No. 24 Louisville routs Villanova 59-13
Team pages: Villanova · Louisville
No. 24 Louisville routed Villanova 59-13. Share this game
We had Louisville favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
Anyone else lose audio?
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisville an 89% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisville was a 39.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.
Louisville led by 14 after the first quarter and by 21 at the half.
Louisville 59-13 Villanova
Louisville wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Villanova 13-59 LouisvilleVillanova lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 12:16Fans complain about missing audio on ACCN and YouTube TV broadcasts
No audio on YouTube TV (ACCN)
r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page. - Q1 6:28Villanova fans lament McQuaide's missed throw to a wide open receiver
Man, I could have made that throw
r/CFB game thread - Q1 0:58Kienholz throws 69-yard touchdown pass to Skinner as Louisville fans celebrate
Lol finally hits him and he drops the pass lol that is hilarious
r/CFB game threadBro…your flairs make me uncomfortable
r/CFB game thread - Q2 14:50Louisville fans celebrate Kienholz touchdown while mocking Villanova QB's ignored celebration
Lincoln “the White Lamar” Kienholz
r/CFB game threadOk, we're just the most entertaining team in the country if you're not rooting for anyone
r/CFB game thread - Q2 11:56Louisville fans blame kickers after Myers punts to the 3-yard line
Kickers = Public enemy #1
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Louisville -39.5), at 99% for Louisville (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Louisville’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 4:33Kienholz 19-yd TD runLouisville goes ahead 10-3Q1, 4:33 · Louisville 10, Villanova 310-3score after the play10-3score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 0:14Kienholz 69-yd TD pass to SkinnerLouisville leads 17-3Q1, 0:14 · Louisville 17, Villanova 317-3score after the play17-3score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 14:50McQuaide 65-yd TD pass to Macecuts it to 17-10Q2, 14:50 · Louisville 17, Villanova 1017-10score after the play17-10score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 13:24Kienholz 61-yd TD pass to McCoyLouisville leads 24-10Q2, 13:24 · Louisville 24, Villanova 1024-10score after the play24-10score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 7:59Davis 6-yd runfumblesQ3, 7:59 · Louisville 31, Villanova 1031-10score after the play31-10score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 7:50Jennings 15-yd TD runLouisville leads 38-10Q3, 7:50 · Louisville 38, Villanova 1038-10score after the play38-10score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 0:07Davis 3-yd TD runLouisville leads 45-13Q3, 0:07 · Louisville 45, Villanova 1345-13score after the play45-13score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 12:36Wydner 2-yd TD pass to JenningsLouisville leads 52-13Q4, 12:36 · Louisville 52, Villanova 1352-13score after the play52-13score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 7:04Davis 4-yd TD runLouisville leads 59-13Q4, 7:04 · Louisville 59, Villanova 1359-13score after the play59-13score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Louisville scored on 9 of its 13 drives; Villanova on 3 of its 12.
Louisville’s drives are teal, Villanova’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“Lincoln “the White Lamar” Kienholz”
When fans got loud
Firestorm
Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.
The jump was firestorm; the crowd was quiet.
Box score
Louisville 59, Villanova 13
Louisville covered −39.5 by 6.5. The total, 72, went over 56.5.
| Team totals | Villanova | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 253 | 635 |
| Passing | 20 of 34, 178 yds | 21 of 28, 375 yds |
| Rushing | 28 for 75 yds | 38 for 260 yds |
| First downs | 15 | 29 |
| Third down | 4 of 14 | 5 of 8 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 7 for 64 yds | 7 for 90 yds |
| Time of possession | 30:51 | 29:09 |
Villanova leaders
- Passing Pat McQuaide 18 of 31, 166 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Isaiah Ragland 9 for 34 yds; Ja'briel Mace 6 for 20 yds
- Receiving Ja'briel Mace 3 for 73 yds, 1 TD; Braden Reed 6 for 50 yds
Louisville leaders
- Passing Lincoln Kienholz 16 of 21, 332 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Marquise Davis 7 for 86 yds, 2 TD; Isaac Brown 13 for 61 yds
- Receiving Lawayne McCoy 3 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Tre Richardson 7 for 98 yds
No rain through the game
81° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Louisville International airport, 2.5 miles away, and Louisville/bowman airport, 5.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Villanova · 1-1
Rated 137th in our preseason ratings, 146th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games · 2025 season
Louisville · 9-4
Rated 61st in our preseason ratings, 58th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 41-point win over Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog.
W 27-22 vs Toledo #29 of 667
won by 5 as an 11.5-point favorite
W 41-0 vs Kentucky #56 of 667
won by 41 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 6-38 @ SMUTop 25 #11 of 667
lost by 32 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 19-20 vs ClemsonTop 25 #28 of 667
lost by 1 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 26-29 vs California #83 of 667
lost by 3 as an 18.5-point favorite
W 28-16 @ Virginia Tech #80 of 667
won by 12 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 38-24 vs Boston College #99 of 667
won by 14 as a 25.5-point favorite
W 24-21 @ MiamiTop 25 #7 of 667
won by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog
L 27-30 vs VirginiaTop 25 #38 of 667
lost by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 34-27 @ PittsburghTop 25 #63 of 667
won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 40-17 vs Bowling Green #98 of 667
won by 23 as a 25.5-point favorite
W 28-14 vs James MadisonTop 25 #76 of 667
won by 14 as a 15.5-point favorite
W 51-17 vs Eastern Kentucky #159 of 667
won by 34 as a 37.5-point favorite
Week by week
Louisville
- Wk 1Lat Ole Miss38-41
Villanova
- Wk 1Lvs William & Mary32-35
- Wk 1Wat Bucknell17-16
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Louisville’s chances here.
Louisville favored by 39.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
Louisville by 39.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Louisville.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −36.5 → −39.5 · Total: 55.5 → 56.5
Home field
Louisville is worth +5.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.
60% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (30-20 home, 16-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.8 at home vs. away over 95 games — outside the ±6.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 572 miles to get here.