Boise State 38-20 Memphis (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Memphis · Boise State

Memphis2-120

Boise State1-138Final

Sat, Sep 12 · Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho · Crowd 34,439

Boise State beat Memphis 38-20.

We had Boise State favored. It won.

Next: Memphis beat UT Martin 45-21, Sat Sep 19

Next: Boise State beat South Dakota 38-24, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

The forward pass is Boise State’s greatest enemy BAN THE FORWARD PASS

Q2 10:44 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Riley 22-yd run (Q2, 7:04). Boise State went from 29% to 62% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Boise State an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Boise State was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Boise State came back from 14 down, at one point just a 21% chance in the second quarter.

Memphis led by 14, was as high as 79% in the second quarter, and still lost.

87-yard TD passQ1 2:1480-yard TD runQ2 7:10Punt return TD

Boise State · Q3 6:27

FinalBoise State 38-20 MemphisBoise State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 7:04Riley 22-yd runBoise State 29% → 62% (+33)
2Q2 1:07Jones 19-yd TD run, ties it 17-17Boise State 53% → 72% (+19)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 7:04Riley 22-yd runMemphis 71% → 38% (−33)
2Q2 1:07Jones 19-yd TD run, ties it 17-17Memphis 47% → 28% (−19)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 10:44Memphis fans celebrate Stokes' 68-yard pass as Boise State fans panicQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 1:40Riley's 71-yard run sparks Boise State comeback hopes before halftimeRiley is such a stud dude. Just give him the ball!r/CFB game thread
Q3 12:51That’s Memphis’ ball but aightr/CFB game threadPAC 12. You gotta fix your refs manr/CFB game thread

Boise State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Boise State -9.5), at 81% for Boise State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Boise State or Memphis flair (918 and 208); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Boise State scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Memphis on 4 of its 11.

Boise State’s drives are teal, Memphis’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Memphis bros might have more baby Jesus on their side”

A Boise State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The biggest reaction came in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

What it cost

Memphis’s chance to make the playoff fell from 11% to 6%.

Make the playoff

Memphis · lost11% → ▼6%

Boise State · won9% → ▲12%

Win the conference

Memphis · lost30% → ▼28%

Boise State · won28% → ▲29%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Boise State 38, Memphis 20

Boise State covered −9.5 by 8.5. The total, 58, went over 54.5.

Team totals	Memphis	Boise State
Total yards	519	578
Passing	17 of 26, 384 yds	17 of 28, 221 yds
Rushing	26 for 135 yds	47 for 357 yds
First downs	17	28
Third down	1 of 8	6 of 14
Fourth down	0 of 2	2 of 3
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	5 for 54 yds	10 for 87 yds
Time of possession	20:04	39:56

Memphis leaders

Passing Marcus Stokes 17 of 25, 384 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jaylin Carter 9 for 95 yds, 1 TD; Marcus Stokes 11 for 24 yds
Receiving Hunter Tipton 9 for 229 yds, 1 TD; Terrell Timmons Jr. 1 for 68 yds

Boise State leaders

Passing Maddux Madsen 17 of 28, 221 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Dylan Riley 19 for 206 yds; Sire Gaines 17 for 93 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Akeem Wright 4 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Rasean Jones 3 for 61 yds

No rain and calm

87° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the east, mostly across the field, gusts to 18

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 73 other games played at Albertsons Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 71°, with about 7 in 10 games between 61° and 80°.

September game-day temperatures at Albertsons Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 7:04 left5:20 p.m.

Memphis 17, Boise State 3 · Boise State 62% to win

no rain · wind 6 mph from the east · 89°

Riley 22-yd run

Measured at Boise Municipal airport, 3.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Memphis · 2-0

Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 97th now.

Two straight wins, including a 6-point win over UNLV as a 4.5-point underdog.

W 42-24 vs Arkansas State #161 of 668

won by 18 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 27-21 @ UNLV #91 of 668

won by 6 as a 4.5-point underdog

Last three games · 2025 season

Boise State · 9-5

Rated 37th in our preseason ratings, 29th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-38 @ WashingtonTop 25 #12 of 667

lost by 28 as a 10-point underdog

W 38-21 vs UNLV #57 of 667

won by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 25-24 @ Utah State #90 of 667

won by 1 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 49-21 vs Colorado State #185 of 667

won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 7-17 @ San Diego State #62 of 667

lost by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 7-30 vs Fresno State #108 of 667

lost by 23 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 24-3 @ Nevada #182 of 667

won by 21 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 56-31 vs UNLV #88 of 667

won by 25 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 41-25 vs New Mexico #107 of 667

won by 16 as a 15.5-point favorite

L 7-28 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 21 as a 21.5-point underdog

W 47-14 vs App State #129 of 667

won by 33 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 49-37 @ Air Force #143 of 667

won by 12 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 51-14 vs Eastern Washington #180 of 667

won by 37 as a 33.5-point favorite

L 7-34 @ South FloridaTop 25 #56 of 667

lost by 27 as a 5.5-point favorite

Week by week

Boise State

Wk 1Lat Oregon27-34

Memphis

Wk 1Wat UNLV27-21
Wk 1Wvs Arkansas State42-24

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Memphis’s explosive plays against Boise State, 82 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Memphis’s explosive plays against Boise State’s defense
Memphis offense, 82nd percentile · Boise State defense, 0th
Boise State’s rushing EPA against Memphis’s defense
Boise State offense, 84th percentile · Memphis defense, 21st
Boise State’s EPA/play against Memphis’s defense
Boise State offense, 91st percentile · Memphis defense, 53rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MemphisBoise State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Memphis leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2023 · Memphis won the last meeting

2023Memphis 35-32

Each line is Boise State’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Memphis fans are in a better mood than Boise State fans (84th vs 23rd among FBS fanbases), even with Boise State favored.

Boise State favored by 9.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Boise State by 9.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Boise State.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 88° at kickoff.

Memphis at Boise State · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Albertsons Stadium, Boise

88°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
67weather score, Rough
Roughestof the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At Albertsons Stadium that day, a 8 pm kickoff would have scored 97, against 67 at 4 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

1:30 pm: 70, Rough
4 pm: 67, Rough (this game)
5 pm: 74, Rough
7 pm: 93, Comfortable
8 pm: 97, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Boise State is worth +3.9 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 45th percentile.

79% at home, 69% on the road against FBS opponents (37-10 home, 34-15 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,510 miles to get here.

Boise State beats Memphis 38-20