Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 41-13vs Wisconsin | 19/29 | 239 | 2 | 0 | 8.2 | 81.3 | |
| Wk 2 | W 52-0vs Rice | 16/20 | 253 | 4 | 0 | 12.7 | 95.7 | Season-high 253 yds |
| Total | 35/49 | 492 | 6 | 0 | 10.4 | 88.5 |
#13
CJ Carr
Notre Dame went 0-2, ripped off ten straight, and still got left out of the Playoff. The redshirt-freshman QB who drove that run, CJ Carr, is now the Heisman favorite -- and Year 2 opens at the team that bounced him.
6′2″ · 215 lb · Saline, MI · Saline
CFB Index 67 · #35 of 146 QBsHigh confidencePOTY finalist (model)Returning to Notre Dame for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #35 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
492
passing yards · 2026
6 TD · 0 INT · 10 per attempt
2 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 253 pass yds, 4 TD, vs Rice
Swing playSwung Notre Dame from 44% to 65% to win.Navy at Notre Dame · 49-10
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Notre Dame went 0-2, ripped off ten straight, and still got left out of the Playoff. The redshirt-freshman QB who drove that run, CJ Carr, is now the Heisman favorite -- and Year 2 opens at the team that bounced him.
- Signed as a 4-star recruit to Notre Dame in 2024.
Aura™ · Him Watch
Hype = tape
-6aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 79th percentile of QBs; the tape says
85th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=196
— the discourse is fair.Aura — fan perception79th pctl
Production — on-field85th pctl
n=196 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = our passing-value metric (wEPA)
Buzz vs Tape
Fans warmer than rivals
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
24.6own fans
0rival fans
Marcus Freeman, CJ Carr and the 2026 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are back and ready for spring ball. What are the biggest questions? A big recruiting weekend, breaking down the running back room and more on this episode of the Irish Squad…
Also worth knowing:
In Their Words
1,696 windows · 2026 fan posts
dame×25.2notre×23.6carr×26.3irish×44.0heisman×17.7harbaugh×67.0downfield×43.4jadyn×83.7
“Notre Dame has zero chance to win the natty. All they have on offense is Carr”
youtube/The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast · fan post, verbatim
The story
That team is Miami, whose season-opening win over the Irish last fall became the exact tiebreaker the committee used to keep a 10-2 Notre Dame home. The schedule-makers put the rematch first. You couldn't script it crueler.
Here's what the box score buries: no returning quarterback in the country was blitzed more than Carr -- 36.7% of his dropbacks -- because defenses saw a first-year starter and came hunting. It backfired. When teams didn't blitz, nobody in America averaged more per dropback (9.4). He finished fifth nationally in efficiency and a Manning Award finalist as a freshman.
The bloodline is the subplot you'll hear all year: Carr was raised in Saline, Michigan -- grandson of Lloyd Carr, the man who won Michigan's last title in 1997 -- and he chose Notre Dame over the Wolverines. Now he carries the title hopes of the program Ann Arbor loves to hate.
The forward question isn't the arm; it's the margin. The independent path leaves almost none -- win at Miami and BYU and Resolves 2027-01-20.. Carr says his Year 2 leap is leadership and footwork, not numbers. The Irish haven't won it all since 1988. If the sophomore who shrugged off the blitz becomes the closer this program's been missing, the story stops being "good Notre Dame QB" and becomes "the one who ended the drought."
The record
A falsifiable call from this player's outlook. Not yet gradeable.
What we said
win at Miami and BYU for an 87%-likely Playoff bid; slip once and the snub debate reopens
Graded as: at least 1 College Football Playoff game in 2026.
What happened
Resolves 2027-01-20.
PENDINGHis career
Carr plays the position like a chess clock -- pre-snap he's already three moves ahead, and the ball is gone the instant his back foot lands. The surprise is where it's going: he's not a checkdown surgeon, he's a downfield one. His average throw traveled nearly fifteen yards in the air -- 94th-percentile depth -- and he still finished 92nd percentile in success rate and 96th in explosive passes. He takes shots, and he connects. What he doesn't do is run; thirty-three yards all season says he'd rather solve the problem than flee it. The edge is the flip side of the gift: when the first read's gone and the pocket caves, the anticipation that makes him lethal on schedule has less to lean on -- exactly the off-platform footwork he chased all offseason. In a 2026 where Notre Dame needs him to carry a title run, the question was never the deep ball; it's the third-and-8 when the script's gone.
Written by our staff.
2024
- Signed with Notre Dame4-star out of Saline
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Notre Dame
NFL
NFL Draft
—
2026 snapshot
Season context · Team result + system
2 seasons under Marcus Freeman — 12-2 over that span.
