Minnesota 13-10 Iowa (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Iowa · Minnesota

No. 15 Iowa5-210

Minnesota5-213Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn. · Crowd 53,004

Minnesota beat No. 15 Iowa 13-10 as a 7.5-point underdog.

We had Iowa favored. Minnesota won.

Next: Iowa vs Wisconsin, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Iowa favored by 3.5

Next: Minnesota at Indiana, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Minnesota underdog by 20.5

Floyd ✅ Jug ✅ Axe ✅ Broken Chair ✅

A Minnesota fan

How it swung

The turning point: Drzewiecki 46-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 13-10 (Q4, 0:00). Minnesota went from 60% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Minnesota a 23% chance, and the closing betting line (Minnesota was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.

FinalMinnesota 13-10 IowaMinnesota wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q3 8:084th and 1Taylor 1-yd TD run, Minnesota goes ahead 10-3Minnesota 41% → 69% (+28)
2Q4 3:46Brown 37-yd TD pass to Vander Zee, ties it 10-10Minnesota 81% → 46% (−35)
3Q4 0:00Drzewiecki 46-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 13-10Minnesota 60% → 100% (+40)

The three plays that swung it

1Q3 8:084th and 1Taylor 1-yd TD run, Minnesota goes ahead 10-3Iowa 59% → 31% (−28)
2Q4 3:46Brown 37-yd TD pass to Vander Zee, ties it 10-10Iowa 19% → 54% (+35)
3Q4 0:00Drzewiecki 46-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 13-10Iowa 40% → 0% (−40)

2 minutes ago I was never watching Iowa football again

Q4 5:59 · An Iowa fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 6:40Iowa fans lament another turnover as Kingsbury intercepts BrownHonestly great game called by Minnesota's DCr/CFB game threadReally just the most believable sort of unbelievable gamer/CFB game thread
Q4 5:59Iowa fans celebrate a 98-yard touchdown drive that ties the gameHANK NEEDS 95+ YARDS TO SCORE OR ELSE HE IMPLODESr/CFB game thread
Q4 3:06Fans argue Iowa penalty call was wrong after identical formationYou get a flag. You get a flag. You get a flag.r/CFB game thread

Minnesota’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Iowa -7.5), at 36% for Minnesota (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Minnesota or Iowa flair (666 and 1,356); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Minnesota’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Minnesota scored on 3 of its 14 drives; Iowa on 2 of its 13.

Minnesota’s drives are teal, Iowa’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Iowa’s side

Iowa’s best moment: Brown 37-yd TD pass to Vander Zee, ties it 10-10 (Q4 3:46). It lifted Iowa’s win chance by 35 points.

How Iowa fans took it: “We’ve been out Iowa’d. GGs, Gophs.” r/CFB game thread

How fans reacted

Steady

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Minnesota fans

harbaugh“Harbaugh is just great at immediately losing momentum”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: refs, call, now, hate.

Too close to call on 55% of plays.

What it cost

Iowa’s chance to make the playoff fell from 4% to 1%.

Make the playoff

Iowa · lost4% → ▼1%

Minnesota · won0% → ▲1%

Win the conference

Iowa · lost1% → ▼0%

Minnesota · won0% → 0%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Iowa plays vs Wisconsin on Sat Oct 31 with a 1% chance to make the playoff. Minnesota plays at Indiana on Sat Oct 31 with a 1% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Minnesota 13, Iowa 10

Minnesota covered +7.5 by 10.5. The total, 23, stayed under 40.5.

Team totals	Iowa	Minnesota
Total yards	288	209
Passing	20 of 37, 198 yds	14 of 27, 137 yds
Rushing	30 for 90 yds	35 for 72 yds
First downs	16	11
Third down	4 of 16	2 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	4	1
Penalties	6 for 25 yds	6 for 50 yds
Time of possession	31:07	28:53

Iowa leaders

Passing Hank Brown 11 of 21, 136 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing L.J. Phillips Jr. 7 for 25 yds; Kamari Moulton 10 for 22 yds
Receiving Reece Vander Zee 4 for 69 yds, 1 TD; Tony Diaz 1 for 57 yds

Minnesota leaders

Passing Drake Lindsey 14 of 26, 137 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Xavier Ford 8 for 33 yds; Javon Tracy 2 for 22 yds
Receiving Javon Tracy 7 for 45 yds; Jalen Smith 1 for 39 yds

No rain, gusts to 28 mph

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 12 mph from the west, mostly along the field, gusts to 28

A 28 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 92% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

The usual here around this date is 48°, with about 7 in 10 games between 33° and 64°.

