Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-17vs New Mexico State | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 0 | 24 | Season-high 50 yds |
| Wk 1 | L 24-27vs SMU | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 15 | Season-high 50 yds |
| Total | 5 | 75 | 14.6 | 0 | 24 |
DR
Duce Robinson
Duce Robinson is 6-6, led the ACC in receiving yards, and had a first-round grade in hand. He gave it back -- returning to Florida State to chase the breakout that turns a matchup nightmare into a top pick.
6′6″ · 230 lb · Phoenix, AZ · Pinnacle
CFB Index 83 · #23 of 485 WRsHigh confidenceNational watchReturning to Florida State for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #23 of 485 WRs; on reputation he is on a national watch list. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
75
receiving yards · 2026
5 catches · 15 per catch
2 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 9 rec · 147 yds · 1 TD -- top 1% receiving yards game. -- Best game: 3 rec, 50 yds, vs New Mexico State
Swing playSwung Florida State from 8% to 35% to win.Florida State at NC State · 21-11
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Duce Robinson is 6-6, led the ACC in receiving yards, and had a first-round grade in hand. He gave it back -- returning to Florida State to chase the breakout that turns a matchup nightmare into a top pick.
- Signed as a 5-star recruit to USC in 2023.
- Transferred from USC to Florida State in 2025.
- Named Preseason All-America in 2026.
Buzz vs Tape
Rivals warmer than fans
The rival fanbase is unexpectedly warm on him relative to his own.
19.7own fans
53.3rival fans
The Florida State Seminoles look to the future as Duce Robinson sets the standard for leadership, but all eyes are on Ousmane Kromah as the essential next group of FSU leaders to restore playoff ambitions. Can Kromah’s consistency and work…
Also worth knowing:
In Their Words
298 windows · 2026 fan posts
duce×359.0danzy×261.1jennings×66.0kam×50.4smu×18.2florida×6.7feel×17.3louisville×12.1
“[Hale] WR Duce Robinson: Seminoles 'feel the urgency' to turn fortunes around: "I came back to restore Florida State to its rightful place at the top of college football””
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
The story
Robinson's 2025 was a star turn: 56 catches, an ACC-leading 1,081 yards, six touchdowns, first-team All-ACC, a Phil Steele third-team All-America nod and a Biletnikoff semifinal berth. At 6-6, 222, the former USC transfer is a downfield and contested-catch problem few defenses can solve (18 contested grabs). He forwent the 2026 draft to come back. The forward stakes are the leap from very good to elite: he's already the ACC's most productive returning receiver, and Resolves 2027-06-30.. For a target this big who can run, 2026 is about consolidating the flashes into a complete season -- and being the player Florida State's offense runs through.
The record
A falsifiable call from this player's outlook. Not yet gradeable.
What we said
the matchup nightmare becomes a 2027 first-rounder
Graded as: selected in round 1 or better of the 2027 NFL Draft.
What happened
Resolves 2027-06-30.
PENDINGHis career
He arrived as a blue-chip recruit and played like one.
The week the volume broke through — put up 173 yds vs East Texas A&M.East Texas A&M · W 77-32025
Robinson is a big-bodied vertical weapon, and the data is emphatic on the deep ball: a 98th-percentile yards-per-catch (over 19 a grab), an 85th-percentile explosive-catch rate, and an 79th-percentile EPA per target -- a true field-stretcher despite his size. The honest counterweight is a 14th-percentile catch rate, the trade-off of a receiver who feasts on contested, downfield throws rather than easy completions -- the same profile his 18 contested catches describe. He's a back-shoulder, high-point, win-above-the-rim target rather than a quick-separation slot. At 6-6 with this kind of vertical juice, he's the matchup a defensive coordinator loses sleep over -- and the cleaner his catch rate gets, the closer he is to the first round.
Written by our staff.