2025Notre Dame10-2HC: Marcus Freeman · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2026Notre Dame2-0HC: Marcus Freeman · Balanced
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidence
Elite: yards / att (92nd percentile). Strength: interceptions (92nd percentile). Concern: pass yards (0th percentile).
Box-score rates (8)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Splits & context
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 246 YDS/g, 3.0 TD/g, 10.4 YPA, 0.0 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Marcus Freeman
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
POTY finalist (model)
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
One of 52 players who were elite at two different things in 2025. See the others ›
Career stats
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Notre Dame | 35 | 49 | 71.4% | 492 | 10.0 | 6 | 0 | 196.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Notre Dame | 195 | 293 | 66.6% | 2,741 | 9.4 | 24 | 6 | 168.1 | 87 | -- | -- |
| Career | 230 | 342 | 67.3% | 3,233 | 9.5 | 30 | 6 | 172.1 | 87 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Notre Dame | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2025 | Notre Dame | 41 | 33 | 0.8 | 3 | -- |
| Career | 43 | 27 | 0.6 | 3 | -- |
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 41–13
vs Wisconsin
239 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 81.3 · -6 rush yds (2 car)
Dominant 28-point win at home against Wisconsin.
With A. Williams — 90 rush yds (20 car) · 2 TD · J. Scaife — 43 AVG · 46 LONG · 2 NO
Signature plays
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
- Week 2 · Rice · 2&11 · Q2 · EPA +4.07(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep right to #14 M.Gilbert caught at Rice00, for 39 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:17, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
- Week 1 · Wisconsin · 3&4 · Q4 · EPA +3.38(02:00) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #2 N.James Jr. caught at WIS24, for 28 yards to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:51, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
- Week 2 · Rice · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +2.90(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep left to #8 J.Bettis Jr. caught at Rice33, for 56 yards to the Rice06 (#7 A.Brown), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Rice · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.70(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep left to #6 J.Faison caught at Rice00, for 25 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:30, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
- Week 2 · Rice · 2&7 · Q1 · EPA +2.65(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at Rice14, for 11 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:51, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
- Week 1 · Wisconsin · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +2.53(00:14) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at UND40, for 29 yards to the WIS46 (#5 B.West; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Wisconsin · 2&3 · Q1 · EPA +2.21(00:26) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #88 J.Flanigan caught at Wis02, for 3 yards to the Wis00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
- Week 1 · Wisconsin · 2&7 · Q2 · EPA +2.21(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at Wis43, for 18 yards to the Wis43, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Rice · 3&4 · Q2 · EPA +2.12(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at UND49, for 9 yards to the Rice45 (#16 C.Nwajuaku; #10 K.Condoll), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Rice · 2&2 · Q3 · EPA +2.07(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #87 C.Flanagan caught at Rice00, for 2 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:41 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
Game log
How he plays
Play style
Carr plays the position like a chess clock -- pre-snap he's already three moves ahead, and the ball is gone the instant his back foot lands. The surprise is where it's going: he's not a checkdown surgeon, he's a downfield one. His average throw traveled nearly fifteen yards in the air -- 94th-percentile depth -- and he still finished 92nd percentile in success rate and 96th in explosive passes. He takes shots, and he connects. What he doesn't do is run; thirty-three yards all season says he'd rather solve the problem than flee it. The edge is the flip side of the gift: when the first read's gone and the pocket caves, the anticipation that makes him lethal on schedule has less to lean on -- exactly the off-platform footwork he chased all offseason. In a 2026 where Notre Dame needs him to carry a title run, the question was never the deep ball; it's the third-and-8 when the script's gone.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
2026 Outlook
Notre Dame
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · Notre Dame
Returning around him
- 51% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 6 Notre Dame players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -9 net (7 in / 16 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Notre Dame · Last season: 10-2 (AP #9) · Talent rank #6 · 2026 recruiting class #5
DNA match
Player DNA
Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Drew Mestemaker’s 2025 season.
72%match
All-AAC
Matches Drew on
Rush yards / carry
Yards / attempt
TD rate
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Kyle Trask’s path through Florida.
90%match
1st-team All-AmericanNFL Rd 2 · Pk 32
Matches Kyle on
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a freshman, his production profile tracks closest to Darian Mensah's freshman season at Tulane (2024).
57%match
All-ACC
Matches Darian on
Rush yards / carry
Differs from Darian on
Recruiting rating (higher)
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
Total pass EPA (college ability) (lower)
Player DNA
Players who play like CJ Carr
Heisman trajectory
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#4 in market ▼ from #1 · 6 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peak #5
Peaked at #5 — sustained finalist conversation.
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology