App State upsets James Madison 34-31 in overtime
Team pages: James Madison · App State
App State beat James Madison 34-31 in overtime as a 12.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 6%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 6% or less in about 1 of every 20 games since 2018.
We had James Madison favored. App State won.
Next: James Madison vs Troy, Thu Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ET · James Madison favored by 21
Next: App State at Georgia Southern, Sat Oct 31 · 6:30 PM ET · App State underdog by 5.5
Top comment in the game thread
Can we boot this color guy…geez
How it swung
The turning point: London 40-yd field goal, App State goes ahead 34-31 (OT). App State went from 14% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave App State a 14% chance, and the closing betting line (App State was a 12.5-point underdog) put it at 16%.
App State 34-31 James Madison
App State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.James Madison 31-34 App StateJames Madison lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The five plays that swung it
- 1Q4 5:52Hasselbeck 4-yd TD pass to Douglas, App State goes ahead 31-24App State 49% → 78% (+29)
- 2Q4 0:03Coleman 6-yd TD run, ties it 31-31App State 91% → 35% (−56)
- 3OTEvans run for a 11-yd lossApp State 25% → 71% (+46)
- 4OTHasselbeck 5-yd runApp State 37% → 14% (−23)
- 5OTLondon 40-yd field goal, App State goes ahead 34-31App State 14% → 100% (+86)
The five plays that swung it
- 1Q4 5:52Hasselbeck 4-yd TD pass to Douglas, App State goes ahead 31-24James Madison 51% → 22% (−29)
- 2Q4 0:03Coleman 6-yd TD run, ties it 31-31James Madison 9% → 65% (+56)
- 3OTEvans run for a 11-yd lossJames Madison 75% → 29% (−46)
- 4OTHasselbeck 5-yd runJames Madison 63% → 86% (+23)
- 5OTLondon 40-yd field goal, App State goes ahead 34-31James Madison 86% → 0% (−86)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q4 8:48JMU fans rage as Singleton completes pass without defensive pressure
You could give every single player on defense a weapon of their choice and they still couldn’t pressure the QB.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 6:03JMU fans rage at the decision to start Coleman after his interception
That's what happens when you don't take advantage of all the Appalachian State punts in the first half. The first turnover of the game becomes massive.
r/CFB game threadYeah no definitely makes sense to switch QBs every drive and in crunch time swap to the least accurate of the two
r/CFB game thread - Q4 1:20Fans criticize Billy Napier for rotating quarterbacks and poor clock management
Billy Napier clock management. Accept no substitutes.
r/CFB game threadLeave Billy in Boone ffs
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:47Fans criticize the color commentator for discussing targeting during an injury stoppageSame comment as the top reaction.
okay not targeting but get kneed in the head which might be worse
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:12Fans argue officials upheld a questionable first down spot for JMU
Sun Belt officials keeping the JMU playoff bid alive
r/CFB game threadFeel like the refs upheld the call on the 4th down spot just because they were annoyed at the App State players celebrating so hard lol
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (James Madison -12.5), at 22% for App State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show App State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 11:33Pettaway 1-yd TD runJames Madison goes ahead 7-0Q1, 11:33 · App State 0, James Madison 7▼6%App State’s chance to win, 19% to 13%▼6%App State’s chance to win, 19% to 13%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 4:48Evans 70-yd TD pass to WisloskiJames Madison leads 14-3Q2, 4:48 · App State 3, James Madison 14▼9%App State’s chance to win, 20% to 11%▼9%App State’s chance to win, 20% to 11%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 1:02Singleton 19-yd TD pass to Sanchezcuts it to 14-10Q2, 1:02 · App State 10, James Madison 14▲6%App State’s chance to win, 13% to 19%▲6%App State’s chance to win, 13% to 19%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 2:38Coleman 19-yd TD pass to KellerJames Madison leads 21-13Q3, 2:38 · App State 13, James Madison 21▼10%App State’s chance to win, 23% to 13%▼10%App State’s chance to win, 23% to 13%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 13:15Singleton 5-yd TD pass to Loftonties it 21-21Q4, 13:15 · App State 21, James Madison 21▲22%App State’s chance to win, 14% to 36%▲22%App State’s chance to win, 14% to 36%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 6:03Coleman intercepted by Phares at the JMU35returned 21 yardsQ4, 6:03 · App State 24, James Madison 24▲20%App State’s chance to win, 29% to 49%▲20%App State’s chance to win, 29% to 49%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 5:52Hasselbeck 4-yd TD pass to DouglasApp State goes ahead 31-24Q4, 5:52 · App State 31, James Madison 24▲29%App State’s chance to win, 49% to 78%▲29%App State’s chance to win, 49% to 78%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 3:32Singleton sacked for a 7-yd lossQ4, 3:32 · App State 31, James Madison 24▼5%App State’s chance to win, 95% to 90%▼5%App State’s chance to win, 95% to 90%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 0:03Coleman 6-yd TD runties it 31-31Q4, 0:03 · App State 31, James Madison 31▼56%App State’s chance to win, 91% to 35%▼56%App State’s chance to win, 91% to 35%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
App State scored on 7 of its 16 drives; James Madison on 5 of its 16.
App State’s drives are teal, James Madison’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From James Madison’s side
James Madison’s best moment: Coleman 6-yd TD run, ties it 31-31 (Q4 0:03). It lifted James Madison’s win chance by 56 points.
How James Madison fans took it: “GGs App State. You guys played great. Fans were great all game” r/CFB game thread
“Excited to watch Twitter guy eat poop”
When fans got loud
Roaring
Fans were loudest as the game came down to the end.
The jump was roaring; the crowd was busy.
The winner fell to 6%.
What it cost
James Madison’s chance to make the playoff fell from 22% to 13%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 21, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
James Madison plays vs Troy on Thu Oct 29 with a 13% chance to make the playoff. App State plays at Georgia Southern on Sat Oct 31 with a 3% chance to win the conference.
Box score
App State 34, James Madison 31
App State covered +12.5 by 15.5. The total, 65, went over 56.5.
| Team totals | James Madison | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 423 | 366 |
| Passing | 27 of 46, 331 yds | 29 of 44, 285 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 92 yds | 31 for 81 yds |
| First downs | 19 | 22 |
| Third down | 2 of 15 | 7 of 18 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 10 for 92 yds | 7 for 68 yds |
| Time of possession | 26:50 | 33:10 |
James Madison leaders
- Passing Camden Coleman 22 of 39, 232 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing George Pettaway 15 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Seth Cromwell 4 for 18 yds
- Receiving Braeden Wisloski 2 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Jeremiah Harrison 6 for 59 yds
App State leaders
- Passing Malachi Singleton 26 of 40, 271 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Jaquari Lewis 13 for 74 yds; Henry Hasselbeck 7 for 9 yds
- Receiving Nate Branch 6 for 73 yds; Sam Pickett III 6 for 63 yds
No rain through the game
59° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Kidd Brewer Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Watauga_cnty_hosp_helip airport, 2.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
James Madison · 7-0
Rated 85th in our preseason ratings, 37th now, up 48 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
App State · 4-2
Rated 98th in our preseason ratings, 119th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
App State
- Wk 2Wat East Carolina27-24
- Wk 3Wvs Charlotte26-21
- Wk 4Lat NC State31-41
- Wk 6Lvs Old Dominion3-10
- Wk 7Wat Coastal Carolina35-32
James Madison
- Wk 3Wat San Diego State26-13
- Wk 4Wat Old Dominion46-20
- Wk 5Wvs Marshall45-17
- Wk 6Wat Georgia Southern27-24
- Wk 7Wvs Georgia State49-22
Power rating by week
James Madison is rated 8.8 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: App State’s rushing EPA against James Madison, 68 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
App State’s rushing EPA against James Madison’s defense
App State offense, 19th percentile · James Madison defense, 87th
James Madison’s EPA/play against App State’s defense
James Madison offense, 89th percentile · App State defense, 51st
James Madison’s explosive plays against App State’s defense
James Madison offense, 55th percentile · App State defense, 78th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
App State leads the series 6-3
9 meetings since 1980 · James Madison won the last meeting
- 2025James Madison 58-10
- 2024App State 34-20
- 2023App State 26-23
- 2022James Madison 32-28
- 2008James Madison 35-32
Each line is App State’s chance to win through that meeting. App State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
App State fans are in a better mood than James Madison fans (88th percentile vs 20th among FBS fanbases), even with James Madison favored.
James Madison favored by 12.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
James Madison by 12.5, on the usual path until 6:03 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 416 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward James Madison.
Spread: +10.5 → +12.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
App State is worth +4.8 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 62nd percentile.
77% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (34-10 home, 24-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 103 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 218 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- App State 26, James Madison 23Nov 18, 2023
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- App State6th1-1
- James Madison1st4-0