rd in our preseason ratings, 126th now, up 37 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Georgia Tech as a 6.5-point underdog.

L 7-41 @ NorthwesternTop 25 #15 of 668

lost by 34 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 52-21 vs Weber State #227 of 668

won by 31 as a 38.5-point favorite

W 14-13 @ Georgia Tech #78 of 668

won by 1 as a 6.5-point underdog

Last three games

Baylor · 2-1

Rated 33rd in our preseason ratings, 35th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 36-19 vs Louisiana Tech #91 of 668

won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 44-3 vs Prairie View A&M #108 of 668

won by 41 as a 37.5-point favorite

L 16-17 @ Auburn #70 of 668

lost by 1 as a 6.5-point underdog

Week by week

Baylor

Wk 1Lat Auburn16-17
Wk 2Wvs Prairie View A&M44-3
Wk 3Wvs Louisiana Tech36-19

Colorado

Wk 1Wat Georgia Tech14-13
Wk 2Wvs Weber State52-21
Wk 3Lat Northwestern7-41

Power rating by week

Baylor is rated 9.3 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Colorado’s rushing EPA against Baylor, 92 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Colorado’s EPA/play against Baylor’s defense
Colorado offense, 12th percentile · Baylor defense, 94th
Colorado’s rushing EPA against Baylor’s defense
Colorado offense, 6th percentile · Baylor defense, 98th
Baylor’s explosive plays against Colorado’s defense
Baylor offense, 92nd percentile · Colorado defense, 58th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ColoradoBaylor

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Colorado leads the series 10-7

17 meetings since 1959 · Colorado won the last meeting

2024Colorado 38-31
2010Baylor 31-25
2007Colorado 43-23
2006Baylor 34-31
2003Baylor 42-30

Each line is Baylor’s chance to win through that meeting. Baylor is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Baylor fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (57th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Baylor favored by 8.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Baylor by 8.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Baylor has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.9 points (±3.9), home against road — 5th percentile of FBS.

55% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (26-21 home, 20-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.8 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 741 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Colorado 38, Baylor 31Sep 21, 2024

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Baylor13th0-0
Colorado5th0-0

Full Big 12 standings

Baylor beats Colorado 23-13