20237 games
- Signed with USC5-star out of Pinnacle
202512 games
- Entered the portal
- All-ACCfirst
2026
- Preseason All-AmericaSecond Team
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🥇
ALL-AMERICA
All-America honors (2026)
1 mentions across the selector pool
🥈
ALL-ACC · 1ST TEAM
All-ACC 1st team (2025)
Badges
- Honors Badge
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
1 coach2023–2026
Florida State
Played his entire career under Mike Norvell.
2026 snapshot
Season context · Team result + system
2023USC8-5HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning, slow tempo
2024USC7-6HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning
2025Florida State5-7HC: Mike Norvell · Run-leaning
2026Florida State1-1HC: Mike Norvell · Run-heavy
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidenceBreakout
Concern: rec yards (0th percentile).
Box-score rates (8)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Splits & context
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 2.5 REC/g, 37.5 YDS/g, 14.6 YPR, 0.0 TD/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Norvell
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
National watch / fringe AA
In the All-America conversation, short of a selector's first team.
Recognition
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
2026 outlook
In the mix to repeat All-ACC
Based on 2025: #5 of 64 ACC WRs
How the All-ACC estimate is computed
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Selector Grid · 2026
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Career stats
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Florida State | 5 | 75 | 15.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2025 | Florida State | 56 | 1,074 | 19.2 | 6 | -- |
| 2024 | USC | 23 | 396 | 17.2 | 5 | -- |
| 2023 | USC | 16 | 351 | 21.9 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 100 | 1,896 | 19.0 | 13 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Florida State | -- | -12 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Florida State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2024 | USC | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | USC | -- | -- | -- | 10 | -- |
| Career | -- | -12 | -- | 10 | -- |
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 34–17
3 rec · 50 yds
With A. Daniels — 202 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · QBR 72.0 · 30 rush yds (8 car) · 1 TD · S. Singleton — 42 rush yds (9 car) · 1 TD
Game log
How he plays
Play style
Robinson is a big-bodied vertical weapon, and the data is emphatic on the deep ball: a 98th-percentile yards-per-catch (over 19 a grab), an 85th-percentile explosive-catch rate, and an 79th-percentile EPA per target -- a true field-stretcher despite his size. The honest counterweight is a 14th-percentile catch rate, the trade-off of a receiver who feasts on contested, downfield throws rather than easy completions -- the same profile his 18 contested catches describe. He's a back-shoulder, high-point, win-above-the-rim target rather than a quick-separation slot. At 6-6 with this kind of vertical juice, he's the matchup a defensive coordinator loses sleep over -- and the cleaner his catch rate gets, the closer he is to the first round.
Our classifier reads him the same way: beats you over the top.
2026 Outlook
Florida State
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Florida State
Returning around him
- 40% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 1 Florida State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -22 net (22 in / 44 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Florida State · Last season: 5-7 (AP #25) · Talent rank #21 · 2026 recruiting class #16
DNA match
Player DNA
Deep Threat
Stretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to KJ Duff’s 2025 season.
72%match
All-Big Ten
Matches KJ on
Weight
EPA / play (adj)
Differs from KJ on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Class year (higher)
Yards / reception (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Dennis Houston’s path through Western Illinois.
Dennis Houston
96%match
Matches Dennis on
Yards per reception
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Johnny Wilson's junior season at Florida State (2022).
74%match
All-ACCNFL Rd 6
Matches Johnny on
EPA / play (adj)
Height
Differs from Johnny on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Reception volume (higher)
Weight (lower)
Player DNA
Players who play like Duce Robinson
Background
ACCOLADES: 2025: First Team All-ACC...Third Team All-American (Phil Steele)...ACC Receiver of the Week (vs. East Texas A&M and Wake Forest)...First Team CSC Academic All-American...CSC Academic All-District...All-ACC Academic Team...ACC Academic Honor Roll...FSU Team Honors - Bill McGrotha Award,...
The receiver room · Florida State
- Duce Robinson1,074 receiving yards · 2025
- #8Micahi Danzy571 receiving yards · 2025
- #15Jayvan Boggs103 receiving yards · 2025
- #82Teriq Mallory14 receiving yards · 2025
- #84Brandon Bennettno box-score line yet
8 more on the roster · Florida State team page
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology