No. 14 USC beats Louisiana 49-30
No. 14 USC beat Louisiana 49-30. Share this game
We had USC favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
Trent Mosley and Mark Bowman are our future! Whoever is QB next year better be ready!!!
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave USC a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (USC was a 30.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.
USC led by 4 after the first quarter and by 18 at the half.
Favored the whole way: USC never fell below 96%.
Louisiana never had better than a 4% chance.
USC · Q2 1:24USC 49-30 Louisiana
USC wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Louisiana 30-49 USCLouisiana lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 0:51USC fans react to Bowman's hurdle and 35-yard gain
Bowman is everything Duce Robinson should have been it only took him 2 games
r/CFB game threadUNLEASH BOWMAN
r/CFB game thread - Q2 12:31USC fans react to Bowman's injury and late hit after touchdown
Wind knocked out of him. Think he’s good
r/CFB game threadHope it’s just the wind knocked out
r/CFB game thread - Q2 4:56Maiava 16-yd pass to Bowman
Maiava we gotta clean that up before Oregon lol
r/CFB game thread - Q2 1:24Freshman Mosley returns punt 86 yards for touchdown, energizing USC fansQuoted at the top of the page.
- Q3 9:48Maiava 21-yd TD pass to Mosley, USC leads 35-10
dawg trent mosley lmaoooo. this is insane.
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (USC -30.5), at 98% for USC (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show USC’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 13:34Maiava intercepted by Demery at the USC 44Q1, 13:34 · USC 0, Louisiana 00-0score after the play0-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q1, 4:57Maiava 5-yd TD pass to BowmanUSC goes ahead 7-3Q1, 4:57 · USC 7, Louisiana 37-3score after the play7-3score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 12:31Maiava 9-yd TD pass to BowmanUSC leads 14-3Q2, 12:31 · USC 14, Louisiana 314-3score after the play14-3score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 9:21Blanco 1-yd TD runcuts it to 14-10Q2, 9:21 · USC 14, Louisiana 1014-10score after the play14-10score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 1:24Mosley 86-yd punt return TDUSC leads 28-10Q2, 1:24 · USC 28, Louisiana 1028-10score after the play28-10score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q3, 9:48Maiava 21-yd TD pass to MosleyUSC leads 35-10Q3, 9:48 · USC 35, Louisiana 1035-10score after the play35-10score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 14:19Maiava 44-yd TD pass to Williams; personal foul on UlUSC leads 42-17Q4, 14:19 · USC 42, Louisiana 1742-17score after the play42-17score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 11:27Winfield 32-yd TD runcuts it to 42-23Q4, 11:27 · USC 42, Louisiana 2342-23score after the play42-23score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 7:30Miller 12-yd TD runUSC leads 49-23Q4, 7:30 · USC 49, Louisiana 2349-23score after the play49-23score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 2:38Winfield 14-yd TD pass to Babineauxcuts it to 49-30Q4, 2:38 · USC 49, Louisiana 3049-30score after the play49-30score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
Every drive
USC scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Louisiana on 5 of its 10.
USC’s drives are teal, Louisiana’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“Trent Mosley and Mark Bowman are our future! Whoever is QB next year better be ready!!!”
How fans reacted
Steady
The second quarter is when fans got loud.
The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.
What it cost
Louisiana’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 1%.
Make the playoff
Before the game (September 12, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
USC 49, Louisiana 30
Louisiana covered +30.5 by 11.5. The total, 79, went over 58.5.
| Team totals | Louisiana | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 358 | 483 |
| Passing | 16 of 22, 212 yds | 20 of 31, 269 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 146 yds | 40 for 214 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 25 |
| Third down | 3 of 10 | 11 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 6 for 60 yds | 8 for 78 yds |
| Time of possession | 26:46 | 33:14 |
Louisiana leaders
- Passing D'Wayne' Winfield 16 of 22, 212 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing D'Wayne' Winfield 14 for 91 yds, 2 TD; JJ Garner 5 for 26 yds
- Receiving Russell Babineaux 6 for 91 yds, 1 TD; Brock Chappell 3 for 47 yds
USC leaders
- Passing Jayden Maiava 19 of 29, 261 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing King Miller 18 for 128 yds, 1 TD; Waymond Jordan 10 for 47 yds
- Receiving Mark Bowman 6 for 83 yds, 2 TD; Zach Williams 1 for 44 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
73° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the west-southwest, gusts to 12
September game-day temperatures at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Hawthorne Municipal airport, 6.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Louisiana · 6-7
Rated 35th in our preseason ratings, 35th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Arkansas State as a 2.5-point underdog.
L 13-20 @ Delaware #144 of 667
lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 30-27 vs UL Monroe #191 of 667
won by 3 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 34-30 @ Arkansas State #141 of 667
won by 4 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 42-39 vs Texas State #86 of 667
won by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 31-22 @ South Alabama #121 of 667
won by 9 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 23-35 @ Troy #84 of 667
lost by 12 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 10-22 vs Southern Miss #91 of 667
lost by 12 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 14-24 @ James MadisonTop 25 #64 of 667
lost by 10 as an 18.5-point underdog
W 54-51 vs Marshall #87 of 667
won by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 31-34 @ Eastern Michigan #162 of 667
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 10-52 @ MissouriTop 25 #11 of 667
lost by 42 as a 27.5-point underdog
W 34-10 vs McNeese #187 of 667
won by 24 as a 19.5-point favorite
L 12-14 vs Rice #114 of 667
lost by 2 as a 9.5-point favorite
Last two games
USC · 2-0
Rated 28th in our preseason ratings, 30th now.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
USC
- Wk 1Wvs San José State42-26
- Wk 1Wvs Fresno State39-0
Louisiana
- Wk 1Wvs Lamar38-7
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: USC’s passing EPA against Louisiana, 47 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
USC’s passing EPA against Louisiana’s defense
USC offense, 97th percentile · Louisiana defense, 50th
USC’s explosive plays against Louisiana’s defense
USC offense, 57th percentile · Louisiana defense, 100th
USC’s success rate against Louisiana’s defense
USC offense, 96th percentile · Louisiana defense, 55th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Louisiana fans are in a better mood than USC fans (82nd vs 50th among FBS fanbases), even with USC favored.
- Model · 61%
- Line · 99%
- USC fans · 50th
- Louisiana fans · 82nd
USC favored by 30.5 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go
USC by 30.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward USC.
The total fell 5 points.
Spread: −28.5 → −30.5 · Total: 63.5 → 58.5
The books’ cut: 3.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 75° at kickoff.
Louisiana at USC · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles
- 75°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 4 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's four kickoff times. At Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum that day, a 12:30 pm kickoff would have scored 80, against 100 at 7:30 pm.
- 12:30 pm: 80, Mixed
- 4:15 pm: 94, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 99, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
USC is worth +5.5 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 74th percentile.
70% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-16 home, 22-20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.0 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±4.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,554 miles to get here.