The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 8:17Sellers runs for a touchdown as South Carolina fans erupt in excitementIm sorry for ever slandering you my glorious pookie bear LaNorris Sellersr/CFB game thread
Q2 13:24Sellers throws interception to Metcalf as South Carolina fans lament blown leadI do not endorse this version of LaNorris Sellers.r/CFB game thread
Q2 1:34Officials flag Swain for targeting on MacIntyre pass, sparking fan outrageSwain basically giving them 14 directly. Moron.r/CFB game thread
Q4 12:35Tennessee fans argue officials rigged the game by nullifying three touchdownsDon’t tell me these refs don’t gamble on these games.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:45Tennessee fans rage over face mask penalty on Sellers runFlag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flag flagr/CFB game threadRefs have lost control of the game clearly. This is what you getr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:09Tennessee fans rage as officials uphold fumble ruling on MacIntyre sackWhoever you’re cheering for this ref crew honestly shouldn’t be working againr/CFB game threadSoft pi call nglr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:24Tennessee fans rage at broadcasters for suggesting a timeout they do not haveWe don’t have a timeout dumbassr/CFB game threadMust obvious Vegas momentr/CFB game thread
South Carolina’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (South Carolina -2.5), at 67% for South Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a South Carolina or Tennessee flair (1,340 and 2,278); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show South Carolina’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
South Carolina fans
swain“Everyone of these comebacks there’s a play or two you can point to where it shifts It’s gonna be that Swain penalty”
lead“Why wait till the second half to blow a lead when you can do it in the second quarter right guys?????”
dumb“Well at least he won't mess up any more drives with dumb penalties this game.”
fumble“Since the Swain penalty - Gave up a TD, a 5 yard loss, pick, gave up a TD, fumble”
Tennessee fans
refs“This is some of the most open, blatant manipulation I’ve seen by the refs in some time. Totally disrespectful to the sport.”
ref“No call on the DPI and the ref signaling a tip ball was just unbelievable”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, ball, back, now.
The winner fell to 9%.
What it cost
Tennessee’s chance to make the playoff fell from 37% to 26%.
Make the playoff
Tennessee · lost37% → ▼26%
South Carolina · won5% → ▲6%
Win the conference
Tennessee · lost7% → ▼3%
South Carolina · won0% → 0%
Win the title
Tennessee · lost2% → ▼1%
South Carolina · won0% → 0%
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Tennessee plays vs Kentucky on Sat Nov 7 with a 26% chance to make the playoff. South Carolina plays at Oklahoma on Sat Oct 31 with a 6% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24
South Carolina covered −2.5 by 0.5. The total, 51, went over 50.5.
Team totals
Tennessee
South Carolina
Total yards
320
344
Passing
16 of 23, 136 yds
18 of 32, 210 yds
Rushing
50 for 184 yds
31 for 134 yds
First downs
21
21
Third down
6 of 15
5 of 13
Fourth down
3 of 4
2 of 3
Turnovers
1
1
Penalties
12 for 90 yds
9 for 71 yds
Time of possession
34:12
25:48
Tennessee leaders
Passing George MacIntyre 16 of 23, 136 yds
Rushing DeSean Bishop 32 for 120 yds, 1 TD; Javin Gordon 6 for 41 yds
Receiving Braylon Staley 6 for 56 yds; Mike Matthews 5 for 47 yds
South Carolina leaders
Passing Lanorris Sellers 18 of 32, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Lanorris Sellers 18 for 96 yds, 2 TD; Matthew Fuller 9 for 28 yds
Receiving Mazeo Bennett 6 for 88 yds, 1 TD; DJ Black 3 for 48 yds
No rain and calm
71° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the northeast, gusts to 17
Tennessee 24, South Carolina 24 · South Carolina 56% to win
no rain · 66°
Sellers 4-yd TD run, ties it 24-24
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Columbia Owens Downtown Airport, 1.5 miles away, and Columbia Metropolitan Airport, 6.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Tennessee · 6-1
Rated 30th in our preseason ratings, 18th now, up 12 spots.
Three straight wins, capped by a 16-point win over Alabama as a 7.5-point underdog.
Tennessee is rated 2.6 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: South Carolina’s passing EPA against Tennessee, 60 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
South Carolina’s passing EPA against Tennessee’s defense
South Carolina offense, 35th percentile · Tennessee defense, 95th
South Carolina’s explosive plays against Tennessee’s defense
South Carolina offense, 50th percentile · Tennessee defense, 92nd
South Carolina’s EPA/play against Tennessee’s defense
South Carolina offense, 70th percentile · Tennessee defense, 93rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
TennesseeSouth Carolina
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Tennessee leads the series 29-11-2
42 meetings since 1903 · Tennessee won the last meeting
2023Tennessee 41-20
2022South Carolina 63-38
2021Tennessee 45-20
2020Tennessee 31-27
2019Tennessee 41-21
Each line is South Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. South Carolina is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
South Carolina fans are in a better mood than Tennessee fans (61st percentile vs 23rd among FBS fanbases), even with Tennessee favored.
Model · 37%
Line · 58%
South Carolina fans · 61st
Tennessee fans · 23rd
South Carolina favored by 2.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
South Carolina by 2.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward South Carolina.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +2.5 → −2.5 · Total: 51.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
South Carolina is worth +4.5 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 58th percentile.
53% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (27-24 home, 13-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.8 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
A South Carolina fan
South Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.