October game-day temperatures at Huntington Bank Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:00 left5:58 p.m.

Iowa 10, Minnesota 13 · Minnesota 100% to win

no rain · wind 11 mph from the northwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 17 · 61°

Drzewiecki 46-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 13-10

The same game in two conditions

	Wind 15 mph or more	Lighter wind
Runs and passes	29	90
Share that were passes	48%	50%
Yards per play	4.8	4.2
Turnovers	2	3

The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result.

How this is counted

Wind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Minneapolis airport, 6.3 miles away, and St. Paul airport, 8.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

This is Floyd of Rosedale — see the full head-to-head history →

Recent games

Last three games

Iowa · 5-1

Rated 13th in our preseason ratings, 17th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 17-point win over Washington as a 3-point underdog.

W 41-24 @ WashingtonTop 25 No. 35 of 668 teams

won by 17 as a 3-point underdog

L 14-31 vs Ohio StateTop 25 No. 2 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 14.5-point underdog

W 20-19 @ MichiganTop 25 No. 20 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 55-0 vs Northern Iowa No. 160 of 668 teams

won by 55 as a 37.5-point favorite

W 16-13 vs Iowa State No. 138 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 14-point favorite

W 40-0 vs Northern Illinois No. 95 of 668 teams

won by 40 as a 31.5-point favorite

Last three games

Minnesota · 4-2

Rated 29th in our preseason ratings, 64th now, down 35 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 6-point win over Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog.

L 13-41 @ Purdue No. 79 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 20-14 vs MichiganTop 25 No. 24 of 668 teams

won by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 27-24 @ WashingtonTop 25 No. 29 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog

W 41-7 vs Akron No. 67 of 668 teams

won by 34 as a 22.5-point favorite

L 13-38 vs Mississippi StateTop 25 No. 106 of 668 teams

lost by 25 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 59-7 vs Eastern Illinois No. 200 of 668 teams

won by 52 as a 42.5-point favorite

Week by week

Minnesota

Wk 2Lvs Mississippi State13-38
Wk 3Wvs Akron41-7
Wk 4Wat Washington27-24
Wk 5Wvs Michigan20-14
Wk 6Lat Purdue13-41

Iowa

Wk 2Wvs Iowa State16-13
Wk 3Wvs Northern Iowa55-0
Wk 4Wat Michigan20-19
Wk 5Lvs Ohio State14-31
Wk 6Wat Washington41-24

Power rating by week

Iowa is rated 7.2 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Minnesota’s rushing EPA against Iowa, 97 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Minnesota’s rushing EPA against Iowa’s defense
Minnesota offense, 3rd percentile · Iowa defense, 100th
Minnesota’s explosive plays against Iowa’s defense
Minnesota offense, 17th percentile · Iowa defense, 87th
Minnesota’s EPA/play against Iowa’s defense
Minnesota offense, 17th percentile · Iowa defense, 84th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

IowaMinnesota

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Minnesota leads the series 62-54-2

118 meetings since 1901 · Iowa has won the last 2

2025Iowa 41-3
2024Iowa 31-14
2023Minnesota 12-10
2022Iowa 13-10
2021Iowa 27-22

Each line is Minnesota’s chance to win through that meeting. Minnesota is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Minnesota fans are in a better mood than Iowa fans (90th percentile vs 38th among FBS fanbases), even with Iowa favored.

Iowa favored by 7.5 · Total 40.5

How games like this usually go

Iowa by 7.5, on the usual path until 1:56 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Iowa.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Minnesota is worth +4.6 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 61st percentile.

67% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (35-17 home, 19-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.8 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 244 miles to get here.

The story going in

Iowa QB1 named for Week 8Oct 19, 2026

Last meeting in our History pages

Iowa 41, Minnesota 3Oct 25, 2025

Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Minnesota6th2-1
Iowa8th2-1

Full Big Ten standings

Minnesota upsets No. 15 Iowa 13-10