Stanford 31-28 NC State (Oct 23, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: NC State · Stanford

NC State3-428

Stanford4-431Final

Fri, Oct 23 · Stanford Stadium, Stanford, Calif. · Crowd 13,949

Stanford beat NC State 31-28 as a 7.5-point underdog.

We had NC State favored. Stanford won.

Next: NC State vs California, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · NC State favored by 7

Next: Stanford at Louisville, Sat Oct 31 · 3:15 PM ET · Stanford underdog by 22.5

Bro did CJ pay this announcer to glaze him like this

An NC State fan

How it swung

The turning point: Bailey 58-yd TD pass to Desinor, cuts it to 14-7 (Q1, 2:12). Stanford went from 84% to 60% to win. Fans right then: “"WORST QB IN THE P4" DAVIS WARREN” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Stanford a 25% chance, and the closing betting line (Stanford was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.

FinalStanford 31-28 NC StateStanford wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 2:12Bailey 58-yd TD pass to Desinor, cuts it to 14-7Stanford 84% → 60% (−24)
2Q3 9:204th and 4Warren 5-yd TD pass to Brown, Stanford leads 28-14Stanford 72% → 88% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 2:12Bailey 58-yd TD pass to Desinor, cuts it to 14-7NC State 16% → 40% (+24)
2Q3 9:204th and 4Warren 5-yd TD pass to Brown, Stanford leads 28-14NC State 28% → 12% (−16)

How you going to get 12 players on a takeaknee

Q4 1:20 · A Stanford fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 4:13Warren completes pass to High as Stanford drives for touchdown"WORST QB IN THE P4" DAVIS WARRENr/CFB game thread
Q2 14:01Stanford fans rip the 4th and 20 screen call that resulted in a turnover on downsdid pritchard press the wrong button and didn't want to call a timeout lolr/CFB game threadFeels like a deep throw may have been a better play callr/CFB game thread
Q4 9:55Stanford converts 3rd and 17 with Warren pass to HallThey need 17 yards? No worries. We'll give them 20.r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:203-9 enjoyer where you atr/CFB game thread

Stanford’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (NC State -7.5), at 40% for Stanford (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Stanford or NC State flair (262 and 379); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Stanford’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Stanford scored on 5 of its 10 drives; NC State on 4 of its 10.

Stanford’s drives are teal, NC State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From NC State’s side

NC State’s best moment: Bailey 58-yd TD pass to Desinor, cuts it to 14-7 (Q1 2:12). It lifted NC State’s win chance by 24 points.

How NC State fans took it: “Losing because you threw away 2 timeouts for no reason earlier in the half is peak Dave” r/CFB game thread

How fans reacted

Quiet

It was the first quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

NC State fans

doeren“You're facing a Dave Doeren team. 20 seconds is basically 0 in his mind”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: every, let, getting, give.

Box score

Stanford 31, NC State 28

Stanford covered +7.5 by 10.5. The total, 59, went over 54.5.

Team totals	NC State	Stanford
Total yards	381	477
Passing	17 of 31, 256 yds	22 of 37, 303 yds
Rushing	33 for 125 yds	33 for 174 yds
First downs	21	27
Third down	8 of 14	5 of 13
Fourth down	1 of 1	2 of 3
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	6 for 55 yds	6 for 55 yds
Time of possession	29:59	30:01

NC State leaders

Passing CJ Bailey 17 of 30, 256 yds, 2 TD
Rushing CJ Bailey 9 for 59 yds; Davion Gause 15 for 49 yds
Receiving Deandre Desinor 3 for 79 yds, 1 TD; Keenan Jackson 3 for 56 yds, 1 TD

Stanford leaders

Passing Davis Warren 22 of 37, 303 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Micah Ford 22 for 150 yds; Caleb Hampton 5 for 22 yds
Receiving Caden High 9 for 103 yds, 1 TD; Micah Ford 3 for 58 yds

61° at the start

61° at kickoff · rain amounts not reported at this airport

October game-day temperatures at Stanford Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 2:12 left8:07 p.m.

NC State 7, Stanford 14 · Stanford 60% to win

60°

Bailey 58-yd TD pass to Desinor, cuts it to 14-7

Measured at Palo Alto Airport, 3.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

NC State · 3-3

Rated 44th in our preseason ratings, 63rd now, down 19 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Louisville as a 5.5-point underdog.

L 14-38 vs Wake ForestTop 25 No. 41 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as a 4-point underdog

W 31-28 vs LouisvilleTop 25 No. 50 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 41-31 vs App State No. 92 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 12.5-point favorite

L 31-35 @ Vanderbilt No. 42 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog

W 73-0 vs Richmond No. 166 of 668 teams

won by 73 as a 33.5-point favorite

L 8-34 @ VirginiaTop 25 No. 54 of 668 teams

lost by 26 as a 4-point underdog

Last three games

Stanford · 3-4

Rated 97th in our preseason ratings, 133rd now, down 36 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 34-7 vs Elon No. 230 of 668 teams

won by 27 as a 33.5-point favorite

L 7-58 @ Notre DameTop 25 No. 3 of 668 teams

lost by 51 as a 40.5-point underdog

L 3-57 @ Wake ForestTop 25 No. 58 of 668 teams

lost by 54 as a 14.5-point underdog

W 34-27 vs Georgia Tech No. 100 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 3-point underdog

L 7-35 @ DukeTop 25 No. 59 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 6-45 vs MiamiTop 25 No. 10 of 668 teams

lost by 39 as a 24.5-point underdog

W 37-27 vs Hawai'i No. 62 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 4.5-point favorite

Week by week

Stanford

Wk 3Lat Duke7-35
Wk 4Wvs Georgia Tech34-27
Wk 5Lat Wake Forest3-57
Wk 6Lat Notre Dame7-58
Wk 7Wvs Elon34-7

NC State

Wk 2Wvs Richmond73-0
Wk 3Lat Vanderbilt31-35
Wk 4Wvs App State41-31
Wk 5Wvs Louisville31-28
Wk 6Lvs Wake Forest14-38

Power rating by week

NC State is rated 6.6 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: NC State’s EPA/play against Stanford, 71 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

NC State’s EPA/play against Stanford’s defense
NC State offense, 71st percentile · Stanford defense, 0th
NC State’s passing EPA against Stanford’s defense
NC State offense, 75th percentile · Stanford defense, 6th
Stanford’s explosive plays against NC State’s defense
Stanford offense, 38th percentile · NC State defense, 21st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NC StateStanford

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

NC State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · NC State won the last meeting

2024NC State 59-28

Each line is Stanford’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Stanford fans are in a better mood than NC State fans (86th percentile vs 61st among FBS fanbases), even with NC State favored.

NC State favored by 7.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

NC State by 7.5, on the usual path until Q1 14:43

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Stanford is worth +2.4 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 19th percentile.

35% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (16-30 home, 16-31 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,390 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Stanford16th1-3
NC State13th1-2

Full ACC standings

Stanford upsets NC State 31-28