Illinois 21-10 Oregon (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Oregon · Illinois

Oregon4-310

Illinois4-321Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL), Champaign, Ill. · Crowd 58,723BTN

Illinois beat No. 25 Oregon 21-10 as a 10.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 8%.

Winners have been down to 8% or less in about 1 of every 14 games since 2018.

We had Oregon favored. Illinois won.

Next: Oregon vs Northwestern, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Oregon favored by 3.5

Next: Illinois at Maryland, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Illinois favored by 2.5

Oh so NOW everyone wants to watch the Illini…

An Illinois fan

How it swung

The turning point: Clayton 23-yd TD pass to Dixon, Illinois leads 21-10 (Q4, 2:29). Illinois went from 76% to 93% to win. Fans right then: “If oRegoN wIns OuT tHeY wiLL bE iN tEh pLayOFFs” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Illinois a 12% chance, and the closing betting line (Illinois was a 10.5-point underdog) put it at 20%.

75-yard TD run

Illinois · Q2 2:1521 unanswered

Illinois · Q3 9:22

FinalIllinois 21-10 OregonIllinois wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 2:29Clayton 23-yd TD pass to Dixon, Illinois leads 21-10Illinois 76% → 93% (+17)
2Q4 1:134th and 2Raiola 6-yd pass to LewisIllinois 95% → 79% (−16)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 2:29Clayton 23-yd TD pass to Dixon, Illinois leads 21-10Oregon 24% → 7% (−17)
2Q4 1:134th and 2Raiola 6-yd pass to LewisOregon 5% → 21% (+16)

Oregon has to fire Mehringer. There is no other option here. The guy should be finding his own way home from Illinois. This is just god awful

Q3 1:06 · An Oregon fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 0:17Oregon fans lament sloppy offense as Raiola fumbles on sackRaiola's decision making is low tier. His deep ball is low tier. Mehringer calls up multiple plays that rely on this. Thankfully our defense gave our offense a first down.r/CFB game thread
Q2 2:15Laughery runs 75 yards for touchdown as Oregon fans lament defensive collapseWeekly Koi Perich is ass postr/CFB game thread
Q3 1:06Oregon fans demand firing Mehringer after he calls a screen pass on third downNothing like a Mehringer circus formation to go backwards and kill a driver/CFB game thread
Q4 6:04Oregon fans rip coach Mehringer after Raiola misses open receiver before missed field goalMehringer should be flying home coachr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:32Officials uphold Illinois touchdown, sealing 21-10 win over OregonLmao ducks about to lose to Illinois I remember when they joined the conference and their fans complained like they were above playing Illinoisr/CFB game threadOur interception was not a “total loss of control” either. How can they overturn one and not the other?r/CFB game thread
Q4 2:00Oregon fans mock Dan Lanning for using timeouts while trailing Illinois 21-10If oRegoN wIns OuT tHeY wiLL bE iN tEh pLayOFFsr/CFB game threadThat was a textbook perfect pass breakup. Wow.r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:41Oregon fans rage at Dan Lanning for burning timeouts while Raiola fails to scoreIf oRegoN wIns OuT tHeY wiLL bE iN tEh pLayOFFsr/CFB game threadMichigan-Oregon is gonna be... somethingr/CFB game thread

Illinois’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oregon -10.5), at 28% for Illinois (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Illinois or Oregon flair (278 and 1,095); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Illinois’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Illinois scored on 3 of its 12 drives; Oregon on 2 of its 13.

Illinois’s drives are teal, Oregon’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Oregon’s side

Oregon’s best moment: Raiola 6-yd pass to Lewis (Q4 1:13). It lifted Oregon’s win chance by 16 points.

How Oregon fans took it: “If oRegoN wIns OuT tHeY wiLL bE iN tEh pLayOFFs” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Roaring

Fans saved the biggest reaction for the closing minutes.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was busy.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Mehringer is a terrorist”

A fan of another team

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Oregon fans

mehringer“Nothing like a Mehringer circus formation to go backwards and kill a drive”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, lost, look.

The winner fell to 8%.

What it cost

Oregon’s chance to make the playoff fell from 26% to 12%.

Make the playoff

Oregon · lost26% → ▼12%

Illinois · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Oregon · lost11% → ▼4%

Illinois · won0% → 0%

Win the title

Oregon · lost3% → ▼2%

Illinois · won0% → 0%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Oregon plays vs Northwestern on Sat Oct 31 with a 12% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Illinois 21, Oregon 10

Illinois covered +10.5 by 21.5. The total, 31, stayed under 49.5.

Team totals	Oregon	Illinois
Total yards	426	314
Passing	27 of 41, 246 yds	12 of 19, 89 yds
Rushing	32 for 180 yds	39 for 225 yds
First downs	21	15
Third down	4 of 15	8 of 16
Fourth down	2 of 2	0 of 0
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	5 for 30 yds	5 for 32 yds
Time of possession	29:15	30:45

Oregon leaders

Passing Dylan Raiola 27 of 41, 246 yds
Rushing Jordon Davison 14 for 92 yds, 1 TD; Dierre Hill Jr. 13 for 83 yds
Receiving Dakorien Moore 9 for 70 yds; Jamari Johnson 7 for 69 yds

Illinois leaders

Passing Michael Clayton II 11 of 18, 84 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Aidan Laughery 13 for 123 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Anderson 11 for 67 yds
Receiving Collin Dixon 6 for 65 yds, 1 TD; Christian Abney 2 for 13 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

72° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 13

The usual here around this date is 57°, with about 7 in 10 games between 41° and 72°.

October game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 2:29 left4:47 p.m.

Oregon 10, Illinois 21 · Illinois 93% to win

no rain · wind 6 mph from the south-southeast · 71°

Clayton 23-yd TD pass to Dixon, Illinois leads 21-10

Measured at Champaign - Willard airport, 5.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Oregon · 4-2

Rated 3rd in our preseason ratings, 10th now.

2-1 in its last three, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 17-14 vs Nebraska No. 15 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 15-17 vs UCLATop 25 No. 21 of 668 teams

lost by 2 as a 10-point favorite

W 41-27 @ USCTop 25 No. 25 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 84-0 vs Portland State No. 244 of 668 teams

won by 84 as a 58.5-point favorite

L 31-39 @ Oklahoma StateTop 25 No. 231 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 34-27 vs Boise StateTop 25 No. 29 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 24.5-point favorite

Last three games

Illinois · 3-3

Rated 70th in our preseason ratings, 80th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 38-37 @ Michigan State No. 132 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 17-24 vs Purdue No. 106 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

L 19-42 @ Ohio StateTop 25 No. 2 of 668 teams

lost by 23 as a 25.5-point underdog

W 48-10 vs Southern Illinois No. 154 of 668 teams

won by 38 as a 34.5-point favorite

L 27-31 vs DukeTop 25 No. 67 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 6-point favorite

W 42-23 vs UAB No. 55 of 668 teams

won by 19 as a 25.5-point favorite

Week by week

Illinois

Wk 2Lvs Duke27-31
Wk 3Wvs Southern Illinois48-10
Wk 4Lat Ohio State19-42
Wk 5Lvs Purdue17-24
Wk 6Wat Michigan State38-37

Oregon

Wk 2Lat Oklahoma State31-39
Wk 3Wvs Portland State84-0
Wk 4Wat USC41-27
Wk 6Lvs UCLA15-17
Wk 7Wvs Nebraska17-14

Power rating by week

Oregon is rated 11.9 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Illinois’s explosive plays against Oregon, 42 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oregon’s EPA/play against Illinois’s defense
Oregon offense, 41st percentile · Illinois defense, 6th
Oregon’s passing EPA against Illinois’s defense
Oregon offense, 48th percentile · Illinois defense, 9th
Illinois’s explosive plays against Oregon’s defense
Illinois offense, 68th percentile · Oregon defense, 26th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

OregonIllinois

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Oregon leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 1970 · Oregon has won the last 3

2024Oregon 38-9
1995Oregon 34-31
1993Oregon 13-7
1970Illinois 20-16

Each line is Illinois’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Oregon fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (14th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Oregon favored by 10.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Oregon by 10.5, on the usual path until Q3 9:22

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Illinois.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Illinois is worth +3.2 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 31st percentile.

53% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (27-24 home, 18-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.6 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,793 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Illinois12th1-2
Oregon9th2-1

Full Big Ten standings

Illinois upsets No. 25 Oregon 21-10

How it swung

Watch the plays

Every drive

From Oregon’s side

When fans got loud

Two crowds, one game

What it cost

Box score

Oregon leaders

Illinois leaders

No rain and calm

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Illinois

Oregon

Power rating by week

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Illinois’s explosive plays against Oregon, 42 points

Season profile

The series

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Oregon by 10.5, on the usual path until Q3 9:22

The market

Home field

Where next

Conference